A warning against the merging of regional crises into a single geopolitical theater extending from Africa to Asia

Montefiore believes that major alliances and deals in the region not only suggest a new era, but also push multiple geopolitical theaters toward convergence, changing the rules of the game globally. He says that the region's conflicts are no longer limited to its neighbourhood, but are fused into one theater extending from the African coast to the Bay of Bengal.

The author identifies six converging arenas: the first of which is the intertwining of the conflict in Ukraine with the confrontation between Iran, Israel, the United States, and the Gulf. The second is the Caucasus and Central Asia. The third is what he calls the “Byzantine theatre,” which includes the Turkish-Greek competition over the eastern Mediterranean. The fourth is South Asia, the fifth is East Africa and the Red Sea, and the sixth is the African Sahel region.

The writer considers South Asia the most dangerous of these theaters, because India and Pakistan are two nuclear powers that have fought five wars since the partition of 1947, the last of which was in 2025. He believes that the greatest danger is the merging of the Ukrainian crisis with the American-Israeli-Iranian war and the outbreak of an Indian-Pakistani conflict.

The writer cites new alliances, most notably the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement” between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. According to the American Council on Foreign Relations, the three countries signed the agreement on August 7, and its text was not officially published, but reports indicate a clause that considers an attack on any party an attack on all, similar to Article Five in the NATO Charter.

The writer also mentions a defense deal between Greece and Israel worth $3.5 billion, and describes it as the largest arms export deal in Israel's history. He refers to security agreements signed by Vladimir Zelensky with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar to provide them with drone interception teams. He confirms that the Abraham Accords are "still alive."

Montefiore believes that the new alliances are not based on a Sunni-Shiite duality, but rather on a conflict between an open, pro-Western approach represented by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, and the “resistance” approach represented by Iran and its allies. He says that Türkiye, Iran and Israel are competing for hegemony, but none of them has the chance to do so.

At the level of major powers, the writer says that Russia and China provide Iran with intelligence information. He adds that China buys about 90% of Iranian oil, and at the same time maintains its relations with Washington's allies. He concludes that the United States, if it is balanced and cohesive, is the only power capable of managing this scene.

The author's warnings coincide with developments on several fronts. The UAE Attorney General, Hamad Saif Al Shamsi, announced on Saturday that the co-pilot on Flydubai flight FZ1073 attempted to carry out a terrorist act, as he attacked the pilot of the plane with an emergency ax and tried to control the controls. According to passengers' accounts, some passengers on the plane and crew members were able to control the situation, and the plane made an emergency landing safely in Saudi Arabia.

Regarding the Iranian file, Bloomberg reported that inflation in Iran is approaching 90%, and that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering despite the Iranian attacks, while Trump is sending another aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and marines. Preliminary estimates by the agency showed that Iran did not load any crude oil onto tankers in September. Saudi crude exports rose to about 6.1 million barrels per day in September, compared to 3.4 million in August.

In the Horn of Africa, Eritrea announced the severing of its diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, after Addis Ababa announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and the expulsion of 10 Eritrean diplomats. Egypt and Ethiopia also expelled diplomats. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting an opposition coalition led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front, which the three countries deny. On Sunday, Egypt hosted a summit in New Alamein that brought together President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, and Sudanese Sovereignty Council President Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.

In the Ethiopian capital, Bloomberg reported that two explosions were heard on Wednesday night, suspected of being caused by drone attacks. The agency quoted diplomats that one of the two explosions occurred near the “4 Kilo” area in the city center, and the other near the headquarters of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. According to Agence France-Presse, there were reports of an explosion at the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense, which includes the General Command of the Army in the Tor Hailuch area. A diplomatic source told the agency that the drones were likely to be the reason, but said that he had not obtained pictures or independent confirmation. The government and army declined to comment.

On the Pakistani-Afghan front, the Taliban government said that Pakistani raids hit Helmand and Kunar provinces, while the Pakistani Ministry of Information announced a preliminary toll of 22 militants killed. On the other hand, the United Nations mission in Afghanistan confirmed that at least 10 civilians were killed and 9 others were injured.