The EU warned of a possible gas shortage in winter

BRUSSELS, Oct 9 - RIA Novosti. The European Union may face a gas shortage of up to 15% of its needs in the coming winter in the event of severe cold, limited supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a complete cessation of pipeline imports from Russia, according to the winter forecast of the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG), which was reviewed by RIA Novosti.

The report, published on October 8, examines various scenarios for the 2026-2027 heating season. In particular, with a cold winter, limited availability of LNG and a complete cessation of pipeline supplies from the Russian Federation, the need to reduce gas consumption or potential uncovered demand could reach 15%.

At the same time, the risk of gas shortage has increased compared to last year’s calculations by the organization. In the ENTSOG forecast for the 2025-2026 heating season, with a cold winter, interruption of supplies from Russia and limited LNG imports, the need to reduce demand was estimated at a maximum of 13%. Thus, the worst-case scenario indicator increased by two percentage points.

The authors of the new study note that Europe is entering the heating season with historically low gas reserves in underground storage facilities and higher and more unstable global fuel prices. According to ENTSOG, as of October 1, European gas storage facilities were only 72% full (83% a year earlier), which in volume terms corresponds to a reduction of approximately 11 billion cubic meters.

The document warns that with limited LNG supplies, storage stocks could fall well below 30% by the end of the heating season. This will increase risks in the event of severe cold in late winter and make it difficult to restore stocks in the summer.

Countries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe remain particularly vulnerable, as they face infrastructure constraints in obtaining additional liquefied gas. The existing capacity of gas transportation networks does not always allow for the smooth transfer of fuel from the western regions of the continent to the eastern.

At the same time, ENTSOG emphasizes that the European gas transportation infrastructure retains the ability to provide consumers with fuel with sufficient availability of LNG. Thus, assessments of possible deficits relate to stress scenarios and not to inevitable developments.

The European Union is consistently pursuing a policy of abandoning Russian energy resources, hoping to replace pipeline supplies from Russia with purchases of LNG and imports from alternative sources. The remaining volumes of Russian pipeline gas are supplied to European countries mainly via the Turkish Stream route.