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國際油價急拉近4%!美伊戰事出現新變數 市場升高警戒
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自由时报6 hours agoEnergy2 min readChinaView translation

國際油價急拉近4%!美伊戰事出現新變數 市場升高警戒

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國際油價週四(5日)上漲,布蘭特原油期貨收每桶98.29美元,WTI收90.52美元。油輪在荷姆茲海峽遭攻擊引發供應擔憂,市場重新評估美伊衝突走向。沙烏地發布紅海警告,歐亞集團預估布蘭特價格可能攀升至每桶110至125美元。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

油輪在荷姆茲海峽遭攻擊,引發市場對石油供應的擔憂。投資人重新評估美國與以色列對伊朗戰爭的後續發展。沙烏地阿拉伯發布紅海延布潛在危險警報。英國海事貿易行動辦公室資料顯示,自上週日以來至少5艘船隻通報事故,攻擊頻率與10月相近。美國中期選舉後,民主黨取得國會控制權,市場擔心白宮可能將重心轉向外交政策行政權力,進一步升高與伊朗的戰爭。

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國際油價週四(5日)上漲。(法新社)

〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕由於油輪再度遭到攻擊,引發市場對石油供應的憂慮,加上投資人重新評估美國與以色列對伊朗戰爭的後續發展,國際油價週四(5日)上漲。

布蘭特原油期貨上漲3.67美元,漲幅3.88%,收在每桶98.29美元。

美國紐約西德州中級原油(WTI)期貨則上漲2.40美元,漲幅2.72%,收在每桶90.52美元。

伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊表示,有兩艘油輪及一艘拖船在試圖經由未經授權的航道通過荷姆茲海峽後,分別發生起火事故。

全球最大石油出口國沙烏地阿拉伯週四發布警報,提醒紅海石油出口樞紐延布(Yanbu)可能面臨潛在危險。

Gelber and Associates週四在一份報告中寫道:「今天的反彈反映出市場仍抱持謹慎態度,在外交進展尚未轉化為可靠的航運與交貨之前,投資人不願將石油運輸迅速恢復正常的預期提前反映在價格上。」

Lipow Oil Associates總裁利波(Andy Lipow)表示,有關油輪在中東海域撞上水雷,或遭無人機鎖定攻擊的報導,持續令原油市場感到擔憂。投資人也擔心,伊朗對於與美國談判的立場並未改變。

根據英國海事貿易行動辦公室(UKMTO)的資料,波斯灣油輪遇襲事件仍接近歷史紀錄水準,自上週日(1日)以來,至少已有5艘船隻通報發生相關事故。這樣的攻擊頻率與10月相近,當時該機構表示,當月共有35艘船隻遭到攻擊,是這場戰爭爆發以來單月最多的紀錄。

在週二(2日)舉行的美國期中選舉中,民主黨大勝川普所屬的共和黨,取得美國國會參眾兩院控制權,而由民主黨掌控的新一屆國會將於明年1月正式就任。花旗集團(Citi)在一份報告中表示,市場擔心期中選舉結束後,白宮可能將重心轉向運用總統在外交政策上的行政權力,並有可能進一步升高與伊朗的戰爭。

歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)在一份報告中表示,儘管近期油價下跌,但只要衝突進一步升級,布蘭特原油價格仍可能攀升至每桶110至125美元區間。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 若中東衝突進一步升級,布蘭特原油價格可能攀升至每桶110至125美元

    Possible · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • 油輪攻擊的具體責任方是誰?
  • 沙烏地紅海延布的具體危險來源為何?
  • 美國中期選舉後白宮對伊朗政策的具體調整方向是什麼?

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