Natural gas prices fell in Europe after US President Donald Trump said he had no immediate plans to strike Iran, which eased fears of renewed escalation in the war that has shaken global energy markets.
After record futures contracts exceeded 100 euros per megawatt-hour last week, they fell for the third day in a row, according to Bloomberg News Agency.
Trump told the Financial Times that he was satisfied with the current state of confrontation with Iran, while indicating that he was still prepared to use force if necessary.
Florence Schmidt, chief energy strategist at Rabobank, said: “There is a significant decline in the escalatory rhetoric, which means that European gas prices exceeding 100 euros will not be sustainable unless there is a further reduction in supplies.” But the fundamental factors of the market have not changed yet.”
The markets have witnessed sharp fluctuations in recent days, due to changing expectations regarding the diplomatic track and the threat of renewed US strikes on Iran following the midterm elections.
The financial results of “Saudi Aramco” and the general budget performance report for the third quarter, which were issued on the same day, showed a discrepancy between the growth of the company’s profits and the decline in government oil revenues recorded in the budget. While Aramco's net income increased during the first nine months of the year by 34.2 percent to 380.6 billion riyals ($101.5 billion), government oil revenues declined during the same period by 1.3 percent, and decreased by about 23 percent during the third quarter alone.
Comparison between the two indicators does not necessarily reflect a direct relationship between the company’s profits and the revenues entering the state treasury. The basis for recording profits differs from the mechanisms for calculating government revenues and the timing of their collection, in addition to the multiple channels of the financial relationship between the two parties, including taxes, royalties, distributions, and clearing settlements.
Aramco recorded a net income of 380.6 billion riyals ($101.5 billion) during the first nine months of 2026, compared to 283.6 billion riyals ($75.6 billion) in the same period last year, an increase of 34.2 percent. Adjusted net income reached 368.9 billion riyals ($98.4 billion), compared to 302.3 billion riyals ($80.6 billion) a year ago.
But the rise in profits was not accompanied by a similar growth in cash generated from the company’s business, according to what its report showed. Cash flows from operating activities amounted to 355.8 billion riyals ($94.9 billion), compared to 357.6 billion riyals ($95.4 billion) during the same period of the previous year, remaining almost stable.
Aramco explains this by changes in working capital, which is related to the funds used to conduct daily operations, such as sales that have not yet been paid, inventory, and amounts owed to or from the company. These changes limited the impact of higher profits on operating cash flows.
In contrast, free cash flows rose to 221.6 billion riyals ($59.1 billion), compared to 217.3 billion riyals ($57.9 billion) a year ago. This indicator measures the company's remaining cash after deducting capital spending from operating cash flows, and it benefited from a decline in capital expenditures to 134.2 billion riyals ($35.8 billion), compared to 140.3 billion riyals ($37.4 billion) in the comparative period.
On the other side of the picture, the growth in Aramco’s profits was not reflected in government oil revenues at the same pace. Ministry of Finance data showed a decline in these revenues during the third quarter by 23 percent on an annual basis, to 116.5 billion riyals ($31.1 billion), compared to 150.8 billion riyals ($40.2 billion) in the same period last year.
Over the first nine months of the year, oil revenues amounted to 446.3 billion riyals ($119 billion), compared to 452.4 billion riyals ($120.6 billion) in the corresponding period of 2025, with a limited decrease of about 1.3 percent.
On the other hand, non-oil revenues increased during the nine months by 8 percent to 412.5 billion riyals ($110 billion), which contributed to an increase in total budget revenues by 3 percent to 858.9 billion riyals ($229 billion). In the third quarter alone, non-oil revenues increased by 20 percent to 142.6 billion riyals ($38 billion).
Thus, the growth of non-oil revenues helped limit the impact of the decline in oil revenues on total budget income. Expenses during the third quarter amounted to 343.4 billion riyals ($91.6 billion), compared to revenues of 259.1 billion riyals ($69.1 billion), so the quarter recorded a deficit of about 84.3 billion riyals ($22.5 billion).
Part of the difference between Aramco’s results and budget revenues is due to the different nature of the numbers that each reflects. The company's profits are recorded according to its accounting results, while the budget data reflects the government revenues collected during the period. The state’s benefit from Aramco’s activity passes through multiple channels, including taxes, royalties, and distributions, and the due dates for these amounts and their payment vary.
Profits recorded in accounting do not necessarily turn into cash flows in the same period. Liquidity is affected by the dates for collecting receivables, inventory changes, and operational payments. The impact of this also appears in the financial transactions between Aramco and the government, which are not limited to direct cash payments, but rather include the settlement of some mutual obligations through clearing. For example, the income tax paid by the company in cash decreased to 2.8 billion riyals (about 747 million dollars) in the third quarter, compared to about 51 billion riyals (about 13.6 billion dollars) in the second quarter, in light of the settlement of its dues to the government by deducting them from tax obligations. This mechanism means deducting the dues of one party from the amounts owed to the other party, instead of transferring the full value in cash, which affects the size of the cash payments and the timing of their transfer between the two parties.
Therefore, it is not required that government oil revenues move in the same direction as Aramco’s results, as each of them is affected by different factors and calculation mechanisms. While the company's profits reflect its financial performance during the period, the government revenues recorded in the budget are linked to the taxes, royalties and distributions the state is entitled to, and the dates for their collection and settlement. Therefore, the company's profits may grow in a period during which government oil revenues decline.
In conclusion, the results reflect Aramco’s continued achievement of strong profits and maintaining high levels of cash flows, which supports its ability to continue investing and distributing profits to its shareholders, especially the state. The growth of non-oil revenues also highlights the importance of diversifying sources of budget income in reducing the impact of fluctuations in oil revenues, thus enhancing the multiple streams of public finance support and supporting the path of economic transformation in the Kingdom.
