
美國商務部公布8月貿易逆差達1056億美元,環比增長13.7%,超出市場預期。逆差擴大主要受AI基礎建設相關商品進口增加及關稅政策不確定性影響。儘管進口增長反映國內需求強勁,但貿易逆差仍預計拖累第三季GDP,促使高盛和亞特蘭大聯準行下調GDP成長預期。
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美國商務部公布8月貿易逆差數據顯著惡化,逆差達1056億美元,環比增長13.7%,超出市場預期。這是自2025年3月川普宣布「對等」關稅以來的最高紀錄。
〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕美國商務部最新公布的8月貿易逆差大幅飆升13.7%,總額一舉衝上1056億美元,不僅遠超出道瓊原先預期的1020億美元,更刷新自2025年3月川普宣布「對等」關稅前夕以來的最大赤字紀錄。
CNBC報導,本次逆差激增的主要推手,源自全美人工智慧(AI)基礎建設浪潮帶動的相關商品大量湧入,加上市場對進口關稅前景的不確定性,促使當月進口額顯著成長4.3%。
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雖然單月貿易逆差明顯擴大,但若拉長時間來看,今年迄今美國貿易逆差為1382億美元,仍較去年同期下降近20%。
經濟學家指出,進口增加通常會對國內生產毛額(GDP)形成拖累,但如果進口成長反映的是國內需求與消費強勁,影響就可能透過其他經濟活動抵銷。全國互助銀行(Nationwide)金融經濟學家奧倫‧克拉奇金(Oren Klachkin)表示,物價上漲放大了貿易摩擦的影響,即使如此,淨貿易仍將拖累第3季GDP成長。
克拉奇金認為,這項數據反映的並非經濟疲軟,而是「國內需求強勁」。其中,與AI建設相關商品大量進口,也成為8月進口增加的重要背景。
不過,貿易數據公布後,市場對美國第3季經濟成長的預期仍有所降溫。高盛將第3季GDP成長預期下調至3.1%,較先前預估低0.3個百分點;亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的GDPNow追蹤器,也將預期下修至3.7%,較上次更新低0.1個百分點。
換言之,美國8月貿易逆差雖因進口大增而急劇擴大,但背後同時呈現AI建設帶動商品進口、國內需求仍具支撐的兩面性;然而,貿易項目本身對第3季GDP成長的拖累,也促使市場進一步調降經濟成長預期。
一手掌握經濟脈動 點我訂閱自由財經Youtube頻道
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
美國政府將在未來數週內檢討關稅政策以應對貿易逆差壓力
Possible · Within weeks

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