Putin intensifies efforts to undermine Ukraine's economy as a new round of peace talks approaches
Analysts: Missiles and drones target energy infrastructure at a more violent rate than previous years, with attacks expected to escalate during the current winter.
Quick Look
Russia is intensifying its air attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure, at a more violent pace than in previous years, with the aim of destroying the Ukrainian economy, according to analysts, with attacks expected to escalate during the current winter, amid the United States’ preparation to mediate peace talks next week.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Russia is facing difficulties in achieving field progress in eastern Ukraine, so it has diverted its resources to air warfare, targeting energy infrastructure. An independent UN commission of inquiry concluded that Russia committed war crimes and crimes against humanity by deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, particularly critical energy systems, during the winter of 2025-2026.
While Russia faces difficulties in achieving ground progress east of Ukraine, it is devoting more of its resources to the war in the skies.
Analysts point out that Russian missiles and drones are targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure at a more violent pace and earlier in the year compared to previous years, and the Kremlin has also expanded the scope of its goals with the aim of causing more damage to the Ukrainian economy.
Last week, an independent UN commission of inquiry concluded that Russia had committed war crimes and crimes against humanity by deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, particularly by attacking critical energy systems during the harsh winter of 2025-2026.
Experts believe that the attacks will be more severe during the current winter. As the United States prepares to act as a mediator in a new round of peace talks next week, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to escalate his attacks on Ukraine.
John Love, head of international partnerships at the Center for New Eurasia Strategies, a London-based think tank, said the Russian air campaign was now "clearly aimed at destroying the Ukrainian economy." Loew added in a statement to CNN that he believes that many of Kiev's allies in Europe have not yet realized "how serious the situation is developing in Ukraine," nor the size of the financial burden that may fall on European partners.
“Putin has come to the conclusion that he cannot achieve victory in Donbass by throwing more troops into the battle and trying to advance, especially since the Ukrainians achieved relative success over the summer,” Loew explained.
He continued: "Putin has concluded that the only way to break this stalemate is to destroy the economy, which they are now doing systematically."
For his part, Christian Flass, a researcher specializing in Eastern European affairs at ACCLID, a global conflict monitoring body, said: “We will witness a horrific humanitarian situation this winter, and it will be much earlier than what happened last year.”
The year 2026 witnessed a steady increase in the number of Russian strikes directed against Ukraine. In January 2026, 3,650 Russian strikes were recorded, while in October this number rose to 5,532 strikes.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Russia will continue to escalate its air attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter
Very likely · Within weeks
The United States will hold a new round of peace talks next week
Likely · Within days
Open Questions
- What is the expected response from European partners to the increasing financial burdens?
- Will American mediation succeed in bringing the parties to the negotiating table next week?
- What measures will Ukraine take to protect energy systems during the current winter?
