Just two weeks before the midterm congressional elections, the crisis of the Republican Party has shifted to the inner circle of President Donald Trump, who has begun to hold his senior aides and political advisors responsible for the party's declining chances of retaining its majority, amid disagreements over spending hundreds of millions of dollars, redrawing electoral districts, and selecting candidates.
While Trump has intensified his electoral movements, trying to mobilize his supporters to confront the rise of the Democrats, Republican candidates in crucial states are seeking to distance themselves from his policies, especially the war with Iran and tariffs, for fear that his declining popularity will turn into a burden that will topple their seats.
Reuters said that Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the performance of his old aide James Blair, who runs the political action committee MAGA Inc., wondering about the reasons for the lack of improvement in opinion polls despite spending about $200 million to support Republican candidates. The criticism extended to the White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, who until recently was far removed from internal conflicts.
One of the insiders described the scene as being like an episode in which everyone exchanged fire, while the White House rejected the accounts of the differences, describing them as baseless speculation.
Trump appeals to his base in Kentucky
In an attempt to move the battle from the disagreements of his advisors to the mobilization of voters, Trump appeared on Saturday evening in front of thousands of his supporters in the city of Highland Heights, Kentucky. He described the November 3 elections as “the most important in the history of midterm elections,” calling on Republicans to vote massively to maintain their control of Congress.
The president boasted of his vast influence during his second term, saying that he could do unbelievable things, and repeated his attack on the Democrats, warning of the repercussions of their return to legislative power, promising to invest $100 million in the pharmaceutical industry in Kentucky if the Republicans won. He also renewed his promise to give $5,000 to every American adult if the Republicans maintained the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, in an attempt to redirect voters’ attention toward the economic gains he promises.
The gathering came to support Republican candidates, led by Ed Gallerin, who received Trump's support in his confrontation with former Representative Thomas Massie, one of the most prominent conservative voices critical of the president's military interventions. Gallerin's support reflects Trump's eagerness to strengthen his influence within the party, even as some Republicans fear that loyalty to the president will become a burden in swing circles.
However, the crowds that Trump attracts do not necessarily guarantee Republican success in the congressional elections, which depend on the participation of independent voters and the ability of candidates to overcome partisan polarization. Polls show that Democrats have a chance to regain the House of Representatives, while the competition for the Senate remains closer.
Republicans are turning away from the president
The competitions in the swing states reveal a paradox facing the Republican Party. While Trump demands that his supporters deal with the elections as if he were a candidate in them, some candidates seek to prove their independence from him.
Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine stands out as an example of this dilemma. In her debates with her Democratic rival, Troy Jackson, she stressed her opposition to war with Iran, and criticized the lack of adequate planning for military operations, considering that Trump should have consulted with Congress before launching the attacks. Susan Collins also sought to confirm that she is not one of the Republicans who automatically vote for the president, citing her opposition to the appointment of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, and her differences with the administration regarding other files.
But her Democratic rival, Jackson, accused her of following a selective approach in opposing Trump, noting that she opposes him when the outcome of the vote is predetermined, while she supports his policies in crucial moments. The tension between them reached its peak during the last debate, which witnessed a sharp verbal altercation that reflected the extent of the pressures surrounding the competition for one of the seats, which may tip the balance in favor of one of the two parties in controlling the Senate.
A Washington Post poll, conducted in cooperation with the Schar School of Politics and Governance, showed Democratic candidate Jackson leading by 50 percent, compared to 46 percent for Susan Collins, a difference that falls within the margin of error, but it reveals the fragility of the position of the Republican senator who is seeking a sixth term in a state that leans toward the Democrats.
Obama enters Michigan battle
In exchange for Republican attempts to distance themselves from Trump, Democrats began summoning their most prominent political figures to enhance their chances of seizing control of the Senate, led by former President Barack Obama, who announced his support for Democratic candidate Abdul Rahman Al-Sayyed in Michigan, facing Republican Mike Rogers. Obama is scheduled to participate in an election rally in Detroit on October 24, along with Al-Sayyid and other Democratic candidates, in an attempt to unify the party base and increase the participation of black, youth and minority voters. Obama also appeared in an election ad supporting Mr.
The elections in Michigan are of exceptional importance, not only because its seat may determine the balance of power in the Senate, but because the competition reflects American divisions over the war in Gaza and Iran, relations with Israel, and the role of Arab and Muslim voters in the elections. The debate between Al-Sayyid and Rogers turned into a sharp confrontation over foreign policy, after the Republican candidate accused his rival of being lenient with extremist groups, accusations denied by Al-Sayyid, who criticized unconditional American military support for Israel and called for prioritizing spending on education and health instead of foreign wars.
Obama's intervention reflects the Democrats' awareness that winning Michigan requires rebuilding a broad electoral coalition, which includes black voters in Detroit, Arab Americans in Dearborn, and independents in the suburbs, after the Gaza war led to divisions within the party during the last presidential elections.
An Associated Press report revealed that the heated competition between Mr. and Rogers caused divisions within the Jewish and Arab circles in Michigan. While some Jewish voters are concerned about Al-Sayed’s stances toward Israel, Arab voters who supported Trump in 2024 are increasingly dissatisfied with Republican rhetoric linking the Democratic candidate to extremism because of his religious background.
