From November 10th to 11th local time, trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine will be held in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates. Currently, both Russian and Ukrainian delegations have arrived in Abu Dhabi. It is reported that this is the first time in nine months that the three parties have restarted face-to-face consultations since the negotiations stalled in February this year. According to information disclosed before the tripartite meeting between Russia, the United States and Ukraine, the talks focused on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian action, and follow-up steps to achieve peace. Driven by the mediation of many parties, the Ukraine issue has ushered in a new diplomatic window. All parties have released intensive signals before the meeting, and differences in demands and positions have gradually emerged.
Talks in Abu Dhabi coming soon
All parties set out their demands for negotiation
Russia emphasizes that the core of negotiations is security issues
On November 9, local time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the main topic of the Abu Dhabi negotiations was security issues. The negotiations will focus on the security of Russia, Ukraine and regional security. Russia welcomes the US position on security issues. He also proposed that the parties will also discuss a series of principles that are expected to be adopted in the final stage of a comprehensive settlement of the Ukrainian issue.
Ukraine focuses on humanitarian issues and seeks to coordinate its stance with European partners
On the 9th local time, the Ukrainian delegation set off for Abu Dhabi to prepare for talks. Budanov, director of the Uzbek President's Office, said that Uzbekistan plans to make humanitarian issues the focus of the talks in Abu Dhabi and focus on promoting prisoner exchanges.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the 9th that Ukraine would participate in the talks in a constructive manner. Umerov, head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation and director of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, said on the same day that Ukraine’s goal is to achieve long-term, sustainable peace and security, and to create practical opportunities for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. He also emphasized that Europe's participation in the diplomatic process is of great significance, and Ukraine needs to coordinate closely and unify its position with its major European partners.
US says Russia-Ukraine territorial consultations show flexibility and will discuss security guarantees for Ukraine
On November 9, local time, a U.S. official revealed that Russia and Ukraine have shown some flexibility on territorial concessions in private, but the territorial issue cannot be resolved until it is clear how to build a post-war security architecture. The United States will try to induce Russia to agree to a multilateral framework.
The official said security guarantees for Ukraine would be a major topic in the discussions, including the possibility of providing Kyiv with defense guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5. The official also said that the United States maintains daily communication with Russia and Ukraine, and Russia is showing positive signs of seeking to end the conflict.
Will Europe participate in the talks?
There are differences in the positions of all parties
Europe strives to "enter", but it is still unclear whether it can enter the core negotiations
Umerov, head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, said on the 9th that the Ukrainian delegation will "do everything possible to ensure that European partners participate in the diplomatic process." Ukrainian Foreign Minister Serbiga previously stated that Europe must be part of the peace process, both before and after the talks in Abu Dhabi.
A reporter from the main station learned on November 9 that the European Group of Three (E3) composed of France, Germany and Britain will send officials at the national security adviser level to participate in related activities in Abu Dhabi. European Commission President von der Leyen said that the EU will attend relevant negotiations together with its partners. A spokesman for the European Council confirmed on the same day that the European Council and the European Commission will send a joint delegation of senior officials to Abu Dhabi.
But whether European representatives can enter the formal negotiating room is still uncertain. An EU official revealed that the E3 national security advisers may be active in or near the negotiation venue, but will not directly participate in the trilateral negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine.
Russia makes it clear that Europe will not participate in the trilateral talks
The US said it would arrange for Europe to join after three-party consultations
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the 9th that what was held in Abu Dhabi was a tripartite meeting between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine mediated by the United States. He emphasized that European countries have their own channels to communicate with the United States and Ukraine, and the negotiations held in Abu Dhabi will be trilateral.
U.S. officials revealed that European partners will participate in the negotiations on the Ukraine issue in Abu Dhabi. The U.S. proposal is to include the European side in the discussion after the three-party talks.
Russia and Ukraine each have their own considerations
Treat this round of talks with caution
Regarding the trilateral talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine, what are Russia’s and Ukraine’s expectations for the outcome of the talks?
Russia’s goal is to solve the problem fundamentally and overall
A reporter from the main station observed that Russia’s goal is to solve the problem fundamentally and overall, and focus on resolving the imbalance in the European security system. The relevant demands are not only directed at Ukraine, but also towards NATO countries. Russia regards this meeting as a technical consultation at the expert level, and the topic has shifted from the Ukrainian issue to the security issue. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov joined the negotiating team, highlighting Russia's focus on the future European security system. Russian experts have cautious expectations for the outcome of the negotiations. They believe that although the United States has the motivation to promote positive results in the negotiations, its influence is limited, and the direction and results of the negotiations mainly depend on the political will of Russia and Ukraine.
Uzbekistan views prospects of talks cautiously
A reporter from the main station observed that Ukraine did not have high expectations for the talks in Abu Dhabi, and the Ukrainian negotiator frankly said that he did not expect a breakthrough in this round of talks. Zelenskiy listed Ukraine's priority issues, including stopping attacks on key infrastructure such as energy, resuming Black Sea shipping and food transportation, and accelerating the exchange of prisoners of war and detainees. With the war continuing for nearly four years, Ukraine's domestic willingness to end the war through diplomatic channels is significantly increasing, but at the same time there are concerns that Ukraine may be forced to unilaterally compromise as the United States pushes for an agreement as soon as possible.
