The two aircraft carriers currently deployed by the United States in East Asia have both left the Indo-Pacific - the USS Abraham Lincoln ended its nearly nine-month deployment to support military operations against Iran and sailed to Thailand for rest and recuperation before setting sail on September 6. The USS George Washington, whose home port is in Yokosuka, Japan, was transferred to the Middle East to take over the role of the Lincoln. This means that there are currently no US aircraft carriers "stationed" in the Indo-Pacific region.
Aircraft carriers have long been a key tool for the White House in dealing with tensions across the Taiwan Strait, often deployed at times of crisis to try to stabilize the situation.
This window period coincides with the eve of 2027 - the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. It has long been regarded by some analysts as a sensitive year when Beijing may take action against Taiwan. However, there may be a situation where China deploys three aircraft carriers at the same time and the United States has zero presence in East Asia.
Therefore, is the change in U.S. military deployment, especially the aircraft carrier, a temporary deployment, or will it change the region's judgment on the U.S.'s will to intervene? How does Taiwan deal with this?
US aircraft carrier: "psychological reassurance" for allies
The outbreak of the US-Iran war, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, and the huge pressure on military expenditures have once again made Washington's military deployment the focus of the outside world. The Indo-Pacific region has been regarded to a certain extent as a logistics warehouse for the Middle East battlefield: the "Patriot" air defense system of the US military in South Korea was discussed to be transferred to the Middle East; Japan's Yokosuka aircraft carrier was sent to replace the "Lincoln"; there was a vacuum in Asia-Pacific aircraft carrier deployment; the scale of US-South Korea joint military exercises was also reduced.
Among them, the movements of aircraft carriers are particularly interesting. Evan Sankey, an analyst on U.S.-China relations at the Cato Institute, told the Associated Press that aircraft carriers provide psychological reassurance to U.S. allies. The absence of aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific "will reinforce the overall feeling that the United States is distracted by developments in the Middle East."
Dr. Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, emphasized to the BBC that the role of US aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific is mainly political: "The deployment of aircraft carriers is to demonstrate the presence of the United States and the country's will to intervene. If there are no deployable aircraft carriers, people in the region will worry about whether the United States really intends to intervene once China invades Taiwan or other places."
Nagao Ken also pointed out that the lack of deployable aircraft carriers is a political issue; from a military perspective, it is "not that serious."
double signal
Taiwan's "United Daily News" published an editorial from the perspective of "suspicious America" to analyze: The US military's deployment of aircraft carriers and missiles due to the war in Iran not only reflects US President Donald Trump's (Trump's) consistent style of "revenge" against countries that have opposed him (such as South Korea), but also sends a message to Taiwan, an ally that relies on the United States, "Don't just rely on the United States" or "The mountain of support will fall".
However, Raymond Powell, a retired U.S. Air Force colonel and director of the SeaLight Foundation, an ocean transparency initiative, emphasized to BBC Chinese that what he is more worried about is not the military window itself, but the signal it sends to the region: "Beijing will interpret it as a symbol of American decline and distraction," and Chinese state media has also vigorously promoted this narrative.
Should Taiwan be worried?
So, should Taiwan be worried?
From Beijing's perspective, Ken Nagao believes that Beijing "always wants" to escalate pressure in gray areas, but will be more cautious under the Trump administration: "China is wary of him because he is unpredictable. Trump has not hesitated to act on Venezuela and Iran. This means that Beijing cannot underestimate him. If it is Biden, I think the (Indo-Pacific) situation will be more dangerous."
Powell analyzed to the BBC that Beijing's strategy still focuses on gray zone operations and political warfare, that is, "conquering the enemy without fighting" - convincing the region that the United States is too weak and too distracted, and that now is the time to accept the coming "China-led order" and make early concessions.
"What China really wants to convince all parties in the region is: China's rise and the United States' retreat are a foregone conclusion. Accepting this foregone conclusion is the surest path to security and prosperity," Powell said.
Some analysts have also focused on the recent electoral cycles in the Indo-Pacific region: "This 'the United States can't save you' argument is particularly lethal in places like Manila and Taipei where elections are about to be held. Beijing clearly intends to use this to influence the direction of the election."
In other words, this window period is more like a stress test than a countdown to war. The object of the test is on one end the social psychology of Taiwan and the confidence of Japan and the Philippines in the commitment of the United States; on the other end is the speed of military response - how quickly the Pentagon can fill the vacancy left by the aircraft carrier with submarines, land-based fighter jets and amphibious strike groups.
"Intention" is more important than changes in aircraft carriers
Chen Youhua, associate professor of China studies at Akita International University, pointed out to BBC Chinese that what Taiwan and its allies should really pay attention to is the change in the United States' "intention" to deter China, rather than the actual presence of the aircraft carrier.
He explained that after Trump visited Beijing in May this year and reached a so-called "constructive strategic and stable relationship" with Xi Jinping, according to Taiwan's official data, the frequency of the People's Liberation Army's "grey zone" operations in the Taiwan Strait peaked in the same month. Subsequently, China's actions in the South China Sea also showed the same upward trend.
"Therefore, rather than whether U.S. aircraft carriers are actually deployed in East Asia, Beijing's judgment on 'whether the United States intends to undermine Sino-U.S. relations' may be the real main factor driving the PLA's gray zone operations - this is especially worth observing when Xi Jinping is about to visit the United States."
In addition, Chen Youhua reminded BBC Chinese that strictly speaking, it cannot be said that there are no aircraft carriers in East Asia now. Data shows that the Lincoln left Thailand on September 6 and stated that it will continue to perform tasks within the scope of responsibility of the Seventh Fleet.
