Taiwan Independence Alliance poll: 46% of the people prefer independence, 37.7% maintain the status quo, and more than 60% are willing to defend their homeland and country
The 2026 Taiwan-U.S. Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and National Identity Poll showed that 46% of the public favored independence, and 45.7% believed that the government should actively promote the establishment of diplomatic relations with the United States.
Quick Look
- The Taiwan Independent Nation Alliance released a "National Identity Poll", which showed that 46.0% of the people favored independence, only 10.7% favored reunification, and 37.7% hoped to maintain the status quo forever.
- When war comes, 66.4% of the people are willing to defend their homeland and country.
- Only 16.0% have a favorable opinion of China, while 49.1% have a disfavorable opinion.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Taiwan Independence Alliance and the Taiwan Security Association commissioned the Shanshui Public Opinion Research Company to produce the "2026 Taiwan-US Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and National Identity Poll". The survey targets people over the age of 15. The survey was conducted from October 31 to November 3 this year. The sampling method included mobile phones and households. The number of valid samples was 1,077. At a 95% confidence level, the sampling error was approximately 2.99 percentage points. Region, gender, age group, and academic qualifications were weighted according to the demographic data of the Ministry of Interior.
The Taiwan Independent Nation Alliance released its "National Identity Poll" today (11th). Regarding the tendency of unification and independence, the poll results show that 46.0% of the people prefer independence, only 10.7% prefer reunification, 37.7% hope to maintain the status quo forever, and 5.7% have no clear opinion. However, when the war came, as many as 66.4% of the people expressed their willingness to defend their country, only 16.2% expressed their unwillingness, and 17.4% thought it was normal and had no objection.
The Taiwan Independence Alliance and the Taiwan Security Association produced the "2026 Taiwan-U.S. Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and National Identity Poll." The question asked about the public's favorable opinion of China. Only 6.7% had a very favorable opinion, 9.3% had a moderately favorable opinion, 34.9% thought it was average, 18.3% had a very unfavorable opinion, and 30.8% had a very unfavorable opinion. Regarding identity identity, 30.6% of the people consider themselves Taiwanese; 34.9% consider themselves Taiwanese and also from the Republic of China; 25% consider themselves from the Republic of China; only 6.8% consider themselves Chinese, and 2.7% have no opinion.
At the same time, the question surveyed everyone's preference for unification and independence. According to the poll results, 46.0% of the people preferred independence, only 10.7% preferred reunification, and 37.7% hoped to maintain the status quo forever. Among them, 4.6% hope for independence as soon as possible; 41.4% agree to maintain the status quo but move toward independence; 9.1% agree to maintain the status quo but move toward reunification; 1.6% hope for reunification as soon as possible, and 5.7% have no clear opinion.
In addition, if you ask the public whether they think the government should actively promote the establishment of diplomatic relations with the United States? According to the results of the poll, as many as 45.7% of the people think it should be done and 20.0% think it should not be done. Among them, 26.4% of the people think it is very appropriate, 19.3% think it is moderately appropriate, 34.3% think it is average, 10.0% think it is not very appropriate, and 10.1% think it is very inappropriate.
Do you support establishing diplomatic relations with the United States in the name of "Taiwan"? The poll results show that 33.7% of the people strongly agree, 18.0% moderately agree, 24.1% think it is average, 10.4% do not agree, and 13.8% strongly disagree. As for participating in international organizations in the name of "Taiwan", as many as 47.6% of the people strongly agree, 17.8% moderately agree, 18.4% think it is average, only 5.8% do not agree, and 10.5% strongly disagree.
The poll also asked whether they agreed to establish a military alliance with the United States. The results pointed out that 38.7% of people strongly agreed, 20.1% moderately agreed, 23.5% felt it was average, 7.2% disagreed somewhat, and 10.5% strongly disagreed. In addition, if it is assumed that Taiwan is attacked by a military, the poll shows that as many as 48.7% of the people are willing to take risks to "defend the country", 17.8% are moderately willing, 17.4% are average, only 5.8% are not willing, and 10.4% are very unwilling.
The poll was commissioned by the Taiwan Security Association and produced by Shanshui Public Opinion Research Company. The survey targets people over the age of 15. The poll was conducted from October 31 to November 3 this year. The sampling method included mobile phones and households. The number of valid samples is 1,077. At the 95% confidence level, the sampling error is about 2.99 percentage points; the weighting method is based on the demographic data of the Ministry of Interior, weighting region, gender, age group, and educational background to conform to the parent structure.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Discussions within Taiwan about promoting the establishment of diplomatic relations with the United States will continue to ferment
Likely · Within weeks
The issue of Taiwan-US military alliance will become the focus of future political debates
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Detailed question wording and order of options for the poll
- Differences in unification and independence tendencies among different age groups and regions
- Specific political reactions following the announcement of poll results







