The dispute between Washington and Tehran focuses on negotiating priorities: nuclear versus the Strait of Hormuz

The fundamental differences in the course of indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran have become focused on agenda priorities, as the United States adheres to including the Iranian nuclear program in any agreement, while Iran insists on giving priority to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the naval blockade imposed on its ports, and lifting sanctions.

Tehran confirms its willingness to continue the diplomatic path, but in return it escalates its military tone, warning of a stronger response if Washington resumes its attacks. These developments came after Iran received, through mediators, the American response to its proposal known as the “7-Day Plan,” which it presented during the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York, which stipulates the reopening of the Strait within a week, provided that Washington adheres to a set of Iranian demands, most notably ending the naval blockade imposed on its ports and lifting economic sanctions.

In this regard, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf confirmed on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened unless the United States fulfills the seven Iranian conditions contained in the interim memorandum of understanding reached by the two parties last June, stressing that Tehran’s position on this issue is clear and firm.

Ghalibaf said, according to what was reported by official Iranian media, that Washington had recently submitted proposals through mediators, despite the difference in public American statements regarding the negotiations. He added that the stage of diplomatic procrastination and imposing unilateral demands has ended, in reference to Tehran's refusal to make concessions that are not matched by concrete American steps.

Iran had presented its plan during the United Nations General Assembly meetings in September, proposing to reopen the Strait within 7 days of the start of implementing the understandings, including stopping hostilities, ending the US blockade on its ports, and releasing frozen Iranian assets abroad estimated at about $12 billion, in addition to lifting the sanctions imposed on Iranian oil exports.

The plan is based on a previous memorandum of understanding that contributed to reaching a brief ceasefire in June, and included understandings regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian nuclear program. However, disagreements regarding the order of implementation of commitments, and the guarantees required from each party, prevented moving to a final agreement.

Disagreement over nuclear priority

On the other hand, Washington is still focusing on the Iranian nuclear file as a fundamental focus for any settlement, which Tehran considers to be a departure from the current priorities that it sees as starting with ending the naval blockade and restoring shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei said on Sunday that American observations on the latest proposal are very similar to Washington’s previous positions. Because it is focused on the nuclear program, while Iran's interest is currently focused on the Strait, and the return of security to this vital waterway.

Baghaei added that restoring navigation security requires the United States to take clear steps, including ending the disruption of Iranian maritime trade and lifting the blockade on ports. He stressed that Tehran has clarified its position on the American response through mediators, but it is still studying some additional points that it intends to convey to Washington through diplomatic channels.

The Iranian spokesman denied that his country had offered to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of its nuclear facilities in exchange for easing US sanctions, stressing that Tehran has not entered into nuclear negotiations with Washington at the current stage.

Trump: Iran has given up nuclear weapons

US President Donald Trump had said that Iran had effectively abandoned any plans to possess a nuclear weapon, without clarifying the basis on which he based this assessment, indicating that he would take a decision on the next steps, while expressing his willingness to ease sanctions and release Iranian funds frozen abroad in exchange for “tangible progress” in the nuclear file.

In this context, an official familiar with the talks said that the document that was circulated includes a 7-day confidence-building period, with the aim of returning the two parties to an improved version of the previous memorandum of understanding, including taking concrete steps regarding the nuclear program. He explained that the main disagreement is not necessarily related to the components of the plan, as much as it is related to the order in which commitments are implemented.

For his part, Iranian Assistant Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced that Tehran is currently studying the American comments on its proposal, which was explained by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York, stressing that the final position will be announced through the appropriate channels after completing the review. He added that Iran is also preparing for other scenarios, without providing details about their nature.

Araghchi: There is no military solution

In parallel with the diplomatic moves, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that resorting to the military option or tightening sanctions would not lead to an end to the conflict, calling on Washington to choose negotiation instead of confrontation.

Araghchi said, during his meeting with foreign ambassadors and diplomats in Tehran on Sunday, that “there is no military solution, and there is no solution based on new sanctions,” stressing that negotiations based on justice and fairness alone can lead to a settlement of the conflict.

He added that his country was still ready to reach a solution, which he described as honorable and just, but he stressed that any American return to military operations would be met with a stronger response than before. He said that Iran is more prepared than ever to defend itself, and that it will take the necessary measures if Washington chooses the path of confrontation.

These warnings come at a time when Qatari mediation efforts continue to convey messages between the two parties, while reports indicate that senior officials in the Trump administration held a meeting at Camp David on Friday to discuss the next steps towards Iran and the situation in Yemen.

The United States has stopped its strikes on Iran since September 1, according to reports, despite continuing tensions in the region and ships in the Strait of Hormuz being subjected to repeated accidents.

Expanding missile capabilities

On the military level, Iran announced its intention to increase the range of its missiles, in a move it said came in response to field developments and the deployment of American forces close to its coast.

Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akrami Nia said that the war demonstrated the necessity of expanding the range of Iranian missiles, noting that Tehran had already begun taking steps in this direction. He added, in statements reported by Fars News Agency, that American forces are currently stationed at a distance of up to 1,000 kilometers from the Iranian coast.

Sources had told Reuters that Iran is preparing for a broader military response if the United States resumes its comprehensive attacks, which reflects the continued risks of escalation despite the relative calm witnessed in recent weeks.

Hormuz is at the heart of the economic crisis

The Strait of Hormuz constitutes one of the most prominent axes of conflict between Tehran and Washington, given its strategic importance to global energy supplies. Before the outbreak of war, about a fifth of the world's supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas passed through it. Which makes any disruption to navigation traffic therein have direct repercussions on energy markets and international trade.

