"China and ASEAN tentatively agree on 80% of code of conduct to prevent conflict in South China Sea"
Tentative agreement on about 80% of all provisions, issues such as legal binding remain
Quick Look
- Although China and ASEAN have tentatively agreed on about 80% of the entire provisions of the South China Sea Code of Conduct, it is expected that it will be difficult to reach an agreement within the year due to issues such as legal binding force, scope of application, and definition of terms.
- The ASEAN Summit will be held in Manila, Philippines from the 16th to the 18th to discuss related matters.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
China and ASEAN have been discussing the establishment of a code of conduct in the South China Sea, but there has been no progress, and they agreed to speed up negotiations in 2023 and conclude them by this year. China has drawn a nine-dash line in the South China Sea and claimed about 90% of the area as its own territorial sea, and the Philippines obtained a ruling from the International Permanent Court in 2016 that China's claim had no basis in international law, but China is ignoring this.
Although China and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries have made progress in negotiations to establish a code of conduct in the South China Sea to prevent conflicts between countries in the South China Sea, it is reported that it will be difficult to reach an agreement within the year, which was the original goal.
According to the Associated Press on the 12th (local time), three anonymous senior diplomats from Southeast Asian countries who are familiar with the details of the negotiations said this, saying that China and ASEAN have reached a provisional agreement on about 80% of all provisions of the South China Sea Code of Conduct through negotiations this year.
The final remaining issues, they added, include whether the agreement is legally binding, the geographical scope to which the agreement will be applied, and the definition of sensitive terms.
China and ASEAN have been discussing to prepare a code of conduct in the South China Sea, but there has been no progress, but they agreed to speed up the negotiations in 2023 and conclude them by this year.
To this end, the Philippines, which holds the ASEAN rotating chairmanship this year, is said to have secured more time for negotiators to resolve issues by holding additional related meetings at least once a month.
In addition, Malaysia, which is currently responsible for overall relations with China in ASEAN, has held at least 10 major rounds of related negotiations with China this year, ending with the round of negotiations last month.
The South China Sea issue and the current status of the Code of Conduct negotiations will be discussed as major agenda items at the ASEAN Summit to be held in Manila, Philippines from the 16th to the 18th.
State Council Premier Li Chang, who is attending the meeting as China's representative, and leaders of ASEAN member countries are also likely to discuss this issue.
Next year, Singapore will take over the chairmanship of ASEAN and continue related negotiations with China.
China has drawn nine lines (nine-dash lines) in the shape of a U in the South China Sea and has claimed that about 90% of the area within them is its territorial waters.
Accordingly, the Philippines filed a lawsuit at the Permanent Court of Justice (PCA) and obtained a ruling in 2016 that China's claims had no basis in international law, but China ignored this and insisted on its sovereignty, continuing friction with neighboring countries, including the Philippines.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Negotiations on the China-ASEAN South China Sea Code of Conduct will continue next year under Singapore's ASEAN chairmanship.
Very likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Time of final agreement on whether to grant legal binding force
- Geographical scope to which the Code of Conduct will apply
- Whether definitions of sensitive terms are agreed upon
- If an agreement is not reached within the year, negotiations will be scheduled for next year.






