Kushner, Weikov visit Moscow and Kyiv
U.S. President Trump’s special envoys Kushner and Weikov visited Russia and Ukraine respectively on the 5th and 6th to re-launch the Ukraine-Russia peace process that was interrupted by the conflict between the United States and Iran in February. Trump said the two would go with "a plan to end the war."
After the two arrived in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian army to suspend military attacks on Kiev for 72 hours starting from midnight. The Kremlin confirmed that Putin would meet with the two men later.
Putin orders 72-hour ceasefire
The Washington Post reported on the 4th that US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Ratcliffe paid a secret visit to Moscow at the end of last month. At that time, he warned Russia that Moscow's situation may further deteriorate in six months to a year and urged Russia to return to the negotiating table. An official pointed out to the China Post that the United States is trying to make the Russians understand that "Ukraine will not give up on Donbass and there is no benefit in continuing to attack."
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However, Ratcliffe's trip failed to persuade Putin to cease the war, but instead strengthened his determination to win. According to Uzbek intelligence, the Kremlin is brewing plans to escalate the conflict. Palisha, deputy chief of staff to the President of Uzbekistan, mentioned that Putin ordered the Russian army to prepare for several military operation scenarios, with the goal of launching an offensive in northern Uzbekistan, with Kiev and Chernigov considered key areas.
The Post quoted Moscow business leaders as saying that the Kremlin believes that continuing the war for several months will not pose a problem to Russia and its economy, but it will be a huge dilemma for Ukraine.
Russia aims to capture Donetsk
Reuters also pointed out on the 5th that a source close to the Kremlin revealed that Putin "cannot reach an agreement on the frontline issue before completing the seizure of the remaining territory in the Donetsk region." Based on the commander's report, Putin is confident that this goal will be achieved by the end of the year.
Kushner and Weikov have communicated with Ukraine and Russia separately in the past few months, but with little success. The U.S. proposed holding a trilateral summit meeting between the U.S., Ukraine and Russia to seek a peaceful breakthrough, which was also rejected by Putin.
Zelensky also suspended the crackdown
In order to ensure the safety of the US envoy, Ukrainian President Zelensky agreed to suspend the attack on Russia and asked Russia to follow suit. Zelensky hopes that the dialogue with the two envoys will have substantive results. "We will review the proposals brought by the United States and the response from Moscow."
On the eve of the U.S. envoy's visit, a Russian drone attacked the headquarters of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in Kiev on the 4th, injuring 12 people. Zelensky pointed out that the drone deliberately targeted the office of the head of the Security Service. Acting Director Pokrader has given him a list of potential targets in response to Russian attacks. Uzbek Foreign Minister Sibyha denounced the attack as a "major escalation" of the situation, which completely revealed Moscow's refusal to diplomatic solution.
The war is fruitless and Russia’s finances are heavy
The Russian army's advance in the Ukrainian battlefield has almost stalled, and financial pressure is heavy. As of the end of July, the deficit had reached US$74.4 billion, accounting for approximately 2.2% of gross domestic product (GDP). 8%, far higher than the government’s forecast for the whole year. Six percent deficit. However, Putin instead stepped up air strikes against Ukraine, using missiles and jet drones to target targets such as water and electricity infrastructure, supermarkets, and granaries. He believed that violent bombing operations could force Kiev, which lacks the Patriot air defense system, to surrender in the winter and agree to Russia's key territorial claims.
