Taiwan stocks stand firm at 49,000 points, and investment advisors are optimistic that the market will challenge 51,000 points in the fourth quarter (photo by reporter Wang Menglun)
[Reporter Wang Menglun/Taipei Report] The Taiwan stock market approached 50,000 points last week (10/5-10/8), rising 837.70 points for the week, an increase of 1.73%, standing firm at 49,000 points, and closing at 49,313.44 points. Looking ahead to the market outlook for the Taiwanese stock market this week, investment advisory institutions said that as both U.S. stocks and Taiwanese stocks are optimistic about profits, and interest rate issues will not interfere for the time being, the market is steadily moving towards the "established bullish path" in the fourth quarter. The round-number barrier is not the end point, and the index range is 48,000 points to 51,000 points.
The Taiwan stock market closed at 49,313.44 points, continuing to challenge the record high in history. SinoPac Investment Consulting said that it was timid in the face of the integer level. It was dragged down by the retracement of US stocks on Thursday, and its offensive was thwarted. The final performance was slightly worse, falling 0.05%, closing at 426.71 points.
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First of all, analysts said that in the face of the integer level, Taiwan stocks were still "step by step" and did not attack with heavy volume, making the firepower incoherent. As for U.S. stocks, although high government bond yields continue to disturb the market, the chances of another interest rate hike by the FOMC in October have declined. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have reached new highs, showing the market's confidence in the prospects.
In terms of performance of industrial stocks, TSMC stood firm at 2,500 yuan. As the 10/15 TSMC legal ruling is imminent, the market is optimistic about the profit performance and the outlook. Investors are stuck, contributing nearly 400 points to the market.
In addition, in terms of capital trends, foreign capital sales in the centralized market exceeded 23.657 billion yuan last week, investment credit sales exceeded 12.424 billion yuan, self-operated hedging sales exceeded 13.858 billion yuan, and the three major legal persons collectively sold more than 55.708 billion yuan. Financing increased by 4.896 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 640.001 billion yuan; securities lending decreased by 16,882, and the balance of securities lending was 215,104. Investment trusts oversold on rallies, and foreign investors and retail investors increased their bets.
In this regard, SinoPac Investment Consulting put forward four key points of observation. First, "The profit outlook for the third quarter is optimistic, and the bullish pattern continues": September revenue, research institution forecasts, and US stock market surveys all show that the market, which is favored by the AI investment boom, is optimistic about profits in the third quarter. Therefore, stock prices generally rise after entering the fourth quarter, so investors should follow the trend.
Second, "October FOMC has low chance of raising interest rates, investors are relieved": From the changes in early October, we can see that the U.S. market is worried about high interest rates, but the FED is very cautious about raising interest rates and has also shown tolerance for inflation. When the non-farm employment data was poor, the chance of October FOMC raising interest rates has been greatly reduced.
Third, "low volume trading, market wait-and-see, investors should be active": Taiwan stock trading volume rebounded slightly last week, but the market appeared very restrained. In particular, profit-taking was prone to occur after opening high in early trading. Yongfeng Investment Consulting pointed out that although this situation of being able to restrain the volume is not good for short-term advancement, it is beneficial for the market to advance step by step.
Fourth, "The market continues to move forward, and the integer level is not the end": Based on the above, with the profits of US and Taiwan stocks promising, and the interest rate issue not interfering for the time being, the market is steadily moving towards the established bullish path in the fourth quarter. Therefore, investment advisory institutions recommend that investors actively seize the opportunity. The index range is 48,000 points to 51,000 points, "buy on dips".
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