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Back黃金本週跌慘了!創6月初以來最慘紀錄 分析師一句話潑冷水
黃金本週跌慘了!創6月初以來最慘紀錄 分析師一句話潑冷水
Developing
自由时报18 minutes agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

黃金本週跌慘了!創6月初以來最慘紀錄 分析師一句話潑冷水

美國PPI數據符合預期,金價週五小幅走揚,但週四拋售導致本週整體收跌

Quick Look

黃金價格本週下跌約4.5%,創下6月初以來最差單週表現。現貨黃金週五上漲0.1%,報每盎司3879.71美元,但週四曾重挫3%跌至一年多來新低。美國PPI數據符合預期,市場預估聯準會12月升息25個基點的機率為91.4%。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

美國通膨數據大致符合市場預期,緩解了市場對聯準會大幅升息的部分押注。PPI數據公布後,金價一度觸及當日高點,但週四拋售導致本週整體收跌。

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黃金價格本週下跌約4.5%,創下6月初以來最差單週表現。(彭博)

〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕美國通膨數據大致符合市場預期,緩解了市場對聯準會大幅升息的部分押注,帶動金價週五(13日)走揚。然而由於金價週四(12日)遭到拋售,跌至一年多來新低,使黃金本週仍收跌。

現貨黃金上漲0.1%,報每盎司3879.71美元。美國生產者物價指數(PPI)數據公布後,金價一度觸及當日高點每盎司3922.97美元。

12月交割的美國黃金期貨收盤大致持平,報每盎司3886.30美元。

數據顯示,美國最終需求生產者物價指數(PPI)上個月上漲0.3%,低於9月經上修後的1.4%漲幅。《路透》原先調查預測,PPI將上漲0.4%。

獨立分析師Tai Wong表示:「在債券市場持續承壓、面臨聯準會鷹派立場的情況下,金價難以守住PPI數據公布後的初步漲幅。PPI並未像上個月一樣出現超乎預期的高漲幅,但核心PPI月增0.3%,對政策制定者而言仍然太高。」

由於油價上漲,引發市場對通膨升溫及利率維持高檔的擔憂,金價週四重挫3%,跌至一年多來新低。本周稍早公布的消費者物價指數(CPI)數據高於預期,也進一步加劇金價跌勢。

這導致黃金價格本週下跌約4.5%,創下6月初以來最差單週表現。

Tai Wong補充表示:「對黃金而言,這是艱難的一週。隨著聯準會鷹派人士強勢表態,金價可能難以重新站上每盎司4000美元。」

根據芝商所(CME)的FedWatch工具,市場目前預估,聯準會12月升息1碼(25個基點)的機率為91.4%,低於PPI數據公布前的96.2%。不過,市場目前預估升息2碼(50個基點)的機率為8.6%,也低於PPI公布前的13.8%。

其他貴金屬方面,現貨白銀下跌1.9%,報每盎司49.05美元;現貨白金下跌1.9%,報每盎司1490.06美元;現貨鈀金則上漲1.1%,報每盎司1004.40美元。3種貴金屬本週都收跌。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 聯準會12月將升息25個基點

    Very likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • 聯準會12月最終是否會升息25個基點
  • 黃金價格是否能重新站上每盎司4000美元
  • 未來幾週通膨數據走向如何

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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