Huang Weihan predicts that Shen Boyang will win 40% of the vote, saying that Jiang Wanan’s adjustment of strategy shows that he knows that the situation is unfavorable

The nine-in-one general election at the end of 2026 is gradually approaching, and the Taipei City election situation has also attracted much attention from the outside world. Huang Weihan, a veteran media person who had previously predicted that Shen Boyang would win 40% of the votes and 500,000 votes, pointed out that when he proposed this prediction in May, the blue camp laughed at him, and pointed out that although the current ocean current is obviously rising, Shen Boyang has not yet defeated Jiang Wanan, but a change in Jiang Wanan's approach also shows that Jiang knows that he "does not win that much." Huang Weihan also analyzed the voter structure, saying that Shen Boyang would have a very difficult time in 3 of the 12 districts in Beishi City, 4 districts would have to work hard, and 5 districts would have to expand.

The Democratic Progressive Party's Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Boyang challenged the current mayor Chiang Wanan. In May this year, veteran media person Huang Weihan predicted that Shen Boyang would get at least 40% of the vote, 500,000 votes, and all 25 DPP city councilors would be elected, which triggered a lot of discussion.

Please read on...

Huang Weihan posted a post on Facebook late last night with the title "Ocean Currents are Rising" and pointed out that he still remembers when he first proposed "40%, 500,000 votes, 25 seat home runs" in May, the blue camp was ridiculed. That sense of déjà vu reminded him of the time in 2018 when he said that Han Kuo-yu and Kaohsiung might win, but no one in Green Camp believed it.

"The moment a miracle happens, Taipei will write a record." Huang Weihan bluntly said that although the Taiwanese faction is looking forward to hearing the prediction that "Shen Boyang will win," his current view is still conservative. The ocean currents are obviously rising, but there is no evidence that Shen Boyang can defeat Chiang Wanan. Huang Weihan also emphasized, don’t forget, this is Taipei, and the voter structure is far more blue than green.

Huang Weihan mentioned that he also conducted an analysis of the voter structure in the 12 districts of the North City. For Shen Boyang, did "40%" stabilize his base? "43%" reaches Su Zhenchang's threshold? Is "45%" equivalent to A-Bian disorder? Or can we really create a miracle of winning more than 50% of the one-on-one matches? Huang Weihan said bluntly, "Don't worry, we'll wait until the citizens of Dalian North are transferred on 9/22."

Huang Weihan also shared a video of him analyzing the Taipei election situation on a political commentary program. The content mentioned that Huang Weihan quoted the vote rates of each district in the 2022 Taipei mayoral election and pointed out that 3 of the 12 districts are very difficult, and 4 districts are difficult. Working hard, there are 5 districts that need to be expanded. He also emphasized that he was the governor of the triangle last time, but he believes that Chen Shizhong and Shen Boyang can win. There is no suspense in the light green part in the middle, so the most important thing now is to let more people know Shen Boyang.

Huang Weihan also pointed out that there is no Huang Shanshan this time, so where that part of the votes will go is still a question. However, Huang Weihan mentioned that originally Jiang Wanan said that he could not stand alone for the candidates of the Popular Party, but now he wants to do it again because Jiang Wanan wants to get the votes of the Bai camp, because he (Chiang) knows that he "didn't win that much."

Huang Weihan reiterated that he believes that Jiang Wanan still wins, but not by as much. In the past, Huang Shanshan's votes were a must-win for military strategists. At present, Shen Boyang has not criticized the People's Party. As for Chen Shizhong's votes in Neihu, Nangang and Wenshan in the past, which did not exceed 30%, Shen Boyang must know that these are areas where Green Camp is relatively weak.

As for Songshan, Zhongzheng, Xinyi and Daan, Chen Shizhong won about 30%, which is also the top priority, and this time he is no longer the governor of the triangle. Therefore, the votes in these four districts must go higher to narrow the gap even further.