(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Hyo-jeong and Jeon Myeong-hoon = As the government faces difficulties in consultations with the United States to complete the verification of the Full Operational Capability (FOC) of the Future Combined Forces Command, which was targeted this year for the early transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON), attention is being paid to whether it will attempt to break through the 'top-down' method in the future.
As the differences in views between the U.S. military authorities, who say that the criteria for evaluating the conditions for OPCON transfer may change depending on changes in the security situation, and the South Korean government, which says that hurdles should not be raised, are publicly revealed, there is a possibility that the issue of OPCON transfer will emerge as a difficult issue between Korea and the United States in the future.
General Xavier Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces in Korea, said at a seminar hosted by the U.S. think tank 'Gold Institute for International Strategic Studies' held in Washington, D.C. on the 14th (local time) regarding the transfer of wartime operational control, "None of us can say that conditions have not changed."
He also mentioned North Korea's recent missile launches and said, "Conditions have changed and we have changed our plans, so there are new standards that we must adhere to."
This is interpreted as expressing the view that the standards for determining whether the conditions for wartime operational control transfer are met may vary depending on changes in the security situation, such as the level of threat from North Korea.
However, at a regular briefing on the 15th, Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Jeong Bit-na said, “If the goalposts continue to be moved, I don’t think the transfer of wartime operational control will ever be possible,” on the premise of speaking in a “personal capacity.”
He emphasized that the evaluation criteria should not change in a situation where the ROK and the United States agreed on the 'Conditions-based OPCON Transition Plan' (COTP) in 2015 and have been pursuing OPCON transfer accordingly.
In accordance with COTP, the ROK and the United States are going through a process to verify whether the Future Combined Forces Command (Future Combined Forces Command), which will be commanded by a four-star general in the ROK military, has secured mission performance capabilities in three stages: basic operating capability (IOC), FOC, and full mission capability (FMC). For this purpose, joint evaluation of the necessary capabilities and systems has been conducted every year.
The second stage, the FOC evaluation, was completed in 2022, and the government's plan was to complete verification of this at the ROK-US Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) held by the defense ministers of the two countries this year and propose a target year for OPCON transfer to the military commanders of both countries.
However, it is known that the position between Korea and the United States has not yet been narrowed down regarding whether the conditions necessary for FOC verification are met. Although the ROK-U.S. joint evaluation process regarding capabilities planned for this year has been completed, it is reported that differences of opinion remain over the evaluation results.
In particular, the conditions for OPCON transfer include both quantitative factors, such as the level of progress in deploying weapons systems, and qualitative factors, such as an evaluation of overall mission performance capabilities. It is observed that narrowing the differences in opinions between South Korea and the United States may be more difficult regarding whether the qualitative factors are met.
Minister of National Defense Kang Shin-cheol said in a meeting with reporters last month, "The conditions are satisfied numerically, but the perspective on whether they are satisfied can be quite different, and this is an 'art' (qualitative)," and "Science (quantitative elements) are sufficient."
A military official explained, “There are clearly factors that cannot be used to evaluate whether the conditions are met simply through quantitative criteria, such as the number of specific weapon systems.”
In the end, it is predicted that consultations at a political level will be necessary to resolve the views of the U.S. military authorities that the criteria for meeting conditions may vary, and the differences in views between Korea and the United States surrounding qualitative factors.
An opportunity for such discussions could be provided if Minister of National Defense Kang Shin-cheol and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth attend the ASEAN Enlarged Defense Ministers' Meeting (ADMM+) to be held in the Philippines at the end of this month.
If the leaders of Korea and the United States meet face-to-face during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in Shenzhen, China on the 18th and 19th of next month, it could be another opportunity for 'top-down' consultations.
However, some point out that efforts are needed to broaden consensus with the U.S. military authorities, such as Commander Brunson, who has been making conservative judgments about whether the conditions are met and has continued to speak out.
The promotion of wartime operational control transfer is structured to be discussed in the SCM through the Permanent Military Committee (PMC), a working-level discussion between the USFK Commander, a senior officer of the USFK, and the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, and the ROK-US Military Committee Meeting (MCM), a military-level discussion between the ROK-US Joint Chiefs of Staff. Afterwards, the final decision will be made by the military commanders of both countries.
Kim Jeong-seop, director of the Sejong Institute, said, “The top-down is important, but the commander of the US Forces in Korea, who reports to Washington and influences public opinion, is also important,” and suggested that Minister Kang Shin-cheol should meet frequently with Commander Brunson and focus on discussions related to wartime operational control.
Minister Kang Shin-cheol said at the National Assembly Legislation and Judiciary Committee's audit of military courts on this day that trust between Korea and the United States must be guaranteed, adding, "We must closely cooperate by discussing the comments of the subordinate commander (Commander Brunson) and these matters."
Some point out that efforts are needed to manage the overall ROK-U.S. relationship stably in a situation where conflict fronts between Korea and the U.S. have spread across all fronts, such as restrictions on investment in the U.S. and information sharing.
Shin Beom-cheol, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, pointed out, "We can bring in wartime operational control through a political decision, but in that case, we will have to deal with conflicts with the U.S. Forces Korea Command and our security risks," and added, "If we are going to bring it in that way, we must not manage the ROK-U.S. relationship as poorly as it is now."
