Weather forecast, rain returns: instability throughout Italy this week

From today the high pressure will attenuate due to the entry of unstable currents. The first rainfall will occur, extending across much of the country over the next week.

Areas affected by rainfall

Mattia Gussoni, meteorologist at iLMeteo.it, indicates the start of the disturbed phase with rainfall concentrated in Piedmont, Liguria, western Lombardy and the Tyrrhenian areas of Tuscany. From the evening, scattered light rainfall will also affect the Major Islands and the Tyrrhenian sectors of Calabria.

Stable conditions will prevail in the rest of Italy with large sunny spaces and maximum temperatures of up to 23-24°C in the Centre-South and on the two major islands. After a temporary attenuation of the phenomena expected for Monday 19th, with weak residual rainfall confined between lower Piedmont and Liguria, the simulations predict a resumption of instability.

From Tuesday worsening especially in Liguria

Starting from Tuesday 20 October, the entry of an Atlantic trough would favor a general worsening of weather conditions across much of the national territory. The sector of greatest attention could be Liguria, where circulation in the lower layers would favor the genesis of structured storm systems. In this area, a line of convergence could be established between the warm and humid flow of Sirocco, rising from the south-east, and the colder northern currents of Tramontana: the interaction between the two air masses would determine the forced lifting of humid maritime air, triggering convective cells capable of generating rainfall accumulations with hourly intensities locally exceeding 30 mm/h. At the same time, widespread rainfall would affect the remaining Centre-North (with more continuous contributions in upper Piedmont, Lombardy, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Tuscany) and Campania, accompanied by Scirocco gusts estimated at up to 40-50 km/h along the coasts. The partial baric block to the east and the slow evolution of the disturbed system could keep unstable conditions active even on Wednesday 21 October.

In detail

Sunday 18

In the North: widespread rainfall in the North-West and in Lombardy, drier in the North-East.

In the Center: rainfall arriving in Tuscany and the Lazio coast.

In the South and on the Islands: rains in southern Sardinia, Sicily and the Ionian sectors of Calabria.

Monday 19th

In the North: light rains in Piedmont and Liguria.

In the Center: rainy places on the coasts of Tuscany, sunnier elsewhere.

In the South and on the Islands: instability on the Major Islands and on the Ionian sides.

Tuesday 20th

In the North: intense rainfall in the North-West (over 50-60 mm of accumulation in 24 hours).

In the Centre: worsens by evening in Tuscany and Lazio.

In the South and on the Islands: thunderstorms in Sardinia, more stable elsewhere.