Neither of Israel's two major camps has won a majority of seats, and the impact of different cabinet formation results is huge

On the 28th local time, Israel’s Central Election Commission announced the preliminary vote counting results of the parliamentary election. Currently, the right-wing camp led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ahead of the opposition camp led by former Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eisenkot, but neither party has reached a parliamentary majority.

How will the different cabinet formation results in the Israeli Knesset elections affect Israel’s policy towards Iran? What impact will it have on U.S.-Iran negotiations and the prospect that the U.S. may take military action against Iran?

Li Zixin, Assistant Researcher at the China Institute of International Studies: First of all, we have to look at several scenarios for forming a cabinet. Different scenarios have different impacts on Israel’s policy towards Iran.

If Netanyahu succeeds in forming a cabinet, his policy will continue. He will continue to use the so-called "historic opportunity to attack Iran" as one of the important sources of legitimacy in power to push the United States to use force.

If Essenkot succeeds in forming a government, his goal may be adjusted from "overthrowing the Iranian regime" to "weakening Iran's relevant capabilities." He advocates shipping out enriched uranium and requiring Iran to accept inspections. However, the method of exerting pressure on Iran will not completely change, and it still supports the use of bombing to weaken Iran's military power.

If the formation of the government reaches a stalemate, then the most unstable situation will arise if Netanyahu continues to serve as caretaker prime minister. By then, the prime minister will have complete decision-making power, but without the checks and balances of opposition forces, the possibility of adopting aggressive measures will be greater.

Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies: Different cabinet formation results have different impacts on the US-Iran negotiations.

If Netanyahu is in office, any U.S.-Iran agreement will be seen as a threat to Israel's security.

If Eisenkot forms a government, it may leave room for negotiations because he advocates restraining Iran through inspections.

If Israel enters a caretaker government period, the United States will not be sure whether the agreement can be accepted by the next Israeli government, which will reduce the willingness of all parties to promote the de-escalation of the situation.

Li Zixin, Assistant Researcher at the China Institute of International Studies: So overall, no matter who forms the government, Israel will probably not accept an agreement that allows Iran to retain its nuclear capabilities. The difference is that Netanyahu will actively disrupt, while Eisenkot will tolerate but not give up the military option.