Observation results of rocket debris impacting the moon released, scientists look for evidence of collision

Finer observations at the Lowell Discovery Telescope in Arizona and the Very Large Telescope in Chile may reveal evidence of the collision, such as specific wavelengths of light emitted or absorbed by the debris plume, but the data will need to be analyzed.

"We were able to make observations despite intermittent thick clouds, but it required some quick processing of the data to determine whether we were observing anything," said Patrick Leal, an astronomer at Boston University who participated in the Lowell Discovery Telescope observations. "So the answer is, none have been found yet."

The most promising observations so far come from Chile.

Carl Schmidt, another Boston University scientist, used the Very Large Telescope to measure sodium and lithium in plumes that lasted five to 10 minutes after the impact and were tens of kilometers in size.

Schmidt said he was "100 percent certain" the measurements came from the impact.

However, it appears that no one was able to directly see or photograph the collision.

"So far, all I've heard from people working in imaging are negative results," Leal said.

It's not surprising that the rocket wreckage ended up in such an underwhelming way.

Computer simulations calculated the effect of the upper stage hitting the moon vertically - the type of impact that would create the most debris, but which would more likely fall at an angle. (Vertical impact is the only case simple enough to calculate.)

But even in the case of a vertical impact, the predicted flashes and plumes are at the edge of what might be seen, and the dynamics depend on other unknown factors, such as whether it hit hard bedrock or loose lunar soil.

The South Korean spacecraft Wolstong flew past the expected crash site about eight hours after the impact. Even if it manages to capture an image of an impact crater, it may take days or weeks to identify it. That's because locating the newly destroyed lunar landscape is as difficult as finding a needle in a haystack. Confirmation of the crater required comparison with an earlier photo showing the original surface at the location before the impact.

Six days later, NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also fly over the site to provide more photos to assist in the search.

Is it possible that the prediction was wrong? Is it possible that the abandoned upper stage of Falcon 9 did not hit the moon?

Scientists are convinced a collision has occurred. Like everything flying in the solar system, the remains of this rocket behave according to Newton's laws of motion, with slight deviations only caused by additional forces such as the solar wind.

The uncertainty about where the impact occurred is only a few kilometers.