The 2026 Taipei mayoral election has entered the final stage. Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang and Kuomintang mayor Chiang Wanan, who is seeking re-election, continue to compete. Recently, multiple polls have shown different results, attracting attention from all walks of life. In this regard, the Facebook fan page "Voice and Politics" published an analysis that the Kuomintang should not directly regard voters who did not express their opinions in the polls as supporters who have not yet returned to the party, because the political identity of some voters may have changed. People who voted for the Kuomintang in the past do not mean that they will still support Jiang Wanan this time. They even bluntly stated that "the Kuomintang thought they were just silent, but did not realize that some people may have decided not to look back."
"Voice Aware of Politics" pointed out that Zhang Yaping, the chairman of the Kuomintang Disciplinary Committee, recently talked about polls and the "spiral of silence" phenomenon, reminding the blue camp that all polling gaps cannot be attributed to the spiral of silence, and emphasized that voters who cannot be captured by polls do not mean that they do not exist. Fanzhuan believes that this statement makes sense, but people who have not been interviewed or who refuse to express their opinions may support Jiang Wanan or Shen Boyang, or even have no interest in either of them. If these people are directly regarded as potential votes for the Kuomintang, it may ignore the possibility that voters' attitudes have changed.
"Voice Depends on Politics" quoted the October 28 "Lianhe Daily" poll that pointed out that Shen Boyang's support was 45% and Jiang Wanan's 41%. Among the respondents who claimed to have voted for Jiang Wanan in 2022, 18% said they supported Shen Boyang this time; 55% of the respondents who supported Huang Shanshan in the previous term also turned to Shen Boyang. However, these figures come from respondents’ recollections of past voting behavior and cannot be directly equated to the actual proportion of vote transfers. On the other hand, the TVBS post-debate poll showed Jiang Wanan at 46% and Shen Boyang at 42%. The "ETtoday Poll Cloud" survey in early November also showed Jiang Wanan in the lead. This shows that there is still a gap between different surveys, and it cannot be concluded based on this that the election has turned.
Fanzhuan believes that what is noteworthy is not who is leading in a single poll, but whether voters who originally supported Chiang Wanan are willing to compare different candidates again. Traditional local elections rely on party organization and base mobilization. However, voting for a certain party in the past does not necessarily mean continued support in the future. If voters whose political identity is changing are all regarded as silent supporters waiting to push for votes, it may lead to misjudgment of election strategies.
In response to Shen Boyang's recent "ocean current" phenomenon, "Voice and Politics" said that after starting to track the "Shadow Dashboard" in July, it was found that Shen Boyang has gradually stepped out of the stratosphere of his original supporters, and through programs with different audiences such as Wang Weizhong and Zhao Shaokang, he has reached out to people who were originally unfamiliar with him or held different positions. With the increase in active searches, live broadcast viewing and debate discussions, some voters are beginning to re-examine the candidates' municipal governance capabilities. However, the fanzhuan also emphasized that the number of YouTube viewers cannot be directly converted into votes. Whether the Internet popularity can be converted into actual support still needs to be continuously observed.
"Voice Depends on Politics" further mentioned that the form of participation of Shen Boyang's supporters has also changed. In addition to the "Ocean Current" fleet sweeping the streets in October, people made their own streamers, claimed road sections and designed promotional images. Supporters also planned to launch a charter boat support in Guandu on November 15, hoping to respond to the land-based vehicle sweeps through the fleet on the Tamsui River. Fanzhuan believes that these activities reflect the shift of some supporters from passive participation to independent organization. However, the scale of the activities, the sources of participation and the final mobilization effect still need to be tested in practice, and the election results cannot be judged based on momentum alone.
Regarding Jiang Wanan's election situation, "Voice Depends on Politics" analyzed that the current mayor still has advantages such as administrative resources, local organizations and existing supporters, but voters' evaluation standards for municipal administration may be changing. Issues including urban renewal, development of Shezi Island, food safety and child protection may become the basis for testing the performance of governance. As for Shen Boyang, he must prove that in addition to his online reputation, he can also propose specific municipal plans to win over voters who originally did not support him, and turn their enthusiasm for participation into voting actions.
"Voice Aware of Politics" finally pointed out that what is really worthy of attention in the Taipei mayoral election on November 28 is not only who wins or loses among the candidates, but also whether voters begin to evaluate politicians by new standards. Fanzhuo believes that if the KMT continues to interpret the change in support as the failure of polls to capture silent voters, it may ignore the signals that some past supporters have changed their stance, and bluntly said: "The KMT thought they were just silent, but failed to realize that some people may have decided not to look back."
