The U.S. midterm elections will take place on the 3rd. Voters, who are suffering from high inflation and soaring cost of living, will use their ballots to take a "midterm test" against President Trump and the Republican Party that controls Congress. However, many political and economic analysts in Asia warned that even if the Republicans suffer a crushing defeat, Asian countries still need to prepare for further global trade turmoil.
Since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, he has upended the global trade order with his unruly tariff policy and launched a war against Iran, causing oil prices to soar. Pre-election polls show that the Republican Party, which currently controls both houses of Congress, is very likely to lose the House of Representatives, and control of the Senate is also locked in a fierce battle.
Jamus Lim (transliteration), associate professor of economics at the French Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerce (ESSEC), pointed out that if the Republican Party loses one or both houses of Congress, Congress may take action to limit Trump's ability to unilaterally conclude trade agreements and weaken the United States' bargaining chips, but "the president's executive power can still be used."
Constitutionally, the U.S. Congress has the power to regulate foreign trade and impose tariffs. However, the current Congress has little intention of reasserting its power, allowing Trump to easily bypass legislative approval through executive orders and emergency bills. Since Trump launched the "reciprocal" tariff mechanism on the so-called "Liberation Day" in April last year, few Asian countries have been able to reach legally binding and fully operational trade commitments with the Trump administration.
For example, most countries, such as Malaysia and Indonesia, only have administrative-led bilateral agreements, while negotiations with Thailand or Vietnam only remain at the "framework" or memorandum of understanding (MOU) level.
Lin Mingzhi further pointed out that even if the Democrats control Congress, they are traditionally less inclined to free trade than the Republicans, so it is unrealistic to expect the Democrats to promote trade liberalization. In addition, to pass legislation to repeal or block specific tariffs, a two-thirds absolute majority in both houses of Congress is required to override the president's veto, which is an almost impossible task under the current political landscape.
Vivek Mishra, deputy director of strategic research at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India, warned that if the Republican Party loses both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Trump is likely to resort to "high-powered executive domination", that is, to govern the country directly with executive orders.
Mishra is worried that this may stimulate Trump to restart a punitive tariff war against countries with huge trade deficits with the United States, or further expand the attack on Iran. Since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February this year, the price of Brent crude oil has soared from about US$70 per barrel to more than US$104 in early trading on the 3rd. The global spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has soared nearly three times, which is undoubtedly adding insult to injury for Asian energy importing countries.
Biswajit Dhar, a distinguished professor of economics at the Indian Council for Social Development (CSD), also expressed a pessimistic view, predicting that Trump will intensify his efforts in the last two years of his second term. "In order to prove his strength, he will become more aggressive." If Trump intends to break the constitutional restrictions and seek a third term, he will inevitably resort to a more extreme nationalist line. He suggested that Asian countries should continue to deepen trade diversification rather than hoping for a future shift in U.S. trade policy.
Uday Chandra, a visiting professor of political science at Ashoka University in India, believes that although a hostile Congress can contain Trump's domestic agenda through investigations and budget restrictions, its actual influence on trade policy is still unknown. Therefore, Asian countries must recognize that the unpredictability of U.S. economic policy is unlikely to disappear when Trump leaves office.
