(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Choi Pyeong-cheon and Ahn Jeong-hoon = Following the Democratic Party of Korea's announcement of its policy to quickly pursue the so-called 'special investigation into prosecution manipulation indictment by the Yoon Seok-yeol government', it also began discussions on impeachment of Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae.
The party has responded cautiously to both issues due to concerns about backlash from public opinion, but as the sense of crisis over the recent decline in the party's approval rating has grown, it is analyzed that they have changed their strategy to rally core supporters, known as 'house rabbits'.
◇ “As soon as possible”… The focus of the special prosecution on fabrication indictment is ‘rapid progress’
First of all, the Democratic Party's goal is to quickly pass the 'Special Prosecution Bill on Manipulated Prosecutions' after the National Assembly audit is completed at the end of this month.
On the 14th, Spokesperson Jo Gye-won reaffirmed the schedule for processing the special prosecution bill after the highest ranking, saying, "It will be promoted quickly after the National Assembly inspection, and the promotion will be done at the party level."
Previously, after a National Assembly investigation led by its own party, the Democratic Party proposed a special prosecutor's bill in April to investigate whether 12 cases, including those related to President Lee Jae-myung, were fabricated and to determine whether the prosecution was maintained.
However, as public opinion deteriorated over the possibility of cancellation of prosecution among the contents of the bill, the Democratic Party postponed processing the bill after saying that it would collect opinions from the public and party members.
Afterwards, on the 18th of last month, President Lee Jae-myung requested the National Assembly to delete the provision on the right to cancellation of indictment contained in the 'Special Prosecutor's Office on Manipulated Indictments Act'.
Accordingly, the Democratic Party believed that the 'detonator' of the controversy over the special prosecution bill was removed by deleting the 'cancellation of indictment' clause, and initially pushed for the bill to be processed early this month ahead of the National Assembly inspection.
However, the schedule was postponed due to the People Power Party's announcement of a filibuster (obstruction of lawful proceedings through unlimited debate) and criticism that it runs counter to the party's policy of "overseeing the people's livelihood."
In a phone call with Yonhap News on the 18th, an official in the National Assembly explained, “The right to cancel prosecution, which the People Power Party is most concerned about, has been resolved by deletion,” and added, “The special prosecution law must be passed as soon as possible.”
◇ Discussions on Cho Hee-dae’s impeachment are formalized… There is also an analysis that says we have to wait and see until it is actually implemented.
The Democratic Party even brought out the card to push for the impeachment of Chief Justice Cho, following the special prosecutor's investigation into the fabricated indictment.
Although the impeachment of Chief Justice Cho has been consistently discussed within the party since the inauguration of the Lee Jae-myung administration, the leadership, considering the backlash from public opinion, has maintained a cautious stance on pursuing impeachment, but has now opened the possibility and entered into discussions.
Regarding the current situation on the 16th, Representative Kim Min-seok said, "You can say that we have started discussing the T letter of impeachment," and added, "Now, we are comprehensively organizing the reasons why 'we must resign.'"
This change in the Democratic Party's tone seems to be due to the judgment that public opinion necessary for impeachment has been created as issues such as Chief Justice Cho's refusal to re-nomine the Supreme Court Justice through this audit of the National Assembly, the long-term absence of the Supreme Court Justice, the suspicion of election interference that arose due to the remand of the Supreme Court right before the presidential election, and the controversy over false reporting of business expenses and inappropriate payment of incentive payments have attracted attention.
Spokesperson Lee Yong-woo said in a briefing at the National Assembly on the 18th, "Chief Justice Cho is at a point where he will no longer be able to perform his duties as the head of the judiciary, and the public judgment has already ended due to the overwhelming grounds for impeachment. There is also a limit to the people's patience waiting for his voluntary resignation."
Spokesperson Lee also met with reporters after the briefing and emphasized, "Chief Justice Cho is attacking the legislative, executive, and judiciary like never before in constitutional history." He added, "The possibility of impeachment or investigation is open due to public sympathy, but there is clearly a trend that goes beyond calls for resignation."
