KOSPI attempts to rebound thanks to a rebound in semiconductor stocks amid rising U.S. Treasury yields

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Hwang Cheol-hwan = Attention is being paid to whether KOSPI will be able to attempt a rebound on the 30th, despite the burden caused by the high U.S. Treasury yields, thanks to the influx of counter-buying forces and the rebound of U.S. semiconductor stocks.

The previous day, KOSPI closed at 6,870.81, down 18.93 points (0.27%) from the previous day, falling for two consecutive days.

The index, which started at 6,844.41, down 45.33 points (0.66%), turned upward at one point in the morning, but then showed a trend of increasing its decline again.

Foreigners sold net 2.9937 trillion won. Individuals and institutions made net purchases of 1.2447 trillion won and 1.0366 trillion won, respectively.

As of the regular market closing at 3:30 p.m., foreigners have a selling advantage of 2.9033 trillion won, while individuals and institutions have a buying advantage of 1.1433 trillion won and 121.1 billion won.

Due to the net purchases of treasury stocks by Samsung Electronics [005930] and SK Hynix [000660], other corporations, which have recently emerged as major suppliers, made net purchases of KRW 1.6454 trillion.

When the United States rejected Iran's "7-day plan," which included a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices and U.S. Treasury bond yields jumped again, which had a significant impact, pouring cold water on investment sentiment in risky assets.

Foreign media reports that OpenAI, an American artificial intelligence (AI) company, withdrew the launch of its next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) model 'GPT-6.1 Astra' due to safety concerns, also had a negative impact on stock prices in related industries.

However, on the 28th, the first trading day after the Chuseok holiday, the decline appears to have been limited due to the influx of counter-buys due to the perception that the 5.43% and 5.05% plunges of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, respectively, were excessive.

Samsung Electronics closed at 272,500 won, up 0.93% from the previous quarter, even though it was the ex-dividend date when the right to receive dividends in the third quarter disappeared. SK Hynix, which had fallen to 1,736,000 won (-1.81%) during the day, made up most of the loss and closed at 1,765,000 won, down 0.17% from the previous day.

Last night, the New York stock market closed at a low level.

International oil prices plummeted on the news that Saudi Arabia had resumed crude oil exports through the Red Sea, but U.S. Treasury yields, which remain high, weighed on the stock market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26%, and the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index fell 0.17%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.09%.

The interest rate on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, a global interest rate benchmark, soared to 5.293%, the highest level since 2007, during the day, and the 30-year Treasury note also rose to 5.621%, the highest level since 2002.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery ended trading at $89.38 per barrel, down 3.48%, and Brent crude oil futures closed at $102.59, down 2.56%.

The Conference Board, a U.S. economic research group, announced that the U.S. consumer confidence index in September was 81.9 (based on 1985 = 100), down 6.7 points from the previous month (88.6). This is significantly below the consensus (market average forecast) of 89 and is the lowest level since 2014.

The number of job openings according to the August Job Recruitment and Turnover Report (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Department of Labor also decreased from 7.335 million to 7.079 million.

Seo Sang-young, managing director of Mirae Asset Securities, said, "Nevertheless, the reason why interest rates rose was because caution over prices and monetary policy remained strong. In the consumer confidence index, one-year expected inflation rose from 5.8% to 6.1%, and Federal Reserve Director Michael Barr's hawkish remarks (favoring monetary tightening) also expanded the interest rate rise."

He said, "Director Ba emphasized the need for additional policy adjustments, saying that there is no clear trend for the inflation rate to return to the target of 2%. In particular, he mentioned that if AI investment increases productivity and investment returns in the long term, the possibility of raising the neutral interest rate through increased capital demand cannot be ruled out, putting an additional burden on long-term interest rates."

However, John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said that it may be appropriate to raise the benchmark interest rate once more this year, but that additional measures are not urgent. As a result, the rate of increase in interest rates decreased, and the U.S. stock market also showed a decrease in decline.

In addition, it is noteworthy that Antropic's IPO investment prospectus, which is about to be listed, includes a long-term spending plan related to AI computing and infrastructure worth at least $518 billion (about 700 trillion won) over the next 10 years.

This acted as a burden on the bond market as it could lead to a surge in corporate bond issuance and a rise in long-term interest rates, but it acted as a positive factor for AI infrastructure and semiconductor-related stocks.

Most indicators showing investment sentiment in the Korean stock market rose.

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Korea Index Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) jumped 1.92%, and MSCI Emerging Index ETF also rose 0.30%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.32%, and the Dow Transportation Index also closed up 0.35%. The Russell 2000 index fell 0.35% due to interest rate issues.

KOSPI 200 overnight futures rose 0.95%.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “Today, the domestic stock market is expected to start on the rise thanks to the decline in the 10-year interest rate in the second half of the U.S. stock market and the news of the successful rebound of AI and semiconductor stocks such as Micron (+1.1%) and Meta (+3.2%).”

He said, “From the perspective of intraday supply and demand, foreign buying and selling will be a point to watch,” and added, “Over the two trading days of this week, the last week of September, foreigners are net selling about 6.2 trillion won in KOSPI, and about 87% of the total net selling amount is concentrated in semiconductors.”

The main background is Samsung Electronics' short-term profit taking and the burden of rising interest rates in the United States, but it is pointed out that the rebalancing of global pension funds at the end of the quarter also played a role.

One researcher advised, “There is a possibility that related items may be listed for sale today, the last day of the quarter, but the intensity of rebalancing will be lower than last June.” He added, “I think it would be right to open up the possibility of offsetting the burden of the discount rate due to the rise in interest rates through the performance season, which will begin in earnest in October, including Micron’s performance early in the morning tomorrow.”