[Glocal] ‘Musk’s 600 billion bet’ on the US midterm elections

If the Republican Party wins, there is a greater possibility that the regulations that Musk wants will be lifted.

Attention is paid to the potential for damage and political influence in the ‘blue wave’

The world's richest person, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and Space

The New York Times reported that Musk has spent a total of $474 million (approximately 636 billion won) on federal and state-level political groups since last year, even though he is neither a candidate for Senate or House of Representatives nor a candidate for governor. He has essentially thrown the dice that will determine his fate in this midterm election.

Musk bet a large sum of money on the Republican Party, the ruling party to which President Donald Trump belongs. Among Republican donors, Musk ranked first by far. It has served as a strong supporter of Republican candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as gubernatorial candidates.

According to U.S. political funding laws, there is a limit to the amount that companies can donate to individual candidates as general political funds, but unlimited donations can be made through 'super PACs' (super PACs, political action committees). Super PACs do not directly provide funds to specific candidates, but independently support them through TV advertisements or phone campaigns.

The legal foundation for Super PAC was laid in the 2010 U.S. Supreme Court's 'Citizens United' decision and the Federal Appeals Court's 'SpeechNow' decision. The former allowed independent political spending by companies, etc., and the latter removed the donation limit for political groups that only made independent spending.

Musk's spending of political funds is carried out within the framework of current laws. However, legitimate political participation and concerns that large sums of money may undermine the fairness of democracy are separate issues. It also reveals the limitations of the system in that the enormous financial power of certain individuals can influence the direction of elections.

There are also political risks for Musk. It has been reported that the Democratic Party is preparing to target Musk, a 'big donor' to the Republican Party, under the expectation that it will be able to defeat the Republican Party in this midterm election.

Then, Musk recently posted on the social media (SNS) It appears that he is warning of the possibility of political retaliation from the Democratic Party.

He is a person whose trademarks are ‘original ideas’ and ‘tendency to be unexpected’. Even taking this into account, it is not easy to understand the conflicting political moves. Above all, doubts are growing about what he, a businessman, may have taken on a gamble-like bet to gain in this midterm election.

It is necessary to pay attention to Musk's core businesses such as Tesla, SpaceX, xAI (artificial intelligence), and Neuralink. Most of these businesses are under government contracts and are subject to strong government regulation. While the Democratic Party is relatively strict on autonomous driving and AI safety regulations, the Republican Party is active in easing regulations.

If the Republican Party takes control of Congress, it could pave the way for Musk to lift the regulations he wants, but if the Democratic Party wins, the risks will inevitably increase. The increase in wealth tax and corporate tax promoted by the Democratic Party is also a factor that could be a burden on Musk, a 'trillionaire'. These are the passages that allow us to gauge his choice.

The United States institutionally allows lobbying and political fund donations, but does not protect the act of exchanging unfair compensation in the process. The results of the US election, also called 'Zen's War', are attracting the world's attention as they could cause upheaval both inside and outside the US.

Musk risked 600 billion won and entrusted much of his business and political future to the Republican Party. If the Democratic Party's 'blue wave' of victory predicted by some becomes a reality, a blow is expected to be inevitable. The results of this election are even more curious as they appear to answer the question, 'How much political influence can money buy?'