[US midterm election] Harvard University says, “Democratic victory probability is 96% in the House of Representatives and 78% in the Senate.”

The Democratic Party is expected to win 242 seats in the House of Representatives... Some predict a 'blue tsunami' for the Democratic Party's landslide victory

(Washington = Yonhap News) Correspondent Baek Na-ri = Harvard University predicted that the Democratic Party's probability of winning the House of Representatives and the Senate in this midterm election was 96% and 78%.

According to Harvard University's election model on the 3rd (local time), the probability that the Democratic Party will regain the majority in the midterm elections is 96%, and it is predicted that it will occupy up to 242 out of 436 seats.

Harvard University commented, "The Republican Party's probability of winning the House of Representatives is the same as the probability of rolling a '20' on a 20-sided die," and added, "This election is a typical midterm election in which the ruling party loses seats."

The Democratic Party's probability of winning the Senate was 78%. Harvard University predicted that the Democratic Party would become the majority party, taking 53 out of 100 seats in the Senate.

Among the seven close Senate battles, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska were predicted to have a 'Democratic advantage', while South Carolina and Nebraska were predicted to have a 'Republican advantage'. Harvard University's analysis is that Iowa is in a close race.

Some predict that the Democratic Party can go beyond the 'Blue Wave' (Democratic Party victory) and create a 'Blue Tsunami' (Democratic Party landslide victory).

Nate Silver, an American election forecasting expert, predicted that a blue tsunami was possible based on the results of a public opinion poll released by the New York Times (NYT) on the 1st ahead of the election.

The NYT poll analyzed that the Democratic Party has an advantage in six out of seven Senate battlegrounds. Except for Iowa, where the two parties' candidates are tied, the Democratic candidate is ahead in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Michigan.

If these survey results come true, the Democratic Party will be able to regain the majority by succeeding in a net increase of more than 4 seats in the Senate.

Silver is a figure who attracted national attention by guessing the winner of 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.

With the prospect of the Democratic Party regaining the majority in the House of Representatives raised early on, attention is focused on how much the Democratic Party will win by widening the gap in seats.

Midterm elections are usually a judgment on the ruling party. In this midterm election, voters are expected to focus on the high inflation caused by the Iran war, the tariff war that does not discriminate between allies, and hardline immigration policies.