[US midterm election] “Possibility of restrictions on South Korea’s operational control and nuclear submarines… North Korea-US dialogue depends on North Korea’s judgment”

With the Democratic Party taking control of both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, U.S. experts predict that Congressional checks on President Donald Trump's tariff policy and attempts to reduce U.S. troops stationed in Korea may be strengthened.

Analysis was also raised that although the United States' extended deterrence pledge, which is the core of the ROK-US alliance, will be maintained, Korea's introduction of nuclear-powered submarines or transfer of wartime operational control may be restricted due to the nuclear non-proliferation principle valued by the Democratic Party and opposition within Congress.

Regarding the relationship between North Korea and the United States, there is a possibility that President Trump will put more effort into summit diplomacy with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un, but whether or not the actual meeting will take place will depend on North Korea, and there are observations that there may be greater restrictions on the United States' negotiating cards, such as easing sanctions against North Korea.

Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, told Yonhap News on the 4th (local time), "Considering President Trump's tendency to pursue foreign policy through executive orders or unilateral decisions, the overall impact of the midterm election results on Korea-US relations will not be that great."

However, he predicted, “President Trump’s existing tariffs are likely to be maintained, but the imposition of new tariffs may meet resistance from Congress.”

Regarding the Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, where President Trump has been pressuring Korea to invest, Chairperson Yeo predicted, "President Trump may continue to urge allies to invest in order to leave his legacy behind, but allies such as Korea may be more hesitant and skeptical about investing in a project that is likely to fail after the 2028 (election)."

Other experts also predicted that the Democratic-controlled Congress could put a brake on the Trump administration's tariff policy or investment pressure on allies.

“Congress will try to check inappropriate administration policies, such as tariffs or attempts to withdraw U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula,” said Patrick Cronin, chair of Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Korea Robert Rapson also said, “The results of this election are undoubtedly very good news for our allies, including Korea,” and added, “There is a possibility that the coercive trade and investment agreement through tariffs will be reviewed by the Democratic Party.”

Former Acting Ambassador Rapson predicted that the Democratic Party would also block President Trump's attempts to weaken the alliance, such as reducing military training or reducing U.S. troops stationed in Korea.

However, Alan Kim, a senior researcher at the Korea-U.S. Economic Institute (KEI), said, “Even if Congress tries to limit President Trump’s tariff policy through legislation, the president can exercise his veto power,” and added, “It will be difficult to limit the tariff policy without bipartisan cooperation from the Republican Party.”

It has been raised that Korea's introduction of nuclear-powered submarines and the transfer of wartime operational control may face opposition from the Democratic Party-dominated Congress.

“The Democratic Party may adhere more strongly to non-proliferation norms than the Republican Party, which could be an obstacle to the Lee Jae-myung administration’s ability to secure nuclear-powered submarines,” Yeo said.

He also analyzed that although President Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth are relatively open to the transfer of wartime operational control by 2030, the Democratic-controlled Congress is likely to raise more questions and oppose it.

Cronin also said, “Long-standing bipartisan support for core alliance commitments, including extended deterrence, will remain relatively solid,” but “ambitious commitments, such as cooperation on nuclear-powered submarines, may be delayed or hindered.”

Former Acting Ambassador Rapson also pointed out that it is unclear how much the Democratic Party will support Korea's introduction of nuclear-powered submarines and expansion of uranium enrichment and reprocessing authority, and that the Democratic Party's concerns regarding the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) remain significant.

He also pointed out that “the Democratic Party’s position on the early transfer of wartime operational control is unclear.”

Researcher Kim also predicted, “The Democratic Party-dominated Congress could strengthen monitoring and supervision of the nuclear-powered submarine project, which could further delay project progress.”

There are also predictions that President Trump may focus more on achieving diplomatic results, such as the North Korea-US summit, as he suffers a political blow from his defeat in the midterm elections.

Chair Cronin said, “As a result of this election, there is an increased possibility that President Trump will put more effort into summit diplomacy, including with Chairman Kim Jong-un.”

However, it was predicted that with the Democratic Party's control of Congress, President Trump will face greater restrictions in proposing sanctions relief against North Korea or reduction of the size of the U.S. military presence in Northeast Asia and joint training.

Chairman Yeo said, “If Kim Jong-un says he is ready to meet with President Trump, President Trump will make every effort to make the meeting happen,” but predicted that North Korea will maintain a wait-and-see attitude toward North Korea-US diplomacy for the time being.

“For North Korea’s leadership, negotiating with a weakened U.S. president may seem somewhat more attractive than it did before the midterm elections,” said Scott Snyder, director of the Korea-U.S. Economic Institute (KEI). “The key will depend on whether Pyongyang sees this as a special opportunity or whether it judges it unnecessary in light of current strategic needs.”

Rapson, a former acting ambassador, said that while President Trump may seek to resume talks with North Korea, it is unclear how much incentive North Korea will have to negotiate with a president who is in a "lame duck."

Researcher Kim pointed out, “The key is whether Kim Jong-un will show interest in a meeting with Trump, who will become a lame-duck president from January 2027, and whether he will judge what kind of agreement is realistically possible.”