French President Emmanuel Macron will lead an expanded tour of four Gulf countries from Monday to Wednesday, respectively, starting in Kuwait, then the Emirates, and Bahrain, before making a state visit to Qatar at the invitation of its Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad.
It is very likely that this tour will be Macron's last in the region, given that his second presidential term ends next spring, while presidential elections will be held in less than 200 days.
Elysee: France is a reliable ally
There are a set of messages and goals that President Macron seeks to deliver and achieve, the first of which, according to what Elysee sources confirm, is “a reminder that France is a reliable ally and a partner that stands by the countries concerned.” This was its position in the past, and it will be the same in the future.”
France has defense agreements with three Gulf countries, namely Qatar, Kuwait, and the Emirates. It also concluded a “strategic partnership” agreement with Saudi Arabia last year, and during the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Paris last August, the first meeting of the Strategic Partnership Council between the two countries was held, chaired by Macron.
Through this visit, Paris seeks to emphasize the “steadfastness of its position” based on enhancing the security and stability of the region “by strengthening the strategic and economic partnerships” it establishes with the Gulf countries. Hence, defense issues in all their forms will be present in the talks that Macron will hold with the leaders of the four countries.
However, Paris seeks, in parallel, to advance its economic and investment relations in the Gulf region, which includes strengthening the presence of its companies operating there. A main goal of the visit emerges, and its title is: strengthening the access of oil supplies and its derivatives to France.
Therefore, a group of issues will be discussed, the first of which is securing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, freedom of navigation in it, and consideration of what has been achieved in providing alternative routes to deliver oil to global markets.
The situation of France is no different from the case of other countries that suffer from high prices of energy and its derivatives, which affects the state of the French economy and the country’s budget, which has been witnessing a student and social movement for several weeks, and it will emerge again strongly next Saturday, when massive demonstrations are expected to take place in protest against high prices, the decline in purchasing power, and the rise in the prices of oil and gas derivatives.
A state of non-peace and non-war
In addition to the above, mutual investments will be one of the files that President Macron will discuss, including joint projects related to artificial intelligence and energy.
According to what is confirmed by the Elysee circles, the French President’s discussions will address, in addition to political issues related to the situation in the Gulf and what Paris calls “a state of non-peace and non-war,” coupled with security and defense issues, energy, and how to overcome its crisis through alternative paths, and what Paris considers “comprehensive challenges” that address the environment and its effects.
Elysee sources were keen to emphasize “permanent communication” between Paris and Riyadh, and attributed Macron’s Saudi tour not including the recent important visit made by Prince Mohammed bin Salman to France.
Paris feels, as its sources say, “the need to go to the region to continue the dialogue, evaluate the situation at a critical stage, and continue to build bilateral relations in their various dimensions, in addition to continuing to defend our strategic, economic, and defense interests, and the interests of the French people affected by this crisis, which they did not choose.”
While the state of “no war and no peace” continues, Paris believes that the situation today “has entered into a real strategic impasse,” and that “escalation and the military option” in the war between the United States and Iran “have not achieved any results.” According to these sources, “France’s approach is dialogue.”
It is worth recalling that Paris launched a joint initiative with Britain several months ago based on ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and escorting tankers and ships passing through it if two conditions are met: First: an Iranian commitment not to target passing naval vessels. The second: The United States intends to lift the blockade on Iranian ports. The situation is that neither condition was met, and the European initiative remained subject to the development of the situation.
In return, the European Union is active in providing more effectiveness for the ASPEDS mission in the Red Sea, which was launched in the year 2024. Kaya Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy official, called on the countries participating in the aforementioned operation to increase their contributions in naval vessels in view of the increasing importance of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb in providing a secondary route to the Strait of Hormuz.
Regarding the visit, Macron’s tour will begin in Kuwait, where he will discuss with its Emir, Sheikh Meshaal Al-Ahmad, “the two parties’ cooperation in the fields of defense, infrastructure, and health,” and in the Emirates, where he will meet with the President of the State, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the talks will focus primarily, according to the Elysee, on issues of defense, security, and new technologies, most notably artificial intelligence, which constitute the “pillars of strategic partnerships” between the two parties.
A data center is currently being built in France, funded by Emirati investment funds, as part of an investment agreement between the two countries worth 50 billion euros.
From Abu Dhabi, Macron will head on Tuesday to Bahrain, his third stop, to meet with King Hamad bin Isa, where the files of the discussions do not differ from the previous ones in the first two capitals, and, according to Paris, they address the regional situation, defense and economic relations, with special attention to Bahraini investments in France.
From Manama, Macron will arrive on Tuesday afternoon in Doha, his last stop, where he will pay a two-day state visit: October 20 and 21.
The Elysee said that the goal of the visit is to “deepen the strategic partnership between the two countries, enhance economic and defense exchanges, and consult on major regional and international files.” He will also participate the next day in the plenary session of the “Network of Sovereign Funds for One Planet” on the climate file.
The French President, along with officials, led by Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, is accompanied by a delegation of senior officials from major companies active in the energy, defense and advanced technologies sectors, most notably artificial intelligence.
For several years, Macron has been pushing to strengthen partnerships in these sectors, and the goal is to bridge the gap that separates France, as well as other European countries, from the two most advanced countries in the artificial intelligence sector, which are the United States and China. This race needs to pump a lot of money, which justifies Paris's desire to work on building partnerships in this competitive sector.
The Saudi Air Defense Forces succeeded in confronting various types of air attacks that targeted many areas, most notably winged cruise missiles, thus confirming their high combat readiness and exceptional efficiency in protecting the security of the homeland and developing an integrated safety system that protects civilian objects and vital infrastructure from all cross-border threats.
During the past few years, a number of winged missiles were intercepted, the most recent of which was Thursday, in the airspace of Medina, and another missile was intercepted over Al-Kharj Governorate, in addition to confronting 5 missiles that targeted the capital, Riyadh, including a missile that targeted the vicinity of King Khalid International Airport.
The successful interception operations over residential areas resulted in falling shrapnel and debris, resulting in limited material damage, including about 15 homes and minor injuries among civilians. However, these threats did not succeed in achieving their sabotage goals thanks to the combat readiness of the air defense systems.
Advanced efficiency...and defensive integration
The Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces deal with high efficiency in the challenges posed by cruise missiles and low-altitude air threats, relying on an integrated and interconnected air defense network that is considered one of the strongest and most modern in the region.
Saudi Arabia has advanced capabilities in confronting these threats through mechanisms it has developed over the years, starting with monitoring and early warning layers that detect hidden threats, through precise interception systems that are distinguished by their superior ability to track and intercept winged missiles and drones with complete accuracy, all the way to short- and medium-range defense systems to protect vital installations, airports, and urban areas from any potential intrusion.
The nature of the threat...and the challenges of technical tracking
A cruise missile is defined as a suicide drone similar in structure to small fighters. It operates with a jet engine (turboprop or jet) that enables it to fly long distances and cover thousands of kilometres. Cruise missiles represent a complex security challenge to air defense networks. Due to its small radar footprint and its ability to fly at very low altitudes, it is obscured from the conventional radar horizon until late in its flight path.
Brigadier General Hassan Al-Shehri, a military analyst and expert, said that the cruise missile is a guided missile that flies inside the atmosphere, with a jet engine and wings, like a suicide drone. It flies at a very low altitude, making it difficult for radars to detect it.
He added: “The strengths of the cruise missile lie in its high accuracy, the ability to program a path to circumvent defenses, and its small radar footprint. Various countries stand out in its manufacture, the most important of which are the United States, China, France, and Britain, with different types of winged missile families.”
Regarding the most prominent air defense systems capable of confronting it, Al-Shehri said it is the “Patriot” system, which is available in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. It is a mobile system designed to intercept aircraft, low-profile “cruise” missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles, in addition to other systems.
He added: “More important than the system are airborne early warning aircraft, which are also available in Saudi Arabia, in addition to combat aircraft, which deal with a cruise missile that flies at a low level, below the horizon of ground radars, and its early detection requires aerial radar.”
Brigadier General Al-Shehri noted the high capabilities of the Saudi air defense in dealing with this type of missiles, pointing out that Saudi Arabia has a multi-layered defense that deals with various types of threats, in addition to fighters and early warning aircraft, and the accumulated combat experience that the Saudi air defense has acquired, most of which succeeded in intercepting threats coming from the Houthi militia or Iran and Iraq.
Brigadier General Hassan Al-Shehri explained that field data and data reveal the falsity of the narrative spread by the Houthi militia regarding its claim to manufacture these weapons locally. Pointing out that the United Nations team of experts has presented evidence since 2020 proving that some components of the “Quds 1” missile are based on an unlicensed copy of a small Czech jet engine, with information suggesting that it was developed using advanced Chinese technologies, as estimates indicate that the “Quds 1” is nothing but the Houthi name for the Iranian missile “Pawah”, given the complete identicalness between them in shape and design.
Al-Shehri added that the high manufacturing quality of these missiles makes it likely that they will be entirely produced outside Yemen, pointing out that the designs and sensitive components of the engines and guidance systems come from multiple sources, most notably Iran, China and Russia.
The military expert confirmed that the Houthi militia completely lacks these complex manufacturing capabilities, as members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah in Lebanon are responsible for the actual operation and launch operations, in addition to the assistance of Houthi elements who previously received extensive training courses in Iran and southern Lebanon.
Regarding the mechanism of the arrival of these weapons, Brigadier General Al-Shehri explains that the process depends on organized smuggling and financing networks, where the missiles are shipped after being produced externally in the form of fragmented parts and components into Yemen, to be later assembled in workshops and designated secret areas, which gave some Houthi elements practical experience in assembly and assembly techniques, to a greater degree than their limited launching capabilities.
At the conclusion of his speech, the military analyst pointed out that the militia had recently suffered heavy human and technical losses, including the deaths of a number of Iranian experts supervising these systems, which was directly reflected in its field efficiency. This led to the failure of more than 4 missiles to be launched during the past week alone, and their ricocheting and falling inside Yemeni territory.
