Soldiers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army participating in a military parade in Beijing. (AP file photo)
First published 10-07 02:57
Update time 10-07 06:10
A latest opinion poll shows that when faced with the "unification issue" with Taiwan, most Chinese people prefer to use pressure and coercion rather than directly using military force. It is worth noting that after US President Trump visited Beijing in May, the proportion of respondents who opposed the use of force increased significantly, climbing from 32% to 40%. If Taiwan officially declares independence, the most preferred countermeasures by respondents is to attack Kinmen and Matsu, as high as 77%.
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Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" reported on the 6th that the "China Pulse" semi-annual poll was jointly conducted by the U.S. non-profit organization "The Carter Center" and Emory University from April 16 to June 26. A total of 2,500 Chinese citizens were sampled. The investigation was conducted between the first summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in May and the second summit in Washington in September.
Nick Zeller, chief researcher at the Carter Center, pointed out that the Chinese people's attitude towards Taiwan is highly consistent with the tone of propaganda in China. Peaceful cross-strait relations are undoubtedly the first choice of the vast majority of people, but if Taiwan declares legal independence, it will trigger a military response.
Polls show that among all the economies surveyed, Chinese respondents have the highest favorable opinion of Taiwan, reaching 61 points out of 100. However, respondents have different opinions on whether to adopt "military reunification". If Taiwan formally declares independence, respondents' preferred countermeasures include attacking Kinmen and the Matsu Islands (77%), imposing a naval blockade (59%), and economic sanctions (56%).
Among those who support non-coercive means, about 82% support expanding cultural exchanges and promoting trade, and about 72% support relaxing local employment and residence policies for Taiwanese people.
After Trump visited China in May, the number of respondents who opposed the use of force against Taiwan increased significantly, climbing from 32% to 40%. Analysts believe that this may reflect Trump's decision to delay a US$14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, as well as the impact of his subsequent transactional remarks such as his blunt statement on the special plane returning to the United States and in interviews that arms sales to Taiwan "are a very good bargaining chip for us."
In terms of their views on the United States, the Chinese people's favorability continues to be at a low level, with the score falling slightly to 32 points (out of 100 points) from the score half a year ago. Nearly three-quarters of the respondents regard the United States as a national security threat, with Taiwan and economic and trade frictions being the most important issues of concern; younger and more educated respondents took a relatively mild stance after the Beijing Summit in May.
Zeller expects that this trend will continue when polls are conducted for the September Washington Summit, the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (APEC) in Shenzhen, and the "G20" (G20) summit in Miami. "Both the United States and China will fall into a state of 'frenemy,' but while confronting, they will continue to seek opportunities for cooperation."
The survey pointed out that although Chinese respondents' confidence in educational exchanges between the two countries has dropped sharply, they still generally call for maintaining contact in areas such as national security and trade, while their calls for cooperation in science and global security are relatively low. Zeller pointed out that the main mentality of the Chinese people towards the United States is: "We don't like you, but we are as powerful as you, so we are willing to cooperate with you."
The latest poll shows that if Taiwan declares independence, the most popular countermeasures preferred by the Chinese people surveyed are attacking Kinmen and Matsu, with 77% of them preferring it. (AFP file photo)