Since the outbreak of war, Iran has asserted its control over the strait, while the United States has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran requires ships wishing to cross to obtain its approval, while oil tankers are crossing the corridor in increasing numbers to exit the Gulf under American protection.

Preliminary data from Kpler, a company specializing in tracking maritime traffic, showed that average flows of non-Iranian crude oil coming from the Gulf states and Iraq through the strait reached 13.5 million barrels per day between September 22 and 28, a level equivalent to pre-war levels, despite continuing security tensions.

In parallel with the blockade, Washington escalated its economic pressure on Tehran, as at the end of August it imposed new sanctions that included the Iranian aviation sector, as part of a campaign aimed at increasing pressure on the Iranian economy. Data from the “Flight Radar 24” platform showed a decrease in the number of flights to and from Tehran International Airport by 42 percent since the sanctions came into effect, despite the continuation of flights to major destinations, including Turkey and China.

Between Iran's adherence to its seven conditions, and Washington's insistence on addressing the nuclear issue, the chances of reaching a quick settlement appear limited, in light of the continuing military threats and economic pressures. However, the two parties still maintain indirect channels of communication, which keeps the door open for the resumption of negotiations.

A new crisis has erupted between Turkey and Greece, threatening a confrontation between their fleets in the Aegean Sea, against the backdrop of Athens’ announcement of its readiness to resume the “Great Marine Electrical Interconnection” project, via a cable extending under the waters of the Mediterranean Sea to Cyprus and all the way to Israel.

As a result, Turkey issued a maritime navigation notice (NAFTEX) regarding conducting military maneuvers in 5 regions in the central sector of the Aegean Sea, between September 25 and October 27, while Greece issued a counter-notice covering the period from October 12 to 20.

Turkey insists on the need to coordinate with it regarding the route of the electric cable and obtain written approval to begin its implementation, which Greece rejected, usually because the issuance of a maritime navigation notification (NAFTEX) from the French company implementing the project would constitute sufficient notification.

A Turkish position and a Greek response

The Turkish Ministry of Defense reaffirmed that any unauthorized activities will not be allowed in the area of the continental shelf that it declared to the United Nations.

Ministry spokesman, Zeki Akturk, said during a press briefing on Thursday that, according to international law, coordination must be made in advance with his country, as a coastal state, regarding any activities related to laying cables or pipelines or conducting scientific research on its continental shelf, which was determined according to the maritime border demarcation agreements concluded with the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” and Libya in the eastern Mediterranean, which were announced to the United Nations on March 18, 2020, stressing the rejection of any activity. It is not authorized on its continental shelf.

In an immediate response to Turkey's position, Greek government spokesman, Pavlos Marinis, said that the issue of obtaining permission is not up for discussion, and the project will progress normally according to established plans. Greek Foreign Ministry spokesman Giorgos Yerapetris also said that the project passes through maritime areas that are not subject to Turkish sovereignty, and that Türkiye may be notified via navigation notices (NAFTEX).

Previous Greek attempts

Türkiye had previously refused to start implementing the project. The representative of the Greek New Democracy Party, Angelos Syrigos, revealed that they had to stop seabed research twice, in July and November 2024, after 5 Turkish warships arrived in the area near the island of Crete.

Syrigos said, in a television interview on Sunday, “The circumstances are different this time, and that permission will not be requested from Turkey, and the French research ship can inform the Turkish side by notifying the navigators (NAFTEX), and this is not considered a request for permission.”

The French Meridiam Group acquired a majority stake of 66 percent in the project to enhance its sustainability and overcome geopolitical obstacles. Greek reports indicated a study on adjusting the route to avoid the Turkish marine park south of the island of Kastellorizo, or Meis, according to the Turkish name, while other reports denied the existence of a basis for these amendments. Because the main path is located relatively far from that area.

The “Great Marine Electrical Interconnection” project extends from the Greek island of Crete through Cyprus to Israel. In its first phase, it passes from Crete to southern Cyprus at a distance of about 898 kilometers, with a connection with Israel later through an additional section extending about 310 kilometers, in addition to limited land sections. The cable is planned to extend across the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea at depths that may exceed 3 kilometers.

The European Commission believes that by connecting with Europe via Greece, Cyprus' energy isolation will be broken, and it will be able to import electricity when needed, and export the surplus when its system produces more energy than local demand, especially from renewable sources.

Warning of military confrontation

Commenting on the mutual Turkish and Greek notifications, the Turkish strategic expert, Kemal Ulgar, warned of the danger of friction between foreign alliances in the region and the Turkish and Greek fleets on the ground, pointing out that military maneuvers conducted simultaneously in the same regions and dates may lead to a direct confrontation between the Turkish and Greek fleets.

He pointed out that Turkey was the first to issue air navigation notices (NOTAM) and that the maneuvers in the five regions in the Aegean Sea during this October are clearly defined and international organizations have been informed of them. If Turkey insists on this maneuver, the Turkish and Greek fleets will confront each other in the coming days.

Turkish media said that Ankara later canceled the air navigation notices.

Ulgar indicated, in a television interview on Sunday, that some of the Turkish maneuvers include live firing and testing new types of missile systems launched from ships, pointing out that Greece conducted a maneuver near the island of Crete, and placed its units in Thrace and naval elements of the Joint Command for the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Islands on alert, and also completed 3 maneuvers in international waters open to Turkish use. On the other hand, last September, Türkiye conducted the “Sea Wolf 2026” exercise in the Aegean Sea, the Mediterranean and the Black Seas.

He explained that, based on the notices issued by Turkey, it is not permissible for any civilian or military ships to be present in the area it specified, otherwise liability for incidents would arise, warning that this dual military exercise, on the same date and place, may develop into a hot conflict instigated by Israel or America.