
AI-generated summary
After the US military carried out air strikes on Iran, Iran's radar and naval capabilities were severely damaged, making it impossible to use traditional methods to monitor shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guards therefore switched to using unarmed observers on small boats to identify merchant ships and warships.
Many ships were seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz near Bandar Abbas, Iran. Iran switched to using unarmed observers on small boats to identify merchant ships and US warships, bringing renewed attention to shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters)
After U.S. air strikes severely damaged Iran's radar capabilities and naval capabilities, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sent unarmed personnel on small boats to identify merchant ships and U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz and serve as maritime observation posts. Reuters reported on the 14th that in the past 48 hours, at least five incidents involving oil tankers and other commercial ships occurred around the strait, including drone attacks.
An unnamed U.S. military official told Reuters that after the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' radar capabilities were severely damaged, they began to use observers on small boats to identify potential targets and then pass the information to the rear. Such vessels include the single-masted wooden ship (dhow) common in the Persian Gulf, allowing Iran to monitor ships in the waterway without risking the use of its remaining high-speed patrol boats.
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The official revealed that last week the U.S. military discovered observers on an Iranian wooden boat reporting targets to the Revolutionary Guards. U.S. troops then approached the ship, asked the crew to abandon the ship, and then destroyed the wooden ship. Officials said there were no casualties in the incident. Reuters pointed out that this was a firefight that had not been made public before.
However, Iran still failed to prevent the increase in oil exports. The US military official said that Iran is unwilling to risk using its remaining high-speed patrol boats, and that previous US air strikes have severely damaged its navy, making it difficult for Iran to prevent more oil from being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
Maritime security data shows that the threats faced by commercial ships are still increasing. According to Reuters, based on information from maritime security industry players and reports from the UK Maritime Trade Action Office (UKMTO), in the past 48 hours, there have been at least five incidents involving oil tankers and other merchant ships around the Strait of Hormuz, including drone attacks; this frequency is approximately the same as from October 3 to 5. Relevant information also shows that the scope of recent attacks and harassment on ships may have extended from the strait to the Gulf of Oman, as well as the offshore waters of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Attacks on merchant ships escalate, Iran threatens to block strait
Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that the decision to adjust the attack method had been made by Iran's top decision-makers in order to prevent the United States and its allies from driving down global oil prices. One of the officials described it as a "chess game" and warned that ships could be attacked even outside the Strait of Hormuz. The two also said that Iran is moving towards restricting the passage of illegal ships, with one claiming that the strait may soon face a "complete blockade".
The Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war. The U.S.-Iran confrontation has severely restricted shipping across the Strait and increased supply risks faced by global energy markets. The Pentagon and Iran's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
There will be more harassment or attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz
Likely · Within weeks
Global oil prices set to rise on tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Possible · Within weeks

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