[US midterm elections] What is the direction of the war between Iran and Ukraine?

With his crushing defeat in the U.S. midterm elections, President Donald Trump's remaining term has entered a new phase.

Among the major domestic and international issues he must resolve, the direction of the Iran war is by far the most global concern. This is because not only did it determine the outcome of this election, but it is also the cause of the energy supply chain instability experienced around the world.

After the election, two opposing forces are expected to influence the direction of these two wars.

The economic costs of war will put pressure on President Trump to find a way out, but his political reluctance to admit defeat may strengthen his will to create new victories overseas.

In this election, the Iran war went beyond a diplomatic and security issue and became a cost of living issue.

CNN quoted an expert on the 4th and explained, "If there had been no war in Iran, the midterm elections would have looked very different." As instability in the Strait of Hormuz spreads to fuel, logistics, and fertilizer prices, the bill for war has reached American households.

President Trump also did not completely deny this. In an interview with the American media, he acknowledged that "Iran was partly responsible" for the election defeat, but insisted on the legitimacy of the war with Iran.

Acknowledging political losses and withdrawing the decision to go to war are two different things.

The most realistic pressure that the Democratic Party can exert is budget and oversight authority. Additional military action can be controlled by weighing the costs of war, bringing security officials to hearings, and delaying ratification.

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Stade Energy, predicted in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), "If the Democratic Party, which has become the majority party, reviews the war budget and approval, institutional pressure to pursue the Strait of Hormuz agreement rather than additional airstrikes will increase."

However, the Democratic Party will take the lead in exercising the legislative authority of the new Congress starting in January of next year. This means that President Trump can make military decisions over the next two months. Even after the new Congress is inaugurated, the choice to cut off funding for U.S. troops deployed overseas carries a heavy political burden. This is why the Democratic Party’s victory cannot be immediately interpreted as an ‘order to prohibit expansion of the war.’

Some speculate that he, who refuses to be seen as a loser, may be trying to restore his image as a strong president abroad. Nadim Koteich, a current affairs commentator in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told the BBC: "It will be difficult for Trump to accept the assessment that he was defeated by both American voters and Iran." This means that rather than leading to military restraint, election defeat may serve as an incentive for action.

Israel's domestic politics are also a variable. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces a growing risk of losing power in last month's general election, may use the time before forming a coalition government to further demand President Trump resume the war. If the war in Iran resumes on a large scale, the coalition composition situation may change.

With time running out, the political need for the two leaders to use a strong attack has increased.

The Ukraine war, which he promised could be ended within 24 hours if he became president, is also an issue that has attracted international attention.

A Democratic victory appears to be good news for Ukraine. The Washington Post (WP) raised the possibility that the Democratic Congress could push for the resumption of direct aid to Ukraine. If Congress discusses the support budget and sanctions legislation again, the Ukrainian government's political channels other than the White House will be strengthened.

However, there is a difference between the U.S. Congress approving a budget and actually delivering weapons. Dmytro Sherenkhovsky, a political scientist at the Ukrainian Catholic University, told the WSJ that "significant decision-making authority regarding the administration of military aid and enforcement of sanctions remains with the executive branch." Even if the Democratic Party tries to expand support, it is difficult to completely change policy without the cooperation of the White House, so coordination between Congress and the White House is necessary for changes in Congress to have battlefield effects.

President Trump may interpret the election results not as pressure to change his friendly attitude toward Russia, but as a demand to reduce the burden of living expenses on Americans. The BBC raised the possibility that he would extend or expand sanctions eased for the purchase of Russian diesel. As the Iran war raises energy prices, there may be an incentive to expand the supply of Russian energy.

This point is the point where the two wars meet. This is because policies aimed at mitigating the economic shock from Iran could weaken sanctions pressure on Russia, and vice versa.

The BBC also predicted that President Trump, hurt by his election defeat, may demand stronger territorial concessions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in order to secure diplomatic results.

The direction of the two wars depends on whether President Trump accepts the election defeat as a signal to revise his policies or as an impetus to achieve a greater victory overseas.