In urban development, if we do not advance, we will retreat.
For example, in recent years, the competition between Guangzhou and Chongqing for the “Fourth GDP City” has been very intense. In the first half of 2026, Guangzhou's GDP was only 65.717 billion yuan less than Chongqing. However, in the first quarter of this year, Guangzhou regained its long-lost "fourth" ranking from Chongqing with a brilliant GDP growth rate of 6%.
The winner of this tug-of-war is increasingly clearly pointing to the automobile industry.
Recently, regarding the automobile industry, the two cities have become "busy" again. On October 8, FAW-GAC officially "joined hands". Earlier, Huawei cooperated with Chongqing car company Cyrus for adjustments.
Behind this is not only a shift in the growth logic of China's automobile industry, but also a renewed emphasis on the automobile industry in Guangzhou and Chongqing.
Both cities are important centers of China's automobile industry, but they have followed different curves in the past few years. In 2024, the added value of Guangzhou's designated automobile manufacturing industry will drop by 18.2% year-on-year, and automobile production will drop by 20%. This city, which has been the "No. 1 automobile city in China" for many consecutive years, has experienced the pain of transformation in the new energy wave.
Chongqing is just the opposite. In 2025, Chongqing's automobile production will reach 2.788 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. It has returned to "China's No. 1 Automobile City" after many years. The output of new energy vehicles has increased by 36% to 1.296 million units, and the scale of the industrial cluster has exceeded 800 billion yuan.
Between an increase and a decrease, the GDP rankings of the two cities flipped.
By the first quarter of 2026, the story has reversed again. The output of new energy vehicles in Guangzhou reached 145,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.1%. The cumulative growth rate of the added value of the automobile manufacturing industry has turned positive for the first time since 2024, with an increase of 5.5%. The growth rate of Chongqing's new energy vehicle production fell back to 9.7%, slower than the same period in 2025.
Guangzhou’s “deep V rebound” relies on the bottoming out of the automobile industry.
In the past, Guangzhou's automobile industry relied heavily on two joint venture brands, Guangben and Guangfeng, and once faltered in the new energy transformation. With the rise of local new energy car companies such as GAC Eon and Xpeng, the dependence on joint ventures is fading away, and independent new energy sources are beginning to take over.
What deserves more attention are the actions at the capital level.
On October 8, FAW, Toyota and GAC signed a new strategic cooperation framework agreement. GAC Group plans to purchase 50% of FAW Toyota's equity held by FAW through the issuance of shares. China FAW will become an important strategic shareholder of GAC Group.
For Guangzhou, the significance of this move is to incorporate FAW Toyota into the GAC system through capital ties, which not only consolidates the foundation of the joint venture, but also buys time and resources for new energy transformation.
It is worth mentioning that Chongqing’s automobile story is equally exciting, but hidden worries are also emerging. Take Thalys as an example. In the first half of 2026, Thalys's net profit attributable to its parent company was a loss of 1.717 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 2.941 billion yuan in the same period last year.
According to reports, based on the cooperation model with Huawei, for every vehicle sold by Cyrus in the past four years, Cyrus had to pay Huawei for technology licensing, parts procurement and channel fees. The outside world generally believes that profit distribution is the main reason for the dramatic "flash breakup and reunion" between Huawei and Thalys from the end of September to the beginning of October.
On the surface, it is a contract game between enterprises. For Chongqing, who has the right to distribute profits in the industrial chain is the key to determining how far the city's automobile industry can go.
Back to the topic of "Fourth City". Although the automobile industry is a direct dimension of competition between the two cities, what determines the outcome is the depth of the industrial structure.
Guangzhou’s trump card is not just cars. The secondary industry in Guangzhou accounts for only 24.1%, and the tertiary industry is as high as 74.9%. It is a typical city that "promotes both industry and commerce and integrates manufacturing and services". In the consumption-driven era, this structure means stronger anti-cyclical capabilities.
Chongqing’s advantage lies in the integrity of its industrial system. From Changan to Thalys, from traditional fuel to smart electric, Chongqing has a complete automotive industry chain.
FAW-GAC's restructuring and cooperation with Huawei Cyrus are just two footnotes in this long competition. Although the automobile industry is the direct winner of the battle for the fourth city, what really determines the final ownership is not the output number in a certain year, but which city can take the lead in completing the upgrade of the industrial structure and finding a second growth curve in addition to car manufacturing.
