More than 60 companies issued price increase letters! Prices of important automobile parts and raw materials have soared

Since the beginning of this year, rubber prices have continued to rise. As of the close of October 8, the main rubber contract price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,145 yuan per ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 28% during the year, which was at a nine-year high.

Tires are the largest downstream product of natural rubber. Statistics show that since September, more than 60 tire companies have issued more than 70 price increase letters.

What is the reason for this round of rubber price increases? How to affect the upper, middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain?

upstream

“Everyone who went out to work has returned to Xishuangbanna to tap rubber.”

The materials for car tires and medical gloves may all be related to rubber trees. The country's rubber forest planting area is about 17 million acres, and Xishuangbanna, Yunnan alone accounts for more than 27% of the country's planting area.

Collecting milky white latex from cut rubber trees is the source of the entire rubber industry chain. Local rubber farmers told reporters that their income has increased significantly due to the increase in purchase prices.

"Now, about 600 rubber trees are harvested a day, which is equivalent to about 35 kilograms of dry rubber. In the past few years, the daily income was about more than 300 yuan, and now it has increased to more than 500 yuan. Most of the people who went out to work came back to tap rubber." Rubber farmer Yang Qinghua said.

The person in charge of a local rubber-making company in Yunnan said that in the past few years, the industry as a whole was in a low-price cycle, coupled with local abnormal weather that reduced latex output, and rubber farmers were not enthusiastic about tapping rubber, resulting in limited supply of raw materials and insufficient production line operating rates. As rubber prices continue to rise this year, rubber farmers are more enthusiastic about tapping rubber, and the supply of raw materials has gradually caught up. Coupled with sufficient downstream demand orders, the operating rate of enterprise production lines has also returned to about 70%.

midstream

Trade turnover accelerates and rubber inventory levels decline

After the latex raw materials are processed into primary rubber products, they are collected and distributed through the midstream trade link, and then transferred to downstream enterprises such as tires. The inventory situation in the midstream trade link is an important barometer of the entire industry chain.

Qingdao, Shandong Province is my country's largest natural rubber trading center. Fu Xinxiang, the person in charge of a rubber futures delivery warehouse, told reporters that since the beginning of this year, the inventory turnover period has been compressed from half a year to about three months, and inventory levels have dropped significantly. "In previous years, our overall rubber inventory in Qingdao was about 150,000 tons, and our current inventory in Qingdao is about 90,000 tons."

The reporter learned that despite the relative increase in raw material prices, downstream tire factories and others are supported by the rigid demand for production capacity, and the purchase volume is generally stable. Some companies will also lock in goods in advance according to the rising price trend.

Industry insiders believe that this round of rubber price increases is the result of the resonance of the three factors of industry cycle, weather premium and macro capital.

In terms of the industrial cycle, the growth of global rubber tree harvesting area has slowed down, and supply has entered a contraction cycle.

In terms of weather premium, heavy rainfall in many places in Southeast Asia, the world's main rubber-producing area, affected the number of rubber tapping days, and the market responded in advance to expectations of production cuts.

In anticipation of loose global liquidity, funds poured into commodities such as rubber, amplifying price fluctuations.

Industry insiders believe that the current rubber import volume and domestic output have not declined significantly, and the price increase is more of an expected reflection.

downstream

Rising raw material costs, tire companies take multiple measures to respond

Tires are the largest downstream product of natural rubber. The increase in the price of rubber raw materials directly affects the costs and benefits of the tire industry.

According to statistics, since September, more than 60 tire companies have issued more than 70 price increase letters, covering all categories of all-steel tires, semi-steel tires, and engineering tires. The price adjustment range is generally between 2% and 5%.

The raw materials of tires account for more than 70% of the production cost, mainly including the three core raw materials of natural rubber, synthetic rubber and carbon black.

Wang Xiaocai, sales director of Shandong Huasheng Rubber Co., Ltd., said that natural rubber has increased by about 15% from the beginning of the year to now, and carbon black has increased by more than 75%. Affected by international oil prices, synthetic rubber and various chemical auxiliary materials have increased by about 15% to 20% respectively.

In response to changes in raw material costs, tire companies have adopted diversified strategies to respond. On the one hand, production capacity will be appropriately adjusted from scheduling based on quarterly total volume to scheduling based on orders. On the other hand, through hedging in the futures market, the cost of raw materials is locked in advance, that is, futures contracts for the corresponding quantity of raw materials are purchased at the agreed price. If the price of raw materials increases in the future, the profit from the futures can make up for the increase in spot costs; if the price of raw materials decreases, although the futures will lose money, the spot costs will decrease simultaneously, which can keep the overall cost stable.