The confrontation between Washington and Tehran fluctuates between diplomatic efforts to resume negotiations and contain the escalation, and continued American pressure to restrict Iran’s capabilities and military supplies, amid mixed indications regarding the chances of reaching a settlement or returning to military confrontation.
In this context, US Vice President J.D. Vance personally participated, during the past two weeks, in indirect talks with Iran, with the aim of reaching a new ceasefire agreement and resuming negotiations, according to what the Axios website revealed, citing two sources familiar with these contacts.
According to Axios, Vance's intense involvement in these talks reflects his assumption of responsibility for getting the United States out of the war, which he held responsible for the significant loss suffered by Republicans in this week's elections. This engagement also raises the level of the latest round of indirect talks to the highest levels within the US administration.
American officials and regional sources told the site that US President Donald Trump is ready, at the present time, to give diplomatic efforts a chance to move forward, and wants to know whether it is possible to reach any type of agreement.
Almost daily communications
As part of these efforts, sources with direct knowledge of the talks revealed to Axios that Vance is in almost daily contact with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators, to discuss negotiations with Iran. US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's advisor and son-in-law, are also participating in these efforts.
The sources added that Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators discussed the possibility of holding a technical meeting at the expert level between the United States and Iran in the coming days, but this meeting has not yet been held.
This move comes in the context of a role that Vance previously played in the Iranian file. He was one of the most skeptical voices about the war within Trump's inner circle before it broke out at the end of February, and instead called for a diplomatic solution.
In this context, Vance led the American negotiating team at the April summit on Iran, held in Islamabad, and also personally participated in the talks that led to the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran in June. Then he led the American delegation in a round of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland, which ended with an Iranian pledge to invite UN inspectors to visit its nuclear facilities. However, this path did not last long; The Iranian Revolutionary Guard resumed its attacks on ships shortly thereafter, leading to the collapse of the memorandum of understanding.
Slow progress in mediation
One of the most important diplomatic moves was the letter that Vance sent, two weeks ago, to the Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, in which he proposed resuming direct negotiations. According to the website, Iranian officials said that Vance's message contributed to creating positive momentum towards resuming negotiations.
Despite this momentum, mediation efforts still face challenges. According to Axios, sources participating in it indicated that the talks had made progress, but at a very slow pace.
In an indication of the continuation of diplomatic efforts, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman bin Jassim Al Thani said, “Over the past two weeks, we have worked with colleagues in the American administration who have a real intention to find a way to contain the situation and reduce the escalation. Thanks to them, and thanks to the wise voices in Tehran, we were able to prevent the situation from getting out of control.”
He added that talks with the Trump administration continued after the midterm elections, although not at the same pace as in the days before them, “because they have other issues.”
In the same context, the Qatari Prime Minister confirmed on Saturday that the mediators of the State of Qatar are working in the meantime to prevent a new wave of escalation in the region, warning that the region cannot tolerate further escalation. This came in a speech he delivered before the Oxford Union in Britain.
"Iron Gate"
In parallel with the diplomatic track, Washington continues its moves aimed at increasing pressure on Tehran. After months of imposing an ongoing naval blockade on Iran, the US military decided to form a task force to reinforce Washington's efforts to restrict Tehran's transfer of advanced weapons systems and other sanctioned materials across its land borders and the Caspian Sea.
In this context, the US Central Command (Centcom) announced the formation of a task force called “Iron Gate,” to be based in Tampa, Florida, and to coordinate its work with other government agencies. Besides weapons transfers, the task force will also focus on dual-use items and illicit sources of income.
General Brad Cooper, commander of Central Command, said in a statement: “Enhancing Central Command’s cooperation with partners across US agencies will further limit Iran’s ability to finance terrorism, rebuild weapons factories, and rebuild its military capabilities.”
In assessing the results of these pressures, US Central Command said that the naval blockade it imposed prevented Iran from exporting more than $25 billion worth of crude oil.
Iranian Army: We have become stronger
On the other hand, Tehran asserts that it did not emerge from the confrontation weak. The Iranian army confirmed that it has become “stronger” and more prepared than it was when the United States and Israel began the war against Iran in February, according to what local media reported on Saturday.
The Iranian IRNA news agency quoted the army spokesman, Mohammad Akrami Nia, as saying that the Iranian forces “are on high alert, and are stronger than they were at the beginning of the war, thanks to their experience in direct confrontation with America and the Zionist entity,” adding that they have “gained greater motivation, commitment, and self-confidence.”
Political pressure is increasing on US President Donald Trump to end the war with Iran, with the transfer of control of Congress to the Democrats imminent, and mounting movements within the party to stop funding military operations. While Qatari mediation continues to contain tension and build confidence between Washington and Tehran, new American strikes raise questions about Trump's ability to resume a broad military campaign, in light of the shrinking margin for political maneuvering.
