“After the 5th plenary session of the China Plenum, denuclearization becomes more distant… Cooperation must be expanded through 1.5 track dialogue.”

Korea Institute for National Unification, impact analysis on the Korean Peninsula… “Increased high-level exchanges between North Korea and China make it possible for North Korea to ‘hold on’”

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Boram Yoon = A national research institute predicted that as Xi Jinping's regime is strengthened after the plenary session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (the 5th plenary session of the 20th Central Committee), discussions on denuclearization are likely to become further distant.

Lee Jae-young, a researcher at the International Strategy Research Center of the Korea Institute for National Unification, analyzed in a report titled 'China's 20th Fifth Plenary Session and the Dilemma of Power Concentration: China's Foreign Strategy and Implications for the Korean Peninsula' on the 11th, saying, "China will fix relations with the United States through normal agreements, stabilize the border with North Korea through solidarity with the ruling party, and avoid military adventures."

Researcher Lee said, “After the Fifth Plenary Session, China’s foreign policy becomes more dependent on Xi Jinping’s personal judgment,” and added, “This works in two directions on the Korean Peninsula.”

First, in terms of continuity, it is predicted that China's 'system stability priority' toward North Korea and 'managed competition' toward the United States will likely be maintained beyond next year.

In addition, in terms of rigidity, it is expected that China's response may be delayed as the discretion of lower-level organizations decreases when rapid adjustment is required, such as North Korea's high-intensity provocations or contingencies in the West Sea.

It was also analyzed that the channel and agenda of North Korea-China exchanges have changed since the 5th plenary session.

He said that high-level exchanges between North Korea and China have quickly become more dense around party channels, and that "the party-to-party channels have actually become higher-ranked at the level of Politburo members." After the 5th plenary session, Wang Yi, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo and director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, directly reported the results of the meeting to Kim Song-nam, international secretary of the North Korean Workers' Party, who was visiting China.

At the same time, he expressed concern that this flow of exchanges between North Korea and China "endures the North Korean system rather than changing it and pushes denuclearization further off the agenda," and added, "Instead of lowering the possibility of an intended conflict on the Korean Peninsula, the risk of the separation between North and South Korea becoming solidified increases."

In addition, he analyzed, “As transactions with the United States become more uncertain (depending on the results of the midterm elections), the party channel with China becomes a safer source of support for North Korea.” He added, “In the end, denuclearization becomes a lower priority on any axis of the U.S.-China, North America, or North Korea-China.”

Researcher Lee suggested, "Korea must concretely cooperate (with China) on agendas with overlapping interests, such as border stability, easing military tensions, and restoring inter-Korean communication," and added, "We must directly address the Korean Peninsula agenda in summit and high-level dialogue and expand access to information through economic channels and 1.5 track dialogue with border local governments such as Liaoning and Jilin."