The Kurdistan Workers' Party announced that it had withdrawn its militants from Turkish territory and nearby areas, as part of its efforts to accelerate the peace process.
The “party” said that it had withdrawn, a few days ago, all of its militants “present within Turkish territory and areas close to the border, which did not pose any risk of a conflict,” considering that it had “thus implemented all steps related to ending the armed struggle and moving to democratic political action” within the framework of the “peace process.” The party stated that it also evacuated 4 tunnels and military sites in Matina, west of Zab (northern Iraq), in the same period, despite its distance from the border, so that the Turkish state would not consider them a threat.
The co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Turkish Peoples' Democracy and Equality Party, Tuncer Bakirhan, expected that the complete end of disarmament would be announced on November 27, based on field readings and information his party received from northern Iraq. Bakirhan said, in a television interview, that the “peace process” is gradually approaching completion, stressing that there is real confidence in it compared to the process that was conducted between 2013 and 2015.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks on Thursday with his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, ahead of a regional summit in Turkmenistan, and reiterated to him Moscow's readiness to help settle the war in the Middle East, according to Russian news agencies.
Putin said: “We are ready to do everything in our power to contribute to resolving this situation,” adding that Iran is making “real efforts to end the conflict” that broke out with American-Israeli strikes on it on February 28.
This comes amid continuing regional efforts to advance dialogue between Washington and Tehran and reduce the escalation, at a time when Iran has hardened its tone towards the United States and Israel, threatening to respond to any new attack, while at the same time maintaining its readiness to negotiate its nuclear program while affirming that it will not give up its rights “under any circumstances.”
The United States has warned its citizens in Ethiopia of possible attacks, amid an armed conflict between the federal government and the Tigray Liberation Front, which Addis Ababa claims is receiving support from neighboring Eritrea, despite Asmara’s denials.
This warning means that the level and expansion of risks still exist and raise concerns, and open up several scenarios, most notably an internal Ethiopian war of attrition, an Ethiopian-Eritrean clash, or containment of the escalation through international mediation, according to estimates by an Ethiopian expert in African affairs.
Battles broke out between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and federal forces on September 23, raising fears of a return to the devastating civil war that the country witnessed between 2020 and 2022, and of the expansion of the scope of the conflict regionally.
The battles raise fears of the outbreak of a broader war, especially if the Tigray Liberation Front fighters withdraw across the border into Eritrea, which is accused of supporting them in this round of the conflict.
Amid these facts, the US Embassy in Ethiopia issued a security warning, on Wednesday, to its citizens about “the possibility of long-range attacks targeting Ethiopian military installations on several occasions during the month of October,” calling on them not to travel to the regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar.
The Ethiopian researcher in African affairs, Musa Shehu, believes that “American warnings of possible attacks inside Ethiopia cannot be read in isolation from the military escalation in Tigray and the accelerating deterioration of relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara.”
He expressed his belief that “these warnings do not necessarily mean an attack is imminent, but they reflect the high level of risks and the widening scope of potential threats, and increase widespread concern about the coming period.”
Ethiopian drones launched several raids targeting Eritrean forces who had arrived in a city in the northern Tigray region, according to media reports, Thursday, citing the “Akelid” organization concerned with monitoring conflicts and eyewitnesses.
Relations have deteriorated sharply recently between the two neighboring countries, which fought a border war between 1998 and 2000. With Ethiopian accusations against Eritrea of supporting rebels in the Tigray region in the north of the country, the two neighbors severed their diplomatic relations last week.
Ethiopian Minister of Government Communications Enatalem Melesi said on Wednesday: “All foreign military forces operating within our sovereign territory must withdraw immediately.” In particular, Eritrean forces operating in Tigray must leave Ethiopian territory without delay.
Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia against the Tigray People's Liberation Front during the civil war that lasted from 2020 to 2022, but relations quickly deteriorated with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of supporting the Front, against the backdrop of fears in Eritrea that Ethiopia was planning to invade its territory to obtain direct access to the Red Sea.
Researcher Shekhu says: “Field developments related to the presence of Eritrean forces inside northern Ethiopia indicate that the crisis may go beyond the boundaries of the internal conflict, to acquire a direct military dimension between two countries, despite the Eritrean denial of these reports.”
On Wednesday, an official Eritrean source denied the presence of his country's forces in the Tigray region, but did not rule out a clash with Ethiopia if it touched his country's borders. The source, who preferred to remain anonymous, said: “There are no Eritrean forces in Tigray, but friction and clashes are possible. If the Eritrean borders are violated, this is normal.”
Despite this denial, Shehu believes that the region has three scenarios ahead: “containing the escalation through diplomatic pressure, continuing a war of attrition in Tigray, or sliding into an open Ethiopian-Eritrean confrontation.”
Regionally, the repercussions may extend to Sudan, Afar, and Amhara, and increase tensions related to Red Sea security and competition for influence.
In addition to Eritrea, relations between Ethiopia and Sudan are witnessing tension against the backdrop of Khartoum’s accusation that Addis Ababa supports armed militias against the army, and Ethiopia’s accusation of Sudanese support for the “Tigray Liberation Front” and an armed coalition launched last month to overthrow Abiy Ahmed’s government.
In light of these complications, Sheikho believes that “the greatest danger is not the multiple crises alone, but rather the possibility of them overlapping and turning into a regional conflict that is difficult to contain.”
