The U.S. midterm elections come on Tuesday: What to choose? What are the highlights?

The U.S. midterms arrive this Tuesday (November 3). American voters will decide not who will be in the White House, but who will be in the Capitol.

Midterm elections are held every four years, right between two presidential elections. Voters in the United States who are eligible to vote will elect members to represent them in both houses of Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate. In addition, some states will hold gubernatorial elections.

But beyond these specific names being explicitly listed, voters will actually be judging something else.

J. Miles Coleman, an election analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, explained in the 2022 midterm elections that midterm elections are often regarded as "a referendum on the president and his ruling party." If the public is satisfied with the performance of the president, the president's party will generally fare better; if the public is dissatisfied, the party's performance will be worse. Currently, U.S. President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to historical lows.

What to choose in the midterm elections?

All seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election. Voters across the United States will vote for 435 voting members of the House of Representatives, each representing a district. The division of constituencies is mainly based on population distribution.

Therefore, a state with a small population like Wyoming, even though it is relatively large, only has one House seat. New Jersey, which is much smaller but more populous, has 12 seats. Members of the House of Representatives are elected every two years and serve two-year terms.

U.S. Senate terms are six years and there are 100 seats, with each state having two seats regardless of population. Every two years, about one-third of the Senate seats are up for election. Voters will vote on 35 of these seats in this year's midterm elections. So, unlike House elections, not every state will elect a senator in this midterm election.

In addition, gubernatorial elections will be held in 36 states in the United States. Governors typically serve four-year terms.

In the United States, many policy decisions are made at the state level, involving abortion rights, education issues, and even the organization and conduct of various elections. Therefore, whether a state is controlled by Democrats or Republicans can have a significant impact on the lives of local residents.

Which party currently holds the majority in the U.S. Congress?

Currently, the Republican Party, the party to which President Trump belongs, holds a majority in both houses of Congress, but the lead is not large.

The House of Representatives currently has 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and one independent member who usually votes with Republicans. Two seats remain vacant.

Experts believe the Democrats are likely to regain a majority in the House of Representatives in the upcoming elections. Coleman said in an interview with CBS at the end of October: "It would be surprising if the Democrats couldn't even win the House of Representatives."

The Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 45 Democrats, as well as two independent senators who typically vote with Democrats. If there is a 50-50 tie in the Senate vote, the vice president will cast the deciding vote. Therefore, Vice President Vance, a Republican, is a critical vote.

Why are midterm elections so important?

While midterm elections typically have lower turnout than presidential elections, the results can still have a significant impact on American politics for years to come.

Although the President of the United States has great power and can directly make some decisions through executive orders (Executive Orders), many policy measures still need to be approved by Congress, otherwise they cannot be implemented.

Therefore, if the Republicans can maintain their majorities in both houses of Congress, it will be much easier for Trump to implement his intentions. If the Democrats win a majority in one or even both houses, it will be more difficult for Trump to implement changes in domestic and foreign affairs.

Which elections are the key to victory or defeat?

In the House of Representatives election, the Democratic Party only needs a net increase of four seats to gain a majority of 218 seats. Of the 435 precinct elections, only a few are in doubt, including parts of Iowa, Virginia and Montana.

In the Senate election, the election in Texas is particularly interesting. According to the latest polls, Democratic candidate James Talarico is neck and neck with Republican candidate Ken Paxton.

To gain a majority in the Senate, Democrats must gain a net gain of four seats. It would be blockbuster news if Texas became one of those seats. A Democratic candidate has not won a state election in the state since 1994.

Today, Talarico even has the support of some members of the Bush family, a Republican political family that has produced two U.S. presidents.

In the gubernatorial election, the United States may elect a black female governor for the first time.

In Minnesota, Democrat Amy Klobuchar is running against Black Republican Lisa DeMuth for the governorship. In Georgia, black Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is also running for governor, her opponent is Republican Rick Jackson.

Demuth's chances of winning in Minnesota are slim. The state is generally seen as heavily Democratic, and Klobuchar, the longtime senator, is better known.

But in Georgia, the two candidates are very close, according to the latest polls. Bottoms has a real chance of winning.