Battles that could tip the balance of Congress
In addition to Michigan and Maine, eyes are on a number of states that may determine the future of the Republican majority. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is trying to retain his seat against Republican Mike Collins, in a state that Trump won in the 2024 elections, but opinion polls give Ossoff a noticeable lead.
As for Kansas, the competition that was considered settled for Republicans has turned into one of the surprises of the election season. Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces a strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, who presents himself as a centrist candidate capable of attracting conservatives and independents. Republicans were forced to allocate additional financial resources after polls showed an unexpected closeness between the candidates. The Senate Leadership Fund Committee provided $14 million to support Marshall, while Hamilton excelled in campaign fundraising.
The states of Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska stand out on the map of competitions that the two parties are monitoring, because any Democratic breakthrough there could open a new path to control the Senate, but the task remains difficult, as Democrats need to make gains in conservative states, in addition to protecting the seats they currently occupy.
In the House of Representatives, Republican concerns are focused on swing districts, especially in Texas. Redrawing electoral boundaries could backfire if the turnout of Latino voters who support Trump declines. This increases pressure on the strategy that the president personally adopted to strengthen his party's majority.
Iran and the economy weigh heavily on Republicans
The war with Iran remains one of the common factors between these battles, after its economic repercussions became part of the electoral debate. The rise in fuel prices and the cost of living gives Democrats an opportunity to link Trump's foreign policies to the daily problems of Americans, while Republicans seek to highlight American military power as a guarantee of national security. The sensitivity of this equation increases as tension continues in the Strait of Hormuz, as the White House fears that any new military escalation will lead to turmoil in the oil markets before the vote. Conversely, continued Iranian threats to shipping may undermine the administration's narrative of its success in imposing military control.
Thus, Trump finds himself facing a double dilemma. He needs to mobilize his conservative base by defending his policies, but he fears that these same policies will turn into a reason for the loss of Republican candidates in swing states. If the president holds his aides responsible for the failure of the electoral strategy, the results of November 3 will reveal the extent of the impact of his personal decisions on the future of the Republican majority, especially in light of the electoral campaign’s connection to the issues of war, the economy, and immigration.
The loss of the House of Representatives may be enough to change the nature of the last two years of Trump's term, by giving Democrats the power to open investigations and obstruct his legislative projects. The loss of the Senate would also constitute a greater blow to the White House’s ability to pass appointments and legislation, and redraw the balance of power in Washington.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that President Donald Trump's decision to freeze sanctions and customs duties imposed on Russia aims to provide a period of 60 days to evaluate the impact of these measures on the global economy.
Agence France-Presse quoted Rubio as saying: “The president wants to use this time (60 days) to analyze what the imposition of sanctions and customs duties might mean for the global economy, and even for the American economy,” noting that the economic restrictions affect a number of countries, not just Russia.
He considered that several conflicts affect global energy prices, including the American war on Iran and the Houthi militia attacks on Saudi Arabia.
He continued: “These conflicts have begun to interfere with each other, and just as they affect the prices of oil and diesel globally, they also affect economies.”
For his part, Trump said late Saturday that his decision would benefit the United States.
He added: “It is a very good decision, and it will be in the country’s interest, and I also believe it will be in the world’s interest.”
American lawmakers from both parties directed sharp criticism at Trump against the backdrop of an executive order he signed on Friday, according to which Russia was exempted from sanctions and customs duties that Congress had approved last month.
The law, which Trump signed in mid-September, targets the Russian energy and defense sectors, President Vladimir Putin and other senior officials, and the so-called “shadow fleet” of Russian oil tankers used to circumvent Western sanctions.
In particular, it delegates to Trump the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on major buyers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India.
But the US President decided to exempt Russia from economic restrictions just two days before the law took effect.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis, known for his criticism of Trump, wrote on the “X” platform: “This goes beyond the bounds of irresponsibility,” adding: “If the president really wants to lower energy prices, he can do so by solving the Iranian problem, not by providing a service to Vladimir Putin.”
For his part, Republican Senator Ted Cruz described the decision as a “mistake.”
Senator Rick Scott, Republican of Florida, said in an interview with the Associated Press: “I think it is clear that Russia is the aggressor, and we must do everything we can to put economic pressure on Russia.” “So this is not the first thing I would do.”
For his part, Republican Senator John Cornyn, from Texas, said, “Lindsey would be shocked,” referring to the late Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican from South Carolina, who worked tirelessly on the bill before his death this summer. The bill is known as the Lindsey Graham Russia Sanctions Act.
Senate Democratic leader, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, said in a statement: “By providing support that keeps the Russian economy alive, Trump’s deal with the devil is getting worse by the day.”
Trump's move came after he agreed with Putin to resume Russian diesel exports in exchange for easing US sanctions on Moscow.
The repercussions of the sharp rise in diesel prices resulting from the war with Iran have begun to affect the American economy, while concerns related to the cost of living top voters’ concerns ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for next month.
Opinion polls indicate that Republicans led by Trump may suffer electoral losses.
“The diesel that Putin was going to sell was going to reach the global market one way or another,” Rubio said. The only difference is the size of the quantities that the United States will receive,” stressing the importance of this fuel for the land transportation, agriculture, and construction sectors in the United States.
Trump's moves come at a time when Ukraine is preparing to face a harsh winter, amid continuing Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, which aim to cut off heating and electricity to civilians.
In contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose relations with Trump have been tense despite maintaining close ties with American lawmakers, urged his supporters to speak out publicly in favor of imposing sanctions.
