In response to the rush to build MRT in various counties and cities across Taiwan, former Executive Yuan Councilor Zhang Jingsen called today (7th) to "put on the brakes" on MRT construction in a timely manner. He pointed out that the current MRT construction cost per kilometer often soars to over 5, 6 billion or even 10 billion yuan, but the capital efficiency of some newly planned routes is 20 times worse. If it is blocked due to political commitment, it may become a bottomless financial pit in the next few decades. Therefore, he advocates the establishment of a "secondary physical examination" mechanism to strictly control the main project before winning the bid.
Zhang Jingsen posted on Facebook today that he is not against building MRT, but advocates "braking instead of stopping" and slowing down to check the condition of the vehicle. Of course the MRT should be built, and it should even be accelerated. For example, corridors such as the Taipei Wanda Line, the Circular Line, or the Taichung Blue Line are densely populated, have strong transportation demand, and have clear overall road network benefits. There is no reason to call for delays just to "save budgets." What really needs to be put on the brakes are those high-cost, low-volume rapid transit projects.
Zhang Jingsen continued that Taiwan’s early promotion of MRT basically started from the best transportation corridors, with dense population, industrial agglomeration, congested roads, and strong demand for mass transportation. Each kilometer of MRT can serve a very large number of passengers every day. Under such conditions, even if the undergrounding project is expensive, it may still be a reasonable and efficient public investment if it is apportioned to each trip.
However, as the road network extends to peripheral markets, a dangerous crossover curve of "skyrocketing construction costs and sharp decline in service trips" has emerged. Zhang Jingsen emphasized that in recent years, due to labor shortages, rising prices, and soaring land acquisition and engineering costs, the cost per kilometer of many new MRT lines has reached as high as 5 to 6 billion yuan, and the underground sections have even exceeded 10 billion yuan. As a result, a very dangerous cross curve has emerged: the cost per kilometer is getting higher and higher, but fewer and fewer passengers can be served per kilometer. This is the core reason why the brakes must be applied now.
After reviewing emerging MRT projects in various places with quantitative indicators, Zhang Jingsen pointed out that the first phase of the Wanda Line is about "300,000 yuan/day trip" and the "Taichung Blue Line is about 660,000 yuan/day trip". However, some new planned routes have exceeded 1 million yuan or even 6 million yuan. The difference in resource allocation efficiency between the two is as high as dozens of times.
Zhang Jingsen added that the completion of the construction is only the first step, and the MRT does not mean that it will not have to spend money after the ribbon cutting. The real long-term financial burden starts from the day it opens to traffic. Train operation, station personnel, electricity bills, tracks, signals, and mechanical and electrical maintenance all cost money; twenty or thirty years later, there will be large-scale updates of carriages and core equipment. A MRT that is used by 200,000 people a day requires these expenditures, and a MRT that is used by only 10,000 to 20,000 people a day also requires these basic costs.
Zhang Jingsen advocated that the government should establish a "secondary physical examination" system for MRT projects. From planning, approval to actual construction, it often takes many years. The population, industry, project prices, local finance and transportation needs may have changed. We cannot rely on the figures from five or ten years ago to build on the results. Especially before the main project is awarded and contracted, the latest data should be used to recalculate costs and benefits.
Therefore, he suggested setting at least five warning signs: First, the total project cost should increase by more than 20% compared with the original approval. If a project originally worth NT$100 billion later becomes NT$130 billion, the original cost-benefit assessment has obviously been distorted and should be recalculated. Second, the estimated daily transport volume per kilometer is less than 5,000 trips. MRT is a high fixed cost means of transportation. If demand is too thin, other lower-cost shipping methods should be carefully compared.
Third, the construction capital corresponding to each estimated daily trip exceeds 1 million yuan. Breaking through this threshold should turn on the yellow light and re-examine whether the investment of such a huge amount of capital is reasonable. Fourth, excessive transportation volume is based on "a future that has not happened yet." For example, assume that the population will surge in the future, all industrial parks will be settled, land development will be completed, and tourists will increase significantly. These can be included in the situation analysis, but "wish" cannot be directly registered as "passenger".
Fifth, the ballot box and reasonable non-business income cannot cover basic operating costs for a long time. If after it is opened to traffic, it will still have to rely on huge public budget subsidies every year to maintain it, then the financial responsibilities for the next few decades should be clearly calculated before starting construction. He suggested that as long as two items are touched, the yellow light should be turned on for re-evaluation, and if more than three items are touched, the red light should be turned on to suspend promotion.
Zhang Jingsen emphasized that MRT is a means of transportation, not a medal for urban modernization. In the face of future competition between autonomous driving and AI shared transportation, we should not blindly invest hundreds of billions of dollars in low-efficiency routes. He called on the government to take a comprehensive inventory of projects that have not yet been excavated and whose bids have not been determined, and to replace them with light rail, BRT or an optimized bus network. They should rush and brake when they should. "A truly responsible public construction policy should know when to step on the accelerator and when to step on the brake. Braking is not to stop the car, but to prevent the car from driving into a cliff."