Spokesperson Lee said, "Members of the judiciary should no longer remain silent about Chief Justice Cho's behavior," and added, "Legitimate internal criticism that points out the Chief Justice's mistakes and holds him accountable is the starting point for protecting the independence of the judiciary and restoring public trust."
This can be interpreted as a public opinion campaign demanding active self-purification from internal members of the judiciary.
However, there are still 'cautious opinions' within the party regarding the impeachment of Chief Justice Cho.
Since there are only eight months left in Chief Justice Cho's term, there are concerns that the impeachment push may face a backlash from public opinion, along with criticism that the effectiveness of the impeachment push is low.
A first-term lawmaker from the metropolitan area said in a phone call with Yonhap News that day, "I am not sure if it is illegal enough to be impeached by the Constitutional Court," and "I am worried that if the impeachment bill is passed and his duties are suspended, the problem of delays in the Supreme Court trial will become more serious."
Spokesperson Lee also said, “Impeachment is not a simple issue, so I think it will be thoroughly deliberated, encompassing various opinions within the party and review of the law.”
The leadership in the House of Representatives, which is in charge of the strategy within the House when handling impeachment proposals, is also cautious about impeaching Chief Justice Cho.
An official in the National Assembly explained, “Because we are in the midst of an audit of government affairs, there has been no discussion in the National Assembly yet. It is true that voices for impeachment have grown louder compared to the past, but we are not at the stage of discussing it in detail.”
For this reason, there are observations that, unlike the special prosecution's fabricated indictment, the issue of handling the impeachment indictment against Chief Justice Cho is likely to take more time to ripen. This means that it remains to be seen whether the decision will be made to actually propose an impeachment bill.
◇ Instead of expanding externally, an attempt was made to ‘unify domestic rabbits’… “It will play a role in driving approval ratings.”
Analysis suggests that the background to the Democratic Party's drive to impeach Chief Justice Cho and pursue a special investigation into fabricated indictments is a sense of crisis over the party's recently falling approval rating.
The Democratic Party's approval rating, which rose to the upper 40% range in April, recorded 36% in a Gallup Korea poll (targeted at 1,003 voters) conducted on the 13th to 15th.
While the departure of traditional supporters is cited as the main reason for the decline in approval ratings, the Democratic Party appears to be trying to rally internally through impeachment and special prosecution, which are issues that have great appeal to its strong supporters.
After taking office last August, Representative Kim emphasized expansion to the moderates to build a so-called 'structural majority', but he appears to have judged that it would be difficult to expand externally in a situation where the core support base is shaken.
In relation to this, Rep. Yong-ki Yong-gi, who was nominated by Representative Kim as a member of the Supreme Council, recently announced that a briefing session on fabricated indictments will be held at the National Assembly on the 28th of this month, and said, "I think the special prosecution for fabricated indictments will play a role that can sufficiently drive the approval rating of the support base."
Furthermore, the re-emerging conflict within the party over the Shincheonji issue is also seen as one of the reasons for formalizing discussions on impeachment of Chief Justice Cho.
Representative Kim's explanation is that he is trying to shake off past party problems this time, but the pro-Cheong (pro-government Cheongnae) circles are reacting with suspicion that it is a card drawn to target a specific camp, and the confrontation between the so-called New Lee Jae-myeong and core (traditional) supporters has become stronger again.
In this situation, some in the political circles are interpreting that they are trying to promote internal unity through external enemies by bringing up the card of pushing for the impeachment of Supreme Court Justice Cho, which has been intensively advocated by hardliners within the party.
The public opinion poll cited in the article was conducted through interviews with telephone researchers using randomly selected wireless phone numbers. The sampling error is ±3.1%p at the 95% confidence level, the contact rate is 43.0%, and the response rate is 10.4%.
For more information, refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website.
