According to news from Japan on the 7th, sources said that the Japanese government will revise the "Three Security Documents" within the year and consider adding content related to "exploring the introduction of nuclear-powered submarines by the Self-Defense Forces." Related trends have triggered opposition in Japan. What are the political "calculations" behind this move?
Meng Mingming, assistant researcher at the Institute of Japan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: The Japanese government attempted to include research into the introduction of nuclear submarines in the revision process of the "Three Security Documents". I think this exposed the following political calculations.
Gradually break through the "Three Non-nuclear Principles" in a "sausage-cutting" manner
Meng Mingming, assistant researcher at the Institute of Japan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: First, it attempts to use a "salami-slicing" approach to break through the "three non-nuclear principles". The right-wing forces headed by Takaichi have been advocating the so-called "reflection on the three non-nuclear principles". Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi have also stated many times before that Japan should discuss possessing nuclear submarines. However, as Japan was a defeated country in World War II, the domestic people have long been influenced by the pacifist constitution and anti-nuclear consciousness. If the Gao City government openly attempts to introduce nuclear submarines, it will inevitably trigger strong criticism and countermeasures at home and abroad. Therefore, Takaichi uses low-sensitivity words such as "research" and "discussion" to test the bottom line of the outside world and reduce Japan's domestic and foreign vigilance and aversion to nuclear-related military issues. In the long run, he attempts to legalize and normalize the untouchable nuclear taboo and reserve a springboard for subsequent policy discussions.
Break the principle of “exclusive defense” and seek lasting combat capability
Meng Mingming, assistant researcher at the Institute of Japan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Second, it attempts to completely break through Japan's current "defense-only" boundaries and seek offensive and long-lasting confrontation capabilities in the deep sea. Unlike conventional submarines, which are based on offshore positioning, nuclear submarines have long-term underwater endurance and the ability to covertly deliver long-range strike weapons. They are extremely threatening offensive weapons and can essentially build an ocean-going military system capable of combat and long-lasting warfare.
Use the connivance of the United States and the West to break the nuclear taboo and accelerate militarization
Meng Mingming, Assistant Researcher at the Institute of Japan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Third, the Japanese government’s nuclear test is also a risky move taking advantage of the strategic adjustment of the United States to get rid of the post-war system. As the United States fails to maintain its hegemonic power, it has intentionally supported Japan's "strategic independence" in recent years to share the pressure. Among them, maintaining and extending the United States' deterrent power in East Asia through Japan's nuclear possession is also an option. Japan also hopes to use the connivance of the United States and the West to break the nuclear taboo, accelerate its transition away from the post-war system, and realize its ambition to become a military power.
Japan's move will worsen the environment at home and abroad and endanger world peace.
Meng Mingming, assistant researcher at the Institute of Japan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: On the one hand, as the only country that has been bombed by atomic bombs, once Japan openly starts the process of nuclear submarines, it will only completely tear off the fig leaf of a "peaceful country" it has long advertised, sharply deepen the strategic doubts of neighboring countries, push the security situation in East Asia into an even more uncontrollable dilemma, and cause a serious impact on the international nuclear non-proliferation system, threatening the stability of the international situation. On the other hand, military expansion and nuclear-related play with fire are destined to go astray. The development of nuclear submarines will not only consume Japan's astronomical financial resources and increase its increasingly heavy domestic economic and people's livelihood burdens, but also significantly increase the risk of miscalculation and misfire due to its high risk.
