Huang Shanshan voted more than 50% in support of Shen Boyang! Scholars analyze the key to reorganization of Taipei polling triangle

TVBS released a Taipei mayor poll yesterday, with Chiang Wanan at 49% and Shen Boyang at 41%, a gap of 8 percentage points. In late May, the gap between the two was 28 percentage points, and within five months the gap had shrunk by 20 percentage points. Du Shengcong, a communication scholar at Ming Chuan University, analyzed the triangular reorganization of the Taipei mayoral race based on polling data. He believes that the votes cast by Huang Shanshan in 2022 have recently flowed significantly to Shen Boyang, showing that the Taipei mayoral race has changed from voters' party identification. Candidate priorities and generational differences will affect the results of this local election.

Du Shengcong analyzed that among the respondents who were willing to vote this time and said they would vote for Huang Shanshan in 2022, 53% supported Shen Boyang and 39% supported Jiang Wanan. In the May survey, 61% of the same respondents supported Jiang Wanan and 32% supported Shen Boyang. Between the two times, the relative position was completely reversed. In 2022, Huang Shanshan won 342,141 votes, with a vote rate of 25.14%. The People's Party fully supported her back then, but these 340,000 votes could hardly be counted as the total base of the Bai camp.

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In the latest poll, 89% of self-identified People's Party supporters support Jiang Wanan, while only 7% support Shen Boyang. To Shengcong analyzed that if we look at the 53% of Huang Shanshan voters who support Shen together, we can interpret that the overlap between those who identify themselves as the People's Party and those who voted for Huang Shanshan four years ago is probably less than many people imagine.

He pointed out that there are five possibilities for vote switching, including the original desire to break away from the blue-green mentality to the hope that the election will be truly competitive. Or Huang Shanshan’s personal cross-party appeal cannot be fully transferred with the blue-white cooperation. Secondly, it may be related to Shen Boyang's image. Or the evaluation of the incumbent Jiang Wanan has become loose. The final one might be strategic voting.

Du Shengcong also pointed out that what is worth observing is that the effect of Zhao Shaokang's interview has not been taken into account. Shen Boyang went to "Shaokang War Room" on the evening of October 7 to receive an exclusive interview with Zhao Shaokang. However, the interview period on the last day of the poll happened to overlap with the broadcast time of the program, so the numbers barely reflected this interview.

Du Shengcong analyzed that Taipei voters use at least three sets of logics to make choices at the same time: party identification, candidate evaluation, and judgment on municipal and public issues. It is worth observing whether deeper changes are taking place in the structure of Taipei's voters.