There are calls for armistice negotiations in Ukrainian politics: a change in public opinion or a political test?

(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) Three prominent Ukrainian politicians have called for negotiations with Russia to end the war. For example, Oleksij Hontscharenko, a member of parliament from the "European Solidarity Party", said on social media: "The current reality is this: we are losing this war. We are losing countless lives. We lack funds. Not only can we not fund the war, we cannot even keep the country running."

Honcharenko suggested negotiating with Moscow that Ukraine could remain neutral, renounce NATO membership, lift sanctions, the status of the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, and the Donbass issue: "In my opinion, it is absurd to let an entire country die in order to join NATO."

Danylo Hetmanzew is a member of the ruling party "Servant of the People" and chairman of the Parliament's Finance Committee. He wrote on social media on the same day that "initiating negotiations and peace should be our highest priority" and that the final peace conditions must be confirmed through a referendum. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terechow criticized a political logic that viewed war as no alternative. But he also stressed that peace must be based on defense capabilities and specific guarantees from partners.

What do the Ukrainian president and opposition say?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj quickly issued a warning. He reminded these elected members to consider public opinion and that they are responsible for the unity within the country and must not incite panic. "No matter how difficult it is, we cannot give in to Putin and Russia because that will destroy Ukraine," the Ukrainian president said.

The opposition parliamentary group "European Solidarity" immediately distanced itself from Hontscharenko. The caucus said his "positions on the end of the war and the future security architecture of Ukraine are inconsistent with the party's positions and its ideological principles". For Ukraine, non-negotiables include the country's right to a strong military, Ukrainian as an official language, an independent Ukrainian Orthodox homeland church, and membership in the European Union and NATO.

Professor Oleksij Haran, a political scientist at Kyiv's Mohyla Academy, believes that the timing of the call for peace is not accidental. The political scientist explained in an interview with Deutsche Welle: "The cold winter is coming, people who have experienced years of war are exhausted, and everyone is talking about negotiations - this is the case for Ukrainian representatives, and so is US President Trump." Some politicians are already eager to reap "results" in future elections. Furthermore, Harlan did not rule out the possibility that these calls could be used to test society's response.

Ihor Tschalenko, a political scientist at the Ukrainian "Analysis and Strategy Center", viewed the statements of Ukrainian politicians more from the perspective of the possibility of holding talks in Abu Dhabi. Sectoral ceasefires and the launch of Trump's peace plan are said to be discussed at a trilateral meeting there. Charenko said some of these politicians have good connections with the US presidential team. Trump hopes to achieve quick results before the congressional midterm elections on November 3. Charenko added, “All this is mainly to organize such a meeting in order to bring Russia into the negotiations.” At the same time, the extent to which the public is willing to accept compromise can also be seen through the statements of these politicians.

How do Ukrainians view the negotiations?

According to a mid-September survey by the Kiev Institute of International Sociology (KIIS), 75% of Ukrainians favor negotiating with Russia to end the war, while 21% oppose it. The institute stressed that the issue only concerns the possibility of negotiations, not concessions. 69% would support an immediate ceasefire on the front lines of the current war, provided Ukraine does not recognize occupied areas as belonging to Russia, continues to build up its military and seeks to get closer to the EU and NATO. 62% of people are willing to endure the pain of war as long as necessary, and in Kiev this proportion even reaches 72%. 79% of people believe that Ukraine will win, and the proportion of people who believe that Ukraine will win has declined, from 60% in the survey at the end of July to 47%.

Anton Hruschezkyj, a scholar at the Kiev Institute of International Sociology (KIIS), said: "The remarks of individual politicians do not reflect the opinions of the majority of Ukrainians." However, a part of the population is ready to accept surrender. About a year ago, about 20% of respondents supported Russia's peace plan to withdraw Ukrainian troops from Donbas and demilitarize it. "But this is a minority. The majority are pragmatic and, while willing to accept difficult compromises, are unwilling to accept surrender," the sociologist emphasized.

Is Russia really ready to negotiate?

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently dismissed proposals for a mutual cessation of attacks on energy facilities and civilian ships as "pointless." Political scientist Charenko emphasized: "Russia's lack of willingness to negotiate is a fundamental fact." He believes that dividing the public into "war faction" and "peace faction" is an artificial statement. "There does not exist a larger group that supports permanent war. Ukraine's position will be limited to territorial integrity and security guarantees. This is already a concession, and no greater concession is possible."

Professor Haran of Kyiv's Mohyla Academy also emphasized that Ukraine's current position is a forced compromise. "Now we are talking about an armistice. This is already a huge concession," he said. Most Ukrainians, while willing to accept this, cannot find majority support for withdrawing troops from Donbas or recognizing that the occupied areas belong to Russia. Reciprocal comments can only cause harm. Haaland warned: "The problem is not negotiation and compromise, but Putin wants to plunge us into a difficult winter in order to bring us to our knees. What Ukrainian politicians are saying now about truce negotiations is only encouraging Putin to do this."