[US midterm elections] Will a tsunami hit US-Israel relations?

With the Democratic Party's landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections, there is an analysis that there will be major changes in the previously strong relationship between the U.S. and Israel.

The British daily Guardian diagnosed on the 4th (local time) that the results of this midterm election are not only a rejection of President Donald Trump's political style, but also a rebuke of his policy toward Israel.

The Guardian pointed out that even President Trump appears to have recognized that relations with Israel have become a political burden.

Previously, on the morning of election day, President Trump suggested that the military aid that has been provided to Israel in the amount of about $4 billion annually could be cut off at the end of the year and replaced with arms sales. The Guardian's interpretation is that although there is not much actual change in that funding continues in effect and only route tracking becomes more difficult, it reflects the perception that support for Israel has plummeted due to the war in the Gaza Strip.

In the election, candidates who openly supported Palestine defeated pro-Israel candidates in many places.

In January next year, a military doctor who participated in medical support activities in the Gaza Strip, a lawyer who was fired from a law firm after posting a blog criticizing Israel's war, a Jewish lawmaker who was detained by the Israeli military while helping Palestinians harvest olives in the West Bank, and a local activist who participated in a pro-Palestinian student sit-in will be inducted into the U.S. House of Representatives.

Even the support of the American-Israel Public Policy Committee (AIPAC), a lobbying group that poured a lot of money into winning pro-Israel candidates, was not enough.

In particular, in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat), who has clearly supported Palestine, was elected, creating the first Muslim federal senator in history. The Guardian also noted that exit polls showed that he received majority support from Jewish voters.

It is analyzed that this election was also a rejection of the war with Iran. Foreign policy rarely determines U.S. elections, but this time, the Guardian pointed out that the aftermath of war directly affected the daily lives of Americans.

“Every time Americans go to a gas station or grocery store, they realize that the war on Iran has failed,” said Youssef Munayer of the Arab Center in Washington, D.C. “At the center of that story is Israel.”

The Guardian predicted that the new parliament could push for a ban on arms exports to Israel and sanctions on violent Jewish settlers.

However, President Trump can still exercise his veto power.

The Guardian pointed out that the Democratic Party does not speak with a single voice on Israel and Palestine issues or against foreign wars.

There are also predictions that Jewish voters will leave in large numbers due to the Democratic Party's change in line on the Israel issue.

According to J Street, a progressive Jewish organization, 72% of Jewish voters voted for the Democratic Party in this election.

However, the Guardian reported that the Republican Party's Jewish vote share also increased compared to the 2024 presidential election.