Russia and Belarus raise alert for military exercises Experts: NATO prevents atypical hybrid warfare

Lithuanian soldiers take part in military training. As Russia and Belarus held military exercises near the Suwalki Corridor, the security situation in the Baltic Sea region has attracted renewed attention. (Photo: Lithuanian Ministry of Defense)

As Russia and Belarus are active on the eastern flank of NATO, Europe's alert for the expansion of the war has increased, and the United Kingdom has even asked people to prepare canned food and drinking water. Brett H. McGurk, CNN's global affairs analyst, wrote that if Russia wants to push the battlefield beyond Ukraine, it may not necessarily launch a full-scale war first, but may start with actions such as sabotage, cyberattacks, arson or drone attacks.

"CNN" published McGurk's analysis article on the 21st and pointed out that Belarus held military exercises near the "Suwałki Gap" (Suwałki Gap), making this land channel connecting the three Baltic countries and other NATO members once again become the focus. The corridor is about 105 kilometers long and has long been regarded as an important vulnerability on NATO's eastern flank.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia may launch drone or missile attacks on NATO countries, or even disguise them as accidents; French President Emmanuel Macron also convened political leaders to receive confidential intelligence briefings and announced to strengthen the protection of important infrastructure. The UK has asked people to prepare canned food and drinking water.

If Russia wants to test NATO, it may start with actions that are “not like war”

McGurk pointed out that Russia has been conducting hybrid warfare through cyber attacks, vandalism, arson and other methods for many years, and more recently, drones and other methods have been used. Such actions may not immediately trigger NATO's Article 5 collective defense mechanism, but they may gradually test the bottom line that NATO countries are willing to endure.

The Suwalki corridor is therefore particularly sensitive. If Russian or Belarusian forces take limited cross-border operations, whether NATO can activate collective defense will become a major test. However, CNN pointed out that European officials do not believe that Russia is about to directly attack NATO, but have begun to prepare for broader conflict risks.

This preparation extends from the military to civilians as well. The UK requires people to prepare basic supplies, while Germany strengthens the medical system's ability to face possible conflicts. NATO also continues to update its "national resilience" requirements, covering basic services such as energy, medical care, food, drinking water and communications.

CNN believes that the real problem Europe is currently facing is not just whether Russia will go to war directly, but how to respond to a series of attacks that are difficult to immediately judge as wars in addition to traditional wars, and whether NATO can maintain credible deterrence once these actions continue to increase.

The Suwalki Corridor, located between Poland and Lithuania, is an important land route connecting the three Baltic countries to other NATO member states. (Drawing by this newspaper)