
The average size of sardines in the Adriatic Sea has fallen by 3-4 cm over the past two decades due to overfishing and climate change, threatening Croatia's longstanding canned fish industry, which faces competition from tourism and economic shifts, with sea temperatures rising faster than the global average.
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The history of the canned fish industry in Croatia goes back to the late nineteenth century, when it provided employment opportunities for the poor coastal population, especially women, and witnessed its peak with about 35 factories in Istria, Dalmatia and the islands before it decreased to four factories today due to the economic shift towards tourism.
Sardine numbers in the Adriatic Sea are declining, a news site from the Croatian region of Istria reported at the beginning of the year. Researchers have found that the average size of sardines has decreased by three to four centimeters over the past two decades.
This news caused a lot of buzz because these fish are very popular as food with people outside the coasts but especially in this region. There are even festivals dedicated to it. However, humans are to blame for this shrinkage: researchers have identified overfishing and climate change as causes.
After a summer that witnessed a record heat wave, during which surface temperatures in the Adriatic Sea rose to 30 degrees Celsius, the future of sardines in the region has become more uncertain. With it, the local canned fish industry, one of the oldest industrial sectors on the Croatian coast, faces an increasing threat. These developments represent a great loss for many, not only from an economic standpoint, but also because of the symbolic value the sector holds. Its decline means the disappearance of another industry from Croatia. The coastal areas overlooking the Adriatic Sea had already witnessed a widespread wave of deindustrialization since the 1990s, which left a growing sense of frustration among the population.
The Adriatic Sea is warming above average
The prospect of another chapter ending soon is now more likely. The Adriatic Sea, which is a dead-end sea lane, is warming much faster than other areas of the Mediterranean. A Croatian research institute has found that the temperature of deep waters has risen four times over the past decade compared to temperatures over the previous century. These changes also have multiple impacts on natural habitats. For sardines, which need certain temperatures to reproduce, conditions are becoming increasingly unsuitable.
Without sardines, there are no cans of sardines preserved in oil. Mirna, based in the picturesque coastal town of Rovinj in the Istrian region, still promotes its products as a “superfood from the Adriatic Sea.” The company is proud to use sardines caught from the waters of the Adriatic, as the “little blue fish,” as it is called in Croatia, is one of the country’s favorite seafood due to its distinctive taste. At least, that's what the promotional campaigns confirm.
A past to be proud of
Residents are also proud of their ancient history. The canned fish industry was one of the first industries to provide paid employment opportunities for residents of the previously poor coastal areas of Istria and Dalmatia. More precisely, it provided these opportunities for women in particular, as the overwhelming majority of factory workers were, and still are, female. Men are rarely seen on production lines, while they largely dominate management positions.
The roots of the industry in this region go back to the late 19th century when Habsburg and French companies exploited the sardine wealth of the Adriatic Sea for manufacturing. The first fish canning factory on the territory of present-day Croatia was opened in 1882 in Rovinj. Karl Warhanek, the Austro-Hungarian imperial royal supplier and businessman, single-handedly ran twelve fish canning factories extending from the Trieste region in the north to the southern islands of Dalmatia.
In most of these regions, fish canneries were the only evidence of an industrial revolution that largely bypassed Dalmatia, then part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Over the following decades, dozens of canning factories were established, until their number reached about 35 factories distributed between Istria, Dalmatia, and the Croatian islands.
The importance of these factories was not limited to providing wages for their workers. Former female workers still talk proudly about their work, despite the hardship it entailed. During the Yugoslav socialist era in particular, food canning factories in marginalized areas provided women with the opportunity to earn a regular income and enjoy many social benefits. It also played an important role in strengthening social ties and establishing community spirit within local communities.
Tourism versus fish processing industry
Today there are only four canned food factories left in Croatia. This decline points to another challenge facing this industry, which thus represents a model of economic transformation in Croatia: there is no longer room on the coast for manufacturing industry besides tourism in the literal sense of the word because delicatessen factories are often located in places that hotel developers have in mind. At the same time, tourists are not very enthusiastic about the smells emanating from industrial fish processing.
In Banjoli, close to Pula, the largest city in Istria, there is today a large hotel in the place that once housed a sardine factory, of which today only a monument remains. Wages in this sector are currently low and it has difficulty recruiting local workers as more money can be made on the coast by renting rooms to tourists.
When the Mirna company in Rovinj upgraded its production facilities and added a second shift a few years ago, it had to bring in workers from poorer regions of the Croatian interior, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. In some cases, the fish processing industry has moved away from the fishing sources themselves to areas where cheap labor is available; The equipment of a fish canning factory on the island of Vis was transferred about twenty years ago to the city of Niš in southern Serbia.
The transfer of industries is a natural part of economic transformations. However, local communities do not see it as just an economic change, but also see it as the end of long-standing industrial traditions and an additional step towards almost complete dependence on tourism. The latter often provide only seasonal jobs, put infrastructure under severe pressure during the summer months, and the building boom distorts the coastal landscape and turns historic city centers into spaces dominated by souvenir shops.
In addition, tourism flows remain subject to volatility and uncertainty, just as sardine stocks do. This was clearly evident during the Corona pandemic, when tourists suddenly stopped coming, exposing the fragility of over-reliance on one sector of the local economy.
Ultimately, climate change threatens not only the little bluefish, but also tourism, as it will become too hot for visitors. The future outlook on the Adriatic coast has become unpredictable not only for the sardines that live in the water, but also for the people who live on its banks.
+ Prof. Dr. Ulf Brunbauer is a historian specializing in the history of Southeastern Europe and Scientific Director of the Leibniz Institute for Research on Eastern and Southeastern Europe in Regensburg. His areas of interest include maritime industries and migration movements.
Prepared in Arabic by: M.A.M
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Sardine numbers in the Adriatic Sea will continue to decline if action is not taken to reduce overfishing and mitigate the effects of climate change
Likely · Within months

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