But the biggest challenge facing Trump is not limited to military and diplomatic calculations, but rather extends to the American interior, where the resounding loss of the Republicans in the midterm elections changed the political equation surrounding the war.
After Trump lost the safety net provided to him by the Republican majority in Congress, the Democrats' movements began to take a more serious nature to end the military operations, which do not enjoy the support of a large segment of Americans.
Opportunities are diminishing
NBC reported, citing unnamed sources, that officials in the US administration and the Pentagon informed Trump that the chances of launching a new military campaign against Iran are diminishing, and that he must make a decision within the next eight weeks, before the new Congress, which is controlled by Democrats, begins to exercise its duties, if he wishes to resume military operations.
This deadline places the American administration before complex political and military calculations. Republicans still control both chambers of Congress until the new members are sworn in in January, but the transition of the majority after that may limit the president's ability to secure political and financial support for any new escalation.
Democrats brandish funding weapons
In this context, Democratic legislators, especially from the progressive movement, began moving to cut off funding for the war, and even pressured to link federal government funding to restrictions that prevent the use of funds to continue military operations.
The Washington Sun newspaper highlighted the role led by Senator Chris Van Hollen and Representative Ro Khanna in this direction, likening their movements to the efforts made by Congress to end the Vietnam War in 1973.
The proposed strategy is not limited to deleting funding allocated for war from current legislation, but rather goes beyond that to include conditions that prevent the use of allocated funds in carrying out military operations. According to the Truth Out news website, this path may be more effective than settling for decisions related to war powers, which the Trump administration may ignore.
Analysts believe that budget authority represents one of the most powerful tools available to lawmakers to pressure the president and end the war, especially since Democrats will enjoy a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives with the start of the new session of Congress.
Van Hollen said: “I do not intend to vote for anything that provides any funding to fuel the war in Iran... If the president wants to tell the people that he is ready to shut down the United States government in order to wage an illegal and senseless war in Iran, that will be his choice,” according to what the German news agency reported.
This approach was supported by a number of Democratic legislators, including Representative Adam Smith, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, and Representative Rosa DeLauro, a member of the House Appropriations Committee, in addition to the new Senator Abdel Rahman Al-Sayyed.
The financing expiration date is approaching
These moves gain additional importance as the end of federal government funding approaches on December 11, which allows Democrats to use budget negotiations to put pressure on the US administration.
At the same time, the current Congress must consider the draft budget bill for the Ministry of Defense for next year, previous versions of which included allocating about $70 billion for the war against Iran.
Thus, Trump may find himself facing a difficult political equation, which is choosing between making concessions regarding the continuation of the war or facing the possibility of faltering funding for the federal government, if Democrats insist on linking approval of the budget to stopping funding for military operations.
This initiative constitutes an early test for the leadership of the Democratic Party, represented by Representative Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Chuck Schumer, who are seeking to maintain their leadership positions with the start of the new session of Congress.
Schumer and Jeffries face a test of their previous positions
The day after the midterm elections, Schumer pledged to work to end the war, relying on Congress’ constitutional powers to control spending. He said: “The Founding Fathers had budgetary authority as one way to deter any president who would wage war without the consent of the American people.” But the position of Schumer and Jeffries faces a political test, given their previous support for Israel and their positions on the war against Iran.
Last June, Schumer criticized Trump's signing of an agreement with Iran to end the war, describing it as "the art of surrender." Jeffries also refused, a few days after the outbreak of the US-Israeli war, to rule out voting in favor of any possible request from the Trump administration to Congress to allocate additional funding for combat operations.
Hence, the Democrats’ move from supporting some aspects of US policy towards Iran to demanding a halt to funding the war puts the party’s leadership before a test regarding the extent of their ability to unify positions within the party and turn the election results into actual pressure on the White House.
Crucial weeks for Trump
Thus, the results of the midterm elections seem to have reshuffled Trump's cards regarding Iran, after he acknowledged that the war was one of the reasons for the Republicans' loss, only to find himself with more limited options, amid reports of differing positions within his administration regarding how to deal with the issue.
While observers await the decision he will take in the coming weeks, fears arise that the new political restrictions will push him to accelerate his military options before control of Congress is transferred to the Democrats, instead of retreating from escalation.
These fears increase in light of the potential economic repercussions of any return to confrontation, especially on the energy markets, which have witnessed some decline driven by hopes that the war will not be renewed. The resumption of military operations would put pressure on oil and energy prices and increase uncertainty in the global economy.
Between regional mediation efforts, democratic pressures to stop funding, and the continuation of military options on the table, the coming weeks appear decisive in determining the course of American policy towards Iran, at a time when Trump’s ability to politically maneuver is no longer what it was before the elections.
