With two months to go before the nine-in-one election, the county and mayor elections are heating up. People familiar with the election situation estimate that the DPP will not only hold on to the five seats in the ruling Pingtung County, Kaohsiung City, Tainan City, Chiayi County and Penghu County, but also strive to "turn the blue sky into green space" in Changhua County, Chiayi City, Yilan County, Hsinchu County, and Keelung City. The election in New Taipei City is a stalemate, which is the key among the keys.
In the 2022 county and mayor election, the DPP only won 5 seats, which was the biggest setback since the founding of the party. Voting on November 28 for the 2026 nine-in-one election is not only a critical "midterm exam" for President Lai Ching-te, who is also the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, but also a core indicator that will affect the reorganization of the future political landscape.
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An auxiliary election cadre of the Democratic Progressive Party analyzed that since the Lai government came to power, Taiwan's economy has shown resilience. The annual economic growth rate is estimated to reach 11.05%, which is expected to hit a 39-year high. In local elections, people are paying attention to social welfare and other issues, so the implementation of the The political team adjusted and launched an "18-item gift package" covering childcare, youth support, etc. to inject policy confidence into local elections. With three trump cards (President Lai, Vice President Xiao Meiqin, and former President Tsai Ing-wen) participating in the joint election, they fully boosted the election sentiment.
People within the Democratic Progressive Party said that the main focus of this local election campaign is not to give up any constituencies, strive to win every candidate nominated by the party, and obtain more than 5 county and mayor seats as a benchmark. Looking at the situation in Taiwan, "5 and up is a reasonable guess." If it can win New Taipei City, the largest vote base in the country, it will directly determine the success of the overall election campaign for the Democratic Progressive Party.
According to the analysis of auxiliary election cadres, among the five counties and cities currently governed by the Democratic Progressive Party, the election situation in Pingtung County, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City and Chiayi County is stable, while the election situation in Penghu County is more challenging. However, there are also voices from the outside world that the Kaohsiung mayoral election is tight.
Election auxiliaries believe that although Ke Zhien, the KMT's Kaohsiung mayoral candidate, has gradually regained his organizational affiliation after years of management, his personal political agitation and publicity power is still difficult to match that of former mayor Han Kuo-yu. On the other hand, Lai Ruilong, the Kaohsiung mayoral candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, has been working step by step, working hard at the grassroots level for many years, striving for substantive construction, and using the "nine-square grid strategy" to integrate the party's three major types of organizations, including public offices, industries, and associations, with the three major regions of Fengshan, Gangshan, and Qishan. As long as it is steady and steady, the DPP is expected to continue to be in power.
In Penghu County, local people said that the current county magistrate Chen Guangfu narrowly won the "three-legged governor" situation at the time, but was hospitalized due to a serious fall. Instead, his wife Wu Shujin, who had mostly lived behind the scenes, was appointed to run for the election. Although local legislator Yang Yao and Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Qimai and others were fully supportive, the polls were still at a disadvantage and they struggled to find room for breakthroughs.
In addition to the five counties and cities currently in power by the Democratic Progressive Party, party insiders analyzed that Changhua County, Chiayi City, Yilan County, Hsinchu County, and Keelung City are listed as having the opportunity to "turn blue skies into green spaces." Although the election situation in Taichung City is difficult, there is progress. In New Taipei City, Su Qiaohui, the New Taipei City mayoral candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, has mastered the pace of the election, and her momentum continues to rise. The current election situation is showing a "twist and twist" situation, and the polls with the New Taipei City mayoral candidate Li Sichuan of the Kuomintang are within the margin of error.
As for the Taipei mayoral election, which is of great concern to all walks of life, local people from the Democratic Progressive Party said that the DPP candidate Shen Boyang was born as a scholar and is an atypical political figure. After being nominated by the DPP on May 13, he lagged behind significantly in the polls and was not favored from the beginning. In working diligently at the grassroots level, proposing multiple municipal visions to bring about positive discussions, and standing on the soap box to talk face-to-face with the public about municipal solutions, coupled with his quick thinking and smooth eloquence when interviewed by the media, he is in sharp contrast to Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan.
Local sources said that although Shen Boyang is currently lagging behind in the polls, his efforts in the past four months have attracted the votes of many young people and the middle class, which has ignited the enthusiasm of the green-leaning supporters in the center, setting off an "ocean current" craze and a surge in momentum. With the establishment of Shen Boyang's campaign headquarters on October 4, the overall morale is expected to reach another peak, and the subsequent effects are of great concern.
As for Taitung County in Houshan, local people believe that thanks to the efforts of Tsai Ing-wen and others, the Democratic Progressive Party has shown great unity, and President Lai has frequently traveled to Taitung recently to boost the election of Chen Ying, the candidate for county governor. In addition, the family of Wu Xiuhua, the KMT's candidate for Taitung county governor, was involved in the farm road fraud case. Under the influence of multiple factors, Chen Ying's election prospects are bullish and close to the golden cross.
Local people also believe that the general environment in Taitung this time is favorable to the DPP. If the DPP can continue to maintain unity and get 40% of the votes from indigenous peoples, Chen Ying has room to compete.
Party insiders also pointed out that what is special about this election is that it actively promotes generational change and allows a large number of young generations to participate in the election of township mayors. For example, former DPP spokesperson Han Ying ran for mayor of Yilan, DPP Nantou County Councilor Shen Suzheng ran for Nantou mayor, and Changhua County Councilor Huang Baiyu challenged the mayor of Changhua. They hope to cultivate local political talents for the next stage. The election results are worthy of attention.
