Israel has raised its threat to expand its occupation in southern Lebanon, with its Defense Minister, Yisrael Katz, hinting at adding the Nabatieh and Litani regions to what he described as the “permanent security zone,” in the event that Hezbollah becomes involved in a potential confrontation between Israel and Iran. These threats raised questions about the locations that the Israeli forces may seek to control, and the extent of their readiness to carry out a broader ground operation, amid continuing military movements and the approaching Knesset elections in the Hebrew state.
Katz had threatened to evacuate the residents of large areas in the south, up to the Zahrani and Awali rivers, in addition to the southern suburb of Beirut, speaking about the displacement of more than a million people, and confirming the Israeli army’s readiness to carry out a ground maneuver.
The threats come after Israeli forces expanded their deployment towards strategic heights, most notably the Shaqif and Ali al-Taher Castle near Nabatieh, while the heights of Rayhan, Sajd, and Jabal al-Rafi’ were subjected to Israeli raids, which raises questions about the possibility of expanding control over the heights and geographical corridors.
Israel seeks natural geographical barriers
Retired Brigadier General Fadi Daoud believed that the Israeli threats go beyond targeting Hezbollah and dismantling its military structure, and are linked to other political and geographical goals. Daoud told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Military sites and ground operations, regardless of their size or depth, must serve the idea of military maneuver on the ground, and this maneuver in turn serves a major political goal,” explaining that “the Israeli goal is not limited to striking Hezbollah’s centers and dismantling its military structure, but rather goes beyond that to goals related to geography and control of the land.”
He pointed out that “reading the Israeli movements in southern Lebanon requires looking at what is happening in southern Syria, specifically in the Quneitra countryside and the Jabal al-Sheikh region, where it appears that the two paths are interconnected and intertwined within an Israeli trend based on using geography to create security zones.”
Daoud stressed that “the reading of Israeli intentions must start from field facts, and not from statements alone,” noting that “Israel has not yet reached the stage it seeks to reach, and that any military progress is taking place according to successive stages, regardless of the distance to which it is required to advance.”
He explained: “Any military action, even if the required advance does not exceed 100 meters, is divided into stages, starting with fire preparation and securing the flanks, then launching into the attack and stabilizing positions,” pointing out that “the lines of military stages are usually based on natural geographical barriers, which allow the attacking forces to stabilize their deployment and organize their defenses.”
He stressed that “the lesson is not what Israel says, but rather what it does on the ground and the locations it seeks to reach,” explaining that “Israeli forces seek to stand at a clear geographical line, and they cannot stop in the middle of an area without relying on a geographical barrier that allows them to establish their presence.”
Daoud raised the possibility of Israeli military ambitions extending to the Awali River, north of Sidon, adding that “the Israeli forces’ arrival to the Awali River line and its control means expanding the security belt to a great depth inside Lebanese territory, and that control over this line will be reflected in all the areas south of it, including Iqlim al-Tuffah and the villages surrounding it.”
Escalation linked to Iran
In turn, retired Brigadier General Naji Malaeb linked Israeli threats to military preparations and the possibilities of confrontation with Iran, in light of the approaching Israeli elections.
Malaeb told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz’s talk about the possibility of reaching the Awali River means that the threats are no longer limited to the Nabatieh district or the Litani area, but rather include a broader geographical scope extending to Sidon and its surroundings,” pointing out that “the threats were not limited to the south, but also included the southern suburbs of Beirut, which reflects a major escalation in Israeli rhetoric on the eve of the elections.”
He explained that “these threats are accompanied by an important Israeli military movement on the ground, represented by the 282nd Artillery Brigade’s completion of extensive training that included how to deal with the drones used by Hezbollah, as well as evacuation operations during battles,” noting that “the brigade moved directly after the end of its training to southern Lebanon, which means that Israel now possesses an additional artillery force, in addition to the already existing forces, and is ready to move if military orders are issued to do so.”
Malaeb stressed that “the possibility of expanding Israeli military operations is not linked to specific geographical locations as much as it is linked to the nature of the Israeli decision, and the extent of (Hezbollah’s) interference in any new confrontation that may occur between Israel and Iran,” explaining that “developments may take different paths, whether if Iran decides to exploit the Israeli election period to carry out attacks or influence their course, or if Israel tends to expand the war against Iran before or during the elections.”
He pointed out that “the possibility of expanding the confrontation with Iran was the subject of discussion between the United States and Israel, in light of the reservations expressed by Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir regarding the repercussions of entering into a confrontation whose repercussions may be difficult for Israel, especially if it is not prepared for it militarily, and in light of the approaching electoral deadline.”
Regarding Hezbollah’s preparations, Malaeb considered that “the Lebanese security forces’ seizure of one truck (loaded with explosives) linked to the party does not necessarily mean that it is the only one that crossed, as it is possible that other trucks may have passed without being seized,” noting that “this matter raises the possibility that the party is in the process of preparing for some kind of military action, in the event of a new regional confrontation breaking out,” stressing that “the main question today is not which locations Israel may seek to control, but rather whether... The political and military decision to expand operations will be taken.”
Field developments
On the ground, Israeli warplanes launched a violent raid on Kafr Tibnit in the Nabatieh district, coinciding with an air and artillery escalation in the Tire and Bint Jbeil districts, which included 3 raids on Al-Mansouri and a fourth on Wadi Zebqin. The artillery shelling targeted Ra'ashit, Hadatha, the outskirts of Haris, the vicinity of Zibqin and Shaqra, then Al-Mansouri and Majdal Zoun at dawn. The warplanes carried out mock raids over Tyre and the surrounding villages, and dropped flares over Al-Mansouri and Al-Siyad’s homes. The Lebanese Ministry of Health announced that two people, including a 4-year-old child, were injured in a raid on juveniles. In Kfar Shuba, an Israeli force prevented Lebanese farmers from entering the Azrael and Bastra areas to harvest olives, amid continuing difficulties for residents of the border villages to reach their agricultural lands.
