North Korea hopes sanctions will be neutralized, New Bridge opens, warning of unipolar dependence on China
Quick Look
- North Korea will open a new bridge, the New Yalu River Bridge, on its border with China, aiming to strengthen economic cooperation and substantially ease sanctions.
- On the other hand, it also emphasizes its relationship with Russia and shows an attitude of avoiding dependence on China.
- Although China-North Korea trade has recovered to pre-coronavirus levels, the trade deficit continues due to UN sanctions.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
North Korea is prohibited from exporting coal and iron ore due to UN sanctions, and has been running a trade deficit. Last year, China-North Korea trade recovered to pre-coronavirus levels at $2.735 billion, but constraints remain. North Korea is pursuing a 20x10 policy for regional development, which requires the import of construction materials and medical equipment.
On the 16th, North Korean media announced the opening of a new bridge connecting North Korea with China, the New Yalu River Bridge. North Korean Prime Minister Park Tae-sung sent a video message at the opening ceremony on the 15th, expressing his intention to strengthen economic cooperation. North Korea appears to be hoping to use the opening of the line as an opportunity to neutralize sanctions. On the other hand, he also emphasized a balance with Russia and showed an attitude of avoiding unipolar dependence on China.
The new bridge between China and North Korea will open soon, and information will be released in October to commemorate diplomatic relations.
According to the Korean Central News Agency and other sources, Park emphasized, ``The new Amnok River Bridge will inject new energy into mutually beneficial economic cooperation.'' At the opening ceremony, it was said that the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea and the entry of the Chinese military into the Korean War in October were also behind the decision to open Shinbashi at this time.
Last year, trade between China and North Korea amounted to $2.735 billion (approximately 430 billion yen), returning to roughly the same level as before the coronavirus outbreak. However, due to United Nations Security Council sanctions that prohibit North Korea from exporting coal, iron ore, etc., North Korea has a large trade deficit.
Additionally, North Korea is promoting the ``20x10 Regional Development Policy,'' which involves building factories, hospitals, etc. in various regions, and construction materials and medical equipment are essential. It seems that they are hoping that sanctions will be gradually eased as a result of the increase in logistics due to the opening of Shinbashi.
On the other hand, relations between China and North Korea have experienced ups and downs, and in 2013, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un executed his uncle-in-law, Jang Seong-taek, who was close to China and served as his guardian. Although China-North Korea relations have rapidly recovered since last year, experts say that ``North Korea doesn't really trust China and won't listen to China.''
In September, North Korea opened a road bridge over the Tumen River on its border with Russia. At that ceremony, as at the opening ceremony of the New Yalu River Bridge, the prime ministers of both Korea and Russia delivered congratulatory addresses online. Both stories were reported on the second page of the Labor Party's official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun. We are making sure that we do not take sides.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
North Korea gradually increases cargo transportation through the New Yalu River Bridge in an attempt to substantially ease sanctions.
Likely · Within months
China-North Korea relations will temporarily improve due to deepening economic cooperation, but the fundamental lack of trust will not be resolved.
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- What is the actual cargo transportation capacity of the New Yalu River Bridge?
- What are the specific mechanisms for sanctions relief?
- What impact will the opening of the Tumen River Road Bridge with Russia have on North Korea's logistics?
