The National Development and Reform Commission will announce the August economic boom signal. If the red light continues to shine, it will tie the longest record in history.

Reporter Chen Meiying/Special report

The National Development Council will announce the August economic boom signal this week. With exports, stock markets and domestic demand continuing to boom, the National Development Council holds a "very cautiously optimistic" attitude towards August's economic performance. If the red light indicating booming economic conditions continues to light up in August, it will tie the record for the longest red light in history.

Since the National Development Council compiled the boom signal in 1984, the longest red light record is nine consecutive red lights set in 2021. Since the beginning of this year, exports have been driven by strong demand for AI, and domestic demand and financial markets have performed well. The comprehensive judgment score of the boom countermeasures signal in July was 41 points, the same as in June. It has been a red light for eight consecutive months.

The National Development Council will announce a business climate signal for August this week. Driven by the continued enthusiasm of exports and stock markets, if the red light continues to shine, it will tie the record for the longest red light in history. (Central News Agency)

Looking forward to the market outlook, the National Development Council pointed out that as AI applications continue to deepen, the world's major cloud service providers accelerate the construction of AI infrastructure, and new consumer electronics products enter the preparation period, exports are expected to continue to grow; in terms of investment, the semiconductor and AI supply chain is actively expanding production, and international major manufacturers are expanding investment and procurement in Taiwan, which is also expected to drive private investment. Consumption will benefit from corporate profits, salary increases and dividend payments, a solid job market, and a recovery in the auto market. Domestic demand remains supportive.

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However, there are still uncertainties in the international economic and trade environment, including the situation in the Middle East, US tariff policies, monetary policies and fiscal changes in major countries, which must be continuously monitored.

The Chinese Academy of Economics announced this week that the September PMI is expected to break through the boom-and-bust line for the 12th consecutive month.

In addition, the Chinese Academy of Economics will also release Taiwan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for September this week. It is expected to still exceed the 50% expansion line, expanding for 12 consecutive months.

According to data from the China Academy of Economics, the manufacturing PMI reached 62.5% in August, setting a new high since August 2021 and the fastest expansion rate in the past five years. Among the five components of PMI, new orders, production quantity, and manpower employment continued to expand, supplier delivery times increased (above 50.0%), and the expansion rate of the inventory index slowed down. The outlook index for the next six months continued to rise by 0.7 percentage points to 65.2%, remaining at 60.0% for the eighth consecutive month.

The non-manufacturing managers' index NMI fell to 55.6% in August, another 1.7% drop from July. The China Economic Academy said that the overall prosperity is still quite good, but the NMI index fell in August due to the impact of stock market fluctuations on consumer confidence.

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