Is Shen Boyang's "ocean current" effect spreading across Taiwan? Fanzhuan reveals the changes in the election situation in Beijing: Online voice is turning into physical mobilization

Changes have occurred in the Taipei mayoral election. The latest TVBS poll shows that the support gap between Chiang Wanan and Shen Boyang has narrowed from 28 percentage points to 8 percentage points. New Taipei City's Su Qiaohui's support has increased in some polls. Taichung City's He Xinchun and Jiang Qichen are also in a tug of war. In this regard, the Facebook fan page "Voice and Politics" analyzed that the "ocean current" set off by Shen Boyang has moved from online voice to cross-county and city physical activities, but it is still worth observing whether it can further affect the election in the six cities.

Fanzhuan pointed out that a TVBS poll on October 8 showed that Jiang Wanan’s support was 49% and Shen Boyang’s was 41%. Compared with 58% and 30% in May, the gap between the two parties narrowed by 20 percentage points. On the other hand, Shen Boyang's YouTube live broadcast viewing volume increased from 8.45% on July 17 to 63.19% on October 10, but online volume is not equal to votes. Ruan Junda, director of the New Media Center of the Democratic Progressive Party, also reminded that Shen Boyang is still lagging behind Jiang Wanan in the current polls, and the online popularity of green camp candidates in other counties and cities has not increased simultaneously.

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Fanzhuan stated that the New Taipei City Trustees Association poll showed that Su Qiaohui led Li Sichuan with 43.1% and 30%, with support increasing by 7.9 percentage points from August; but another TVBS poll showed that Li Sichuan led Su Qiaohui with 42.6% and 35.9%. In Taichung, the Friends of Trust in Taiwan announced that Jiang Qichen had 34.3% and He Xinchun 32.4%, with a gap of only 1.9 percentage points. Fanzhuan believes that whether these changes are related to the impact of "ocean currents" across counties and cities cannot be determined solely by polls. Local operations, candidate images and municipal evaluations may also affect the results.

The fan page further pointed out that Shen Boyang has been to Kaohsiung, Taoyuan, Taichung and New Taipei Province since September, sharing the stage with Lai Ruilong, Huang Shijie, He Xinchun, Su Qiaohui and others. The maiden voyage of the "Ocean Current" on October 11 attracted more than 2,000 motorcycles to participate. The number of views of the "Ocean Current"-related pan-green YouTube live broadcast that day also increased from about 96,000 the day before to 155,000, an increase of about 61%.

Fanzhuan bluntly stated that it cannot yet be said that "Ocean Current" has changed the political landscape of the six cities, but supporters have shown signs of physical cohesion from watching online, making support items, to going out of their homes to participate in activities in various places. The next key is whether these cross-county and city activities can form sustained interpersonal connections and further translate into actual support for local elections.