Questions are increasing in Lebanon about whether Hezbollah is heading toward internal escalation, in light of the regional transformations and pressures facing Iran. Between the field movements of the “party” supporters, in Beirut and its southern suburbs, and the positions that raise the level of confrontation with the authority, question marks arise as to whether the “party” seeks to establish an equation that prevents the authority from imposing its decisions, or paves the way for escalatory steps at home that keep pace with regional transformations.
In this context, ministerial sources confirm to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the fear of any internal escalation that Hezbollah may resort to exists, but there is no data indicating an imminent matter in this context,” stressing that the security services will continue to perform their role in implementing the government’s decisions, and that “there will be no retreat from this path.”
The sources place Hezbollah's escalatory positions, especially regarding the recently seized shipment of explosives, in the context of the reaction to the measures taken, stressing that these positions will not affect the government's decisions or judicial decisions, and that "there is no direction to withdraw them or to make any concessions to (Hezbollah)."
The sources indicate that a security meeting for the leaders of the security services will be held on Monday afternoon at the Presidential Palace, headed by the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun. To discuss the latest security developments, most notably the explosive shipments that were recently seized.
On the other hand, officials in the Lebanese state emphasize moving forward in implementing the government’s decisions, and in this context came the position of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Youssef Raji, stressing the state’s adherence to its decisions, during his participation in the 52nd session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Iraq.
He said that the government took a decision in August 2025 to limit weapons to the legitimate security services and extend state authority over the entire Lebanese territory by its own forces, stressing that “there is no sovereignty with dual weapons, and no stability with an unruly decision outside state institutions.”
While several parties in Lebanon have warned of an internal escalation that Hezbollah may undertake in the next stage, MP Ibrahim Mneimneh believes that the recent movements of Hezbollah supporters may be in preparation for something waiting for a certain moment, considering that they “suggest an attempt by (the party) to restore the situation that existed before the government’s decisions regarding arms exclusivity, and to show that these decisions are (ink on paper) and that they have no real effects.”
Mneimneh does not rule out that these moves are linked to regional calculations or an Iranian move in light of the new equation that is being drawn up in the region.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Mneimneh stressed that “the basic issue lies in the state’s position and how it deals with any possible move,” warning that “the continued absence of a serious approach to weapons outside the framework of legitimate institutions will keep Lebanon hostage to this reality.”
Mneimneh calls on the state to “resolve its position and begin implementing its decisions, especially the decision (Beirut is free of weapons),” considering that it is “an essential gateway to restoring the state’s prestige and authority, especially in the capital.” He stresses that the real test remains “how legitimacy deals with any challenge to its decisions, and its ability to move from declared positions to actual implementation.”
In turn, MP Antoine Habashi, a member of the Lebanese Forces bloc, believed that Hezbollah’s threat of internal confrontation and intimidation from the civil war aims to buy time, noting that “any internal fighting at this stage will be tantamount to killing it.”
He stressed “the necessity of implementing decisions without any ambiguity,” stressing that “protecting Lebanon from civil war requires the state to fully restore its sovereign decision and confine weapons to its own hands.”
On the ground, the Lebanese Army has been continuing its security measures for days and its deployment in Beirut in general and the southern suburbs and its entrances in particular, anticipating any new movements that the “party” supporters may carry out, especially since investigations into the shipment of explosives that were seized in Dahr al-Baydar, and in the warehouse of spoiled medicines, are still ongoing.
On Friday evening, young men on motorcycles attempted to intercept an Internal Security Forces patrol during a raid on a pharmaceutical warehouse at the entrance to the southern suburb, before the army intervened and the patrol was able to seal the warehouse with red wax.
Although Hezbollah denied its relationship with the warehouse, some information indicates that the son of the party’s Secretary-General, Naeem Qassem, is a partner in the warehouse that contains spoiled medicines. This was confirmed by Representative Paula Yacoubian in an interview on Al-Jadeed TV on Sunday, noting that the second partner is the candidate of the “Shiite duo” for the Pharmacists Syndicate in Lebanon.
Later, Naeem Qassem’s son denied his relationship with the pharmaceutical warehouse, and said in a statement: “This file has become the custody of the competent security and judicial agencies, and the parties concerned with it are authorized to reveal the facts and determine responsibilities.”
The "party" objected to the raid, warning that the security forces would carry out operations in sensitive areas without adopting the "agreed upon mechanism" with the security authorities, in reference to what the situation was like before the recent government decisions related to its weapons.
This was preceded by the “party” announcing its ownership of a truck and the shipment of explosives that the authorities seized at the Dahr al-Baydar checkpoint, which was loaded with about 780 kilograms of explosives, and demanded the release of those arrested and the return of the truck and its cargo, while MP Hassan Fadlallah had said that “(the party) will not tolerate any targeting that implements American demands,” before he placed responsibility on Sunday on the state, asking the authority: “Why are you taking the country? Based on American pressure, into an internal confrontation? Who benefits from it? Will it benefit it and benefit the covenant and the government? Will it benefit her from straining the country and provoking people in this way? Why is there an insistence on providing reasons for internal confrontation?
While most official security sources confirmed the “accidental accident” that led to the explosion of a pile of equipment at the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces east of the Army Canal in Baghdad, the Badr Organization, which falls under the umbrella of the Mobilization Forces and leads at least 10 factions within its forces, insisted that the incident resulted from American targeting, which may reflect a level of “wing struggle” within the organization, according to some sources.
While Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered the formation of a committee to investigate the circumstances of the incident, the contradiction appeared clear in the official statements issued after the severe explosion, the sounds of which were heard in some neighborhoods of Baghdad and flames were seen rising from its location.
Following the incident, the Mobilization Forces issued three brief statements in which they did not clearly explain the truth of what happened. After announcing the occurrence of the incident in the first statement, it came back with another statement and said that it was able to “control the fire resulting from the explosion of a pile of damaged equipment inside one of the Mobilization Forces’ headquarters east of the canal in the capital, Baghdad.”
She confirmed that “the final outcome of the incident resulted in five members being slightly injured,” but news reports spoke of the killing of a member of the “Mobilization Forces” during the explosion.
She pointed out that “the relevant committees have begun their procedures to investigate the circumstances of the accident and determine its causes, with the results being announced as soon as the investigations are completed.”
Then the Mobilization Authority returned and issued a third statement in which it said, “Preliminary investigations of forensic evidence affiliated with the Ministry of Interior indicate that the explosion that occurred in one of the headquarters of the Mobilization Authority was the result of an internal defect and there is no indication of external targeting.”
On the other hand, the representative of the “Badr” parliamentary bloc, Karim Aliwi Al-Mohammadawi, called on the government to reconsider the security agreements and joint coordination with the United States, against the backdrop of the explosion of the “Al-Hashd” headquarters.
Al-Mohammadawi said, in a statement, that “the repeated targeting of the Popular Mobilization Forces by the Americans is a crime that cannot be tolerated,” stressing the need to activate diplomatic and legal frameworks to stop what he described as unjustified attacks.
He added, "The repeated targeting indicates that the United States does not respect the sovereignty of countries, but rather acts on the basis that it is the first and last decision-maker in the Middle East."
Al-Mohammadawi stressed “the need for the government to move all its diplomatic and legal channels to stop the repeated violations.” Because it represents a violation of the Iraqi-American agreement, in light of which the international forces left Iraq.”
This is the first accusation from a member of parliament directed at Washington after the final withdrawal of its forces and the international coalition forces it led in Iraq, at the end of last September.
While neither the Mobilization Forces nor the American sources responded to Al-Muhammadawi’s accusations, sources close to the Mobilization Forces believe that Representative Al-Muhammadawi is “looking for some kind of excitement.”
The sources added to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the matter may be related to a struggle between wings within the PMF, especially in light of the partisan and factional ambitions to assume its presidency and refer its current president to retirement.”
The sources believe that “the explosion incident may have resulted from a failure to preserve explosive materials, and this is unfortunately common, and similar explosions have previously occurred in more than one place as a result of poor storage and the lack of safety conditions in many locations.”
The Popular Mobilization Forces announced last March that US aircraft launched about 32 air strikes on its headquarters and forces during that period, but military estimates and reports speak of more than 70 attacks launched by the United States on the headquarters and sites of the Popular Mobilization Forces at the beginning of this year.
Washington often announces that its attacks focus on armed factions affiliated with Iran operating under the umbrella of the “Mobilization Forces” and launching attacks on sites and camps where its soldiers are located during its presence in Iraq and before its withdrawal last September.
The risks facing the movement of residents between border villages in southern Lebanon are increasing, with the continued Israeli shooting at the entrances to towns and the roads surrounding them, which raises fears of effectively isolating villages without closing their entrances or concentrating inside them.
The repercussions of this reality go beyond daily traffic, extending to people’s access to their agricultural lands and medical centers, in light of the continued Israeli military movements and aerial surveillance of the area. This is a file that Lebanese President Joseph Aoun discussed with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a phone call on Thursday evening.
During the past week, Israeli forces prevented residents of the town of Kafr Shuba from reaching their fields on Thursday, after Israeli sweeping operations, on Tuesday, targeted the Marjayoun-Ebel al-Saqi road, coinciding with the bombing of the outskirts of Haris and Baraashit, and shooting at the entrances to Al-Mansouri.
Retired Brigadier General Dr. Hisham Jaber told Asharq Al-Awsat, “Israel has learned from its previous military experiences. Therefore, this time, it does not want to occupy the southern villages outside the “yellow line” and position itself inside them. Rather, it seeks to occupy strategic locations that overlook the villages located outside this line, allowing it to control the surrounding areas from long distances, and avoid the dangers to which its forces may be exposed if they enter the villages.
He explains that “the current Israeli tactic is based on controlling by fire the main and secondary roads that connect villages to each other, starting from the military sites where the Israeli forces are stationed, in addition to continuous aerial surveillance by drones.”
He points out that “Israeli drones constantly monitor movements, and when they monitor movement on a road, the nature of the vehicles they use is scrutinized. There are types of vehicles that may be targeted simply because they are suspected, including motorcycles that are often targeted, while other vehicles, such as vans, may be exposed to danger depending on the nature of the movement and Israeli suspicions.”
Jaber stresses that “the roads connecting the border villages will become dangerous, even without direct military occupation of them.”
Indeed, some roads have turned into dangerous and isolated roads that cannot be passed through, even though the area is not actually occupied, such as the Nabatieh-Marjayoun road from the Khardali side. No car can pass through it, nor can the roads surrounding Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Kafr Tibnit, and the outskirts of Kafr Rumman, as a result of artillery shelling, intense combing operations with bullets, artillery attacks, and marches.
On October 2, the delegation of the municipality of Deir Mimas, during its meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, requested to ensure that the roads leading to the town remain open, provide basic services, and facilitate farmers’ access to their lands to harvest olives.
In his reading of the continued Israeli bombing of southern villages, Jaber believes that “this bombing does not necessarily mean that there is a new military escalation every time, because Israel already relies on a continuous level of targeting, and resorts to artillery repeatedly to strike specific areas and villages.”
He explains that “the intermittent artillery shelling of some villages, including Kafr Rumman, has a political and security goal, which is to prevent people from returning to their homes, and to prevent residents from settling again in these areas, or from the emergence of any activity that Israel might consider a threat to its forces.”
He adds, "Israel does not need to carry out large-scale ground operations to achieve this goal. Rather, it can keep the villages under pressure with artillery shelling from time to time, which will deter residents from returning and make normal life there difficult."
For his part, retired Brigadier General Saeed Qazah confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the roads linking the border villages in southern Lebanon to each other, as well as the areas under Israeli occupation or facing its positions, remain unsafe areas, in light of the continuing military movements and shooting, and the inability to know the intentions of the Israeli forces or the nature of the operations they may carry out,” warning that “the danger is not limited to the roads, but also affects the people who are still steadfast in their border villages.”
He explains that “the presence of a foreign army occupying the land makes all roads and areas within the scope of the occupation or confronting it permanently vulnerable to danger, because we cannot know the intentions of the occupying forces or the plans they are working to implement, and therefore the presence of the people in the southern villages remains fraught with danger.”
Qazah adds, “Wars always witness collateral damage as a result of gunfire, and these possibilities are taken into account when planning military operations, which explains the extent of the risks to which civilians in or near areas of operations may be exposed.”
He concludes that “the border roads are not completely safe. Rather, all border areas under Israeli occupation, and even the areas opposite them, remain at risk, whether as a result of direct military operations or bullets that may reach them during shooting operations, which makes the movement and residence of civilians in these areas fraught with constant dangers.”
Fears of the isolation of the villages are based on previous field experiences. The Israeli bombing in March disrupted traffic on the Al-Khardali road and the Marjayoun-Hasbaya axis, before they were reopened. On June 4, the Lebanese army announced the opening of the Marjayoun-Debbin-Ebel al-Saqi road after removing Israeli barriers, but it warned at the time against approaching before completing the deployment and detecting the unexploded ordnance